News From The Grain Floor 06-17-15

Yesterday’s market action saw a decent amount of short covering especially in beans…however, open interest changes were rather modest (corn down 7940, beans down 2158, meal up 1541, soy oil up 2108 and wheat down 3354). The volumes were rather heavy on Tuesday (over 300k lots traded in beans…corn over 550k contracts…wheat near 140k only) with open interest in the July contracts declining orderly. The main fundamental explanation for yesterday’s rally in beans was the unplanted bean acres in parts of the Midwest (Missouri and Kansas)…there is concern that some of these will not be planted. The June 30th planted acreage report will be key especially for bean acreage that some see higher than the March intentions…Informa will have its estimates out by the end of the week

Weather Highlights

  • Heaviest Rain in Far SE Plains Next 2 Days, Near OH River Fri./Sat.
  • Seeding Interruptions Brief Until Late Next Week in Far W. Midwest
  • Heat Stress Continues Next 10 Days for Corn in GA/Carolinas
  • Rains to Ease Dryness in Western Australia Wheat This Week

Overnight closes

  • SX up 6 ¼ at 933 ¾
  • CZ up 2 ¾ at 372 ¾
  • WU up 6 ½ at 501
  • KC WU up 6 ¾ at 522 ¼
  • MWU up 7 at 563 ½
  • SMZ up 1.40 at 303.30
  • BOZ up 4 at 3335

Overnight volume

  • SX 24,262
  • CZ 18,468
  • WU 6,505
  • KC WU 1,245
  • MWU 275
  • SMZ 4,579
  • BOZ 4,047

Overnight Option Volume

  • Corn 6,546
  • Beans 19,941
  • Meal 1,440
  • Bean oil 14
  • Wheat 2,137

Active Strikes in Overnight Trade

  • SN 940 put – traded 2,579
  • SN 970/980 call spread vs 966 – traded 590
  • SX 980/1000 call spread – traded 500
  • SX 960/1000 call spread – traded 880
  • SX 940 call vs 937 – traded 510
  • CN 400 call – traded 1,908
  • WZ 570 call – traded 415
  • WQ 520/540 call spread – traded 400
  • SMN 310 put – traded 229

Funds

COT

COT

COT

Current

2-Jun

9-Jun

to COT

10-Jun

11-Jun

12-Jun

15-Jun

16-Jun

Estimate

Corn

-176210

-128856

47354

-14000

0

-8000

-8000

8000

-150856

Wheat

-96325

-64619

31706

-13000

-6000

0

-10000

0

-93619

Soybeans

-79374

-64155

15219

-3000

-5000

0

0

14000

-58155

Soymeal

-11017

-768

10249

-4000

0

3000

-4000

7000

1232

Soyoil

61174

79811

18637

0

-4000

-2000

-4000

3000

72811

News

Dollar and gold lower. Crude, silver, and stock market higher

Nikkei down .19%

Hang Seng up .7%

Shanghai Index up 1.6%

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude a draw of 2.9 MB expecting a draw of 1.7 MB
  • Gas a draw of 2.9 MB expecting a draw of 314,000 barrels

Today is the second day of the June FOMC two day policy meeting. Fed announcement today at 1 pm CST.

China grain markets closings = beans up 37, corn up 14, meal up 48, palm oil up 24, bean oil up 60.

Malaysian palm oil closed unchanged

Malaysia to keep July palm oil tax at 0%

Hearing China is buying South American beans for Aug-Sept shipment

Taiwan bought 97,420 tons of US wheat for Aug-Sept shipment.

Japan seeks 18,720 tons of feed wheat and 33,760 tons of barley via SBS tender for Sept-Nov shipment

Indonesia seeks 50,000 tons of optional origin corn for Aug-Oct shipment

Mexico, Egypt , and Malaysia are all shopping for corn.

Iraq seeks 30,000 tons of rice optional origin.

CNGOIC estimated China’s ‘15/16 rapeseed imports at 4.8 MMT vs. ‘14/15 record of 5.1 MMT

China’s JC Intelligence estimated China’s ‘15/16 rapeseed imports at 4.2 MMT

China to scrap its rapeseed stockpiling policy this year.

Argentina Ag Min – Argentina farmers selling as of June 10th

  • ‘14/15 wheat crop 80.11% sold vs. 56.65% a year ago
  • ‘14/15 corn crop 51.86% sold vs. 41.61% a year ago
  • ‘14/15 bean crop 44.86% sold vs. 38.49% a year ago

Ukraine Ag Minister said Ukraine exported 33.5 MMT of grain in ‘14/15

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine’s ‘14/15 grain ending stocks will increase by 3.5 MMT .

Macquarie estimated Ukraine’s 2015 wheat crop at 25.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 24.0 MMT

Moving averages:

  • SX 50 day 934 ½
  • CZ 20 day 374 ½
  • CZ 50 day 383
  • WU 20 day 511 ½
  • WU 50 day 505
  • MWU 20 day 571
  • MWU 50 day 565
  • MWU 100 day 575 ½
  • SMZ 20 day 295.30
  • SMZ 50 day 302.30
  • SMZ 100 day 310.50
  • BOZ 20 day 3348
  • BOZ 200 day 3268

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon – no changes

  • Wheat = 18
  • Oats = 12
  • Corn =25
  • Ethanol = 22
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 0
  • Bean oil = 3,205
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 1,466
  • KC wheat = 48
  • Minneapolis wheat =  522

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn – 1,456,917 open, down 7,940
  • Total soybeans – 738,421 open, down 2,158
  • Total soymeal – 400,923 open, up 1,541
  • Total bean oil – 416,570 open, up 2,108
  • Total wheat – 440,554 open, down 3,354
  • Total KC wheat – 162,501 open, down 666

Upcoming reports/events.

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a draw of 1.1 MB
    • Gas a draw of 800,000 barrels
    • Distillates a build of 1.0 MB
    • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST
    • Ramadan begins tomorrow
    • Weekly US jobless claims come out tomorrow at 730 am CST
    • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
    • Hearing Informa comes out tomorrow, but some saying it comes out on Friday… with their US 2015 acreage estimate updates. Previous estimates from Informa were
  1. 2015 US corn area was estimated at 88.737 MA vs. USDA March estimate of 89.1 MA
  2. 2015 US bean area was estimated at 87.185 MA vs. USDA March estimate of 84.635 MA
  3. 2015 US all wheat area was estimated at 55.947 MA vs. USDA March estimate of 55.4 MA
  4. 2015 US spring wheat area estimated at 13.219 MA  vs. USDA March estimate of 12.97 MA
  5. 2015 US all cotton area was estimated at 9.334 MA vs. USDA March estimate of 9.549 MA
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST expecting +95 BCF.
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s June 1-20th palm oil exports on Monday June 22.
  • USDA acreage and quarterly stocks report Tuesday June 30th
  • USDA to restart monthly Census crush reports in July 2015.

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE