News From The Grain Floor 04/23/15

Overnight closes:

  • SN up 4 ¾ at 976 ½
  • CN up ¾ at 380 ¼
  • WN up 3 ¼ at 502 ¼
  • KC WN up 6 ¾ at 524
  • MWN up 4 ¾ at 560 ½
  • SMN up 1.60 at 315.40
  • BON up 17 at 3192

Overnight volume:

  • SN 15,809
  • CN 32,315
  • WN 8,876
  • KC WN 1,661
  • MWN 352
  • SMN 5,487
  • BON 10,495

Overnight Option Volume

  • Corn 845
  • Beans 2,251
  • Meal 59
  • Bean 292
  • Wheat 592

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

  • WK 500 C 1000
  • WN 400 P 94
  • WN 380 P 8

Funds

COT

COT

COT

Current

7-Apr

14-Apr

to COT

15-Apr

16-Apr

17-Apr

20-Apr

21-Apr

22-Apr

Estimate

Corn

-39364

-86826

-47462

4000

1000

6000

-3000

-5000

-1000

-84826

Wheat

-82132

-92,591

-10459

-5000

2000

-3000

3500

4000

-1000

-92,091

Soybeans

-48424

-76269

-27845

5000

1000

0

5000

-4000

-2000

-71269

Soymeal

-2838

-22711

-19873

-2000

1000

2000

2000

-3000

-1000

-23711

Soyoil

-840

12384

13224

4000

-1000

-2000

1000

2000

-1000

15384

 Open Interest

We have 5 trading days until FND. Open interest in May contracts is as follows: corn 203,993, soybeans 120,979, soymeal 49,089, soyoil 46,789 and wheat 43,715. Total open interest yesterday was 6,579 in corn, down 12,433 in soybeans, down 521 in soymeal, down 3,535 in soyoil and down 3,153 in wheat. Since the March 31st reports, total open interest changes are rather small: corn +13,530, soybeans -26,646, soymeal +465, soyoil +966 and wheat +21,020.

News:

Dollar and stock market lower. Gold, gold, and crude oil higher

Nikkei up .27%

Hang Seng down .4%

Shanghai index  up .4%

April Flash mfg PMIs

  • China’s HSBC flash at 49.2 (one year low) vs. March final of 49.6
  • Euro Zone flash at 51.9, expecting 52.6, and vs. March final of 52.2
  • German flash at 51.9, expecting 53.0, and vs. March final of 52.8
  • France flash at 48.4, expecting 49.1, and vs. March final of 48.8

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at +1K to 295K , expecting 290K

China grain market closings = beans up 43, corn up 10, soymeal up 3, palm oil unchanged, and bean oil up 8.

Malaysian palm oil down 1

Malaysian Palm Oil Board said Malaysia’s April 1-20th palm oil production is up 17% from March 1-20th.

Brazil truck drivers call new strike starting today.

Hearing China only bought 2 bean cargoes this week. One from Brazil for Aug-Sept shipment and the other from the US for November shipment

Some Chinese crushers are still trying to resell May and roll to June cargoes.

China sold 235,000 tons of wheat at Wednesday’s auction, they offered 833,000 tons. China did not sell any imported wheat at auction, they offered 30,000 tons

China auctioned 50,000 tons of rapeseed oil from reserves today

China auction 330,000 tons of corn from reserves today

Talk on Wednesday of another bird flu outbreak in Georgia.

Bird flu outbreaks may cause a drop in feed demand

Oil World EU July 2014 –March 2015 crush

  • EU rapeseed crush at 19.5 MMT vs. 18.8 MMT a year ago
  • EU soybean crush at 10.0 MMT vs. 9.8 MMT a year ago
  • EU sunseed crush at 5.7 MMT vs. 5.9 MMT a year ago

India analysts estimated India’s 2015 wheat crop at 87.9 MMT (smallest crop since 2011) vs. 2014 record wheat crop of 95.9 MMT due to heavy rains and hail storms

Southern Indian mills may import 150,000 tons of wheat in ‘15/16 vs. 45,000 tons in ‘14/15. India has already imported 80,000 tons of wheat for the ‘15/16 season

India’s government said India’s wheat stocks as of April 1st were 17.2 MMT

India’s government said crops on 9.38 MH have been damaged since March 1st , more than double the 50 year average

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat ‘14/15 397,500 ‘15/16 126,700 (expecting 50 -350,000 tons)
  • Corn ‘14/15 867,900 ‘15/16 6,200 (expecting 400 -700,000 tons)
  • Beans ‘14/15 102,100 ‘15/16 8,100 (expecting 100 -450,000 tons)
  • Meal ‘14/15 107,400 ‘15/16 22,800 (expecting 250 -450,000 tons)
  • Bean oil ‘14/15 4,400 (expecting 0-20,000 tons)

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 397,500 metric tons for delivery in 2014/2015 were up noticeably from the previous and from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for South Korea (75,400 MT), Japan (72,600 MT), the Philippines (59,300 MT, including 10,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,100 MT), Taiwan (45,600 MT), Mexico (45,500 MT), Guatemala (22,700 MT, including 20,200 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Peru (20,800 MT). Decreases were reported for Ecuador (600 MT) and Tunisia (300 MT). Net sales of 126,700 MT for 2015/2016 were primarily for the Philippines (46,000 MT), Taiwan (39,700 MT), Colombia (18,000 MT), and Trinidad (16,500 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (8,000 MT). Exports of 557,300 MT were up 45 percent from the previous week and 40 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (120,600 MT), Japan (101,200 MT), Thailand (56,500 MT), the Philippines (49,300 MT), South Korea (47,700 MT), and Nigeria (40,000 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 867,900 MT for delivery in 2014/2015 were up 48 percent from the previous week and 68 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Japan (336,000 MT, including 82,600 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 7,100 MT), Mexico (156,100 MT), Colombia (149,000 MT, including 30,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 28,200 MT), Saudi Arabia (84,500 MT, including 79,500 MT switched from unknown destinations), and South Korea (67,900 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (119,400 MT), Guatemala (6,200 MT), and the Dominican Republic (2,100 MT). Net sales of 6,200 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for unknown destinations (3,400 MT) and Trinidad (2,800 MT). Exports of 1,041,100 MT were up 20 percent from the previous week and 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (289,100 MT), Mexico (218,600 MT), Saudi Arabia (158,400 MT), South Korea (138,900 MT), Colombia (71,900 MT), and Taiwan (69,300 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 102,100 MT for 2014/2015 were down 67 percent from the previous week and 29 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for China (32,300 MT, including 30,000 MT switched from Vietnam), Mexico (23,500 MT), Japan (20,900 MT), Morocco (20,000 MT), Taiwan (15,300 MT, including 15,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,500 MT), and Indonesia (11,200 MT, including 10,000 MT switched from unknown destinations). Decreases were reported for Vietnam (37,000 MT), unknown destinations (1,300 MT), and Israel (1,100 MT). Net sales of 8,100 MT for 2015/2016 were for Japan. Exports of 155,900 MT were down 72 percent from the previous week and 75 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (50,100 MT), China (32,900 MT), Indonesia (25,700 MT), Taiwan (19,700 MT), Thailand (7,600 MT), and Canada (6,500 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 107,400 MT for 2014/2015 were down 18 percent from the previous week and 30 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Venezuela (58,000 MT, including 42,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Thailand (45,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), the Dominican Republic (33,500 MT), Mexico (27,400 MT), Canada (16,200 MT), and Colombia (12,800 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (96,800 MT), Panama (11,200 MT), Vietnam (4,100 MT), and Ecuador (4,000 MT). Net sales of 22,800 MT for 2015/2016 were reported primarily for El Salvador (9,000 MT), Ecuador (9,000 MT), unknown destinations (2,400 MT), and Guatemala (1,900 MT). Exports of 171,400 MT were down 32 percent from the previous week and 40 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Venezuela (42,000 MT), Ecuador (38,000 MT), Mexico (22,200 MT), Colombia (17,300 MT), Canada (17,300 MT), Peru (13,300 MT), and Japan (4,700 MT).
  • Bean oil –  Net sales of 4,400 MT for 2014/2015 were down 3 percent from the previous week and 70 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Colombia (5,600 MT) and Canada (1,200 MT), were partially offset by decreases for Morocco (2,000 MT), Mexico (400 MT), and Peru (100 MT). Exports of 12,200 MT were up 45 percent from the previous week, but down 39 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were the Dominican Republic (4,400 MT), Mexico (3,600 MT), Jamaica (3,500 MT), and Canada (500 MT).

Stats Canada came out this morning with their 2015 crop planting intentions report

  • All wheat at 24.8 MA vs. average estimate of 24.2 MA and vs. 2014 area of 23.835 MA
  • Spring wheat at 19.043 MA vs. average estimate of 17.9 MA and vs. 2014 area of 17.409 MA
  • Durum wheat at 5.5 MA vs. average estimate of 5.3 MA vs. 2014 area of 4.75 MA
  • Canola at 19.4 MA vs. average estimate of 20.2 MA and vs. 2014 area of 20.325 MA
  • Oats at 3.6 MA vs. average estimate of 3.1 MA and vs. 2014 area of 2.798 MA
  • Barley at 7.083 MA vs. average estimate of 6.7 MA and vs. 2014 area of 5.880 MA
  • Flax at 1.05 MA vs. average estimate of 1.7 MA and vs. 2014 area of 1.555 MA
  • Corn at 3.689 MA vs. average estimate of 3.1 MA and vs. 2014 area of 3.078 MA
  • Beans at 4.619 MA vs. average estimate of 6.0 MA and vs. 2014 area of 5.562 MA

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon – no changes

  • Wheat = 0
  • Oats = 0
  • Corn =59
  • Ethanol =173
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 1
  • Bean oil = 3,335
  • Soy meal = 0
  • Rice = 1,307
  • KC wheat = 295
  • Minneapolis wheat =  357

Moving averages:

  • SN 20 day 973 ¼
  • SN 50 day 987 ½
  • CN 20 day 387 ¼
  • CN 50 day 392 ¼
  • WN 20 day 510 ½
  • WN 50 day 512
  • SMN 20 day 317.60
  • SMN 50 day 323.70
  • BON 20 day 3139
  • BON 50 day 3159
  • BON 100 day  3204

Open interest as of yesterday’s close:

  • Total corn 1,363,415 open, down 6,579
  • Total beans 737,266 open, down 12,433
  • Total meal 346,803 open, down 521
  • Total bean oil 384,735 open, down 3,535
  • Total wheat 452,792 open, down 3,153
  • Total KC wheat 156,443 open, down 1,760

Upcoming reports/events.

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST expecting +84 BCF.
  • May options expire tomorrow at 115 pm CST.
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s April 1-25th palm oil exports on Monday
  • FOMC two day policy meeting Tuesday and Wednesday.
  • Fed announcement Wednesday at 1 pm CST.
  • Position day for May futures is Wednesday. Traders should be out of long positions by the close that day or risk delivery .
  • First Notice Day for May futures is Thursday April 30th.
  • US EPA said on Friday April 10th they will propose biofuel use targets for 2015 by June 1st and will re-propose biofuel targets for 2014 that reflect volumes of renewable fuel actually used in 2014.
  • USDA to restart monthly Census crush reports in July 2015.

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE