News From The Grain Floor 04/17/15

July beans, corn, wheat, KC wheat, Minneapolis wheat, soymeal , and bean oil is spot month today.

Weather Highlights

  • Showers in central Kansas are forecast to expand in the central Plains through the weekend, bringing 0.5 to 2 inches of rain to 80 percent of the wheat belt

Overnight closes:

  • SN up 1 at 970
  • CN down 1 ¼ at 382
  • WN up 1 at 491 ¾
  • KC WN up 3 ½ at 517 ½
  • MWN unchanged at 546 ½
  • SMN up 1.70 at 313.90
  • BON down 11 at 3186

Overnight volume:

  • SN 11,177
  • CN 15,228
  • WN 7,301
  • KC WN 2,417
  • MWN 450
  • SMN 9,092
  • BON 9,530

Overnight Option Volume

  • Corn 362
  • Beans 1,735
  • Meal 47
  • Bean oil 30
  • Wheat 1,050

Active Strikes in Overnight Trade

  • SK 980 calls – traded 550
  • SN 900/1040 call spread – traded 200
  • WN 650 calls – traded 402

Significant OI changes from previous session

  • SK 950 C decreased 1,537 (total 3,562)
  • SK 940 P decreased 1,640 (total 13,180)
  • SK 950 P decreased 1,293 (total 12,601)
  • SM 950 C increased 2,648 (total 6,489)
  • SM 950 P increased 1,614 (total 5,504)
  • SN 910 P increased 1,777 (total 2,052)
  • SN 940 P decreased 1,498 (total 10,322)
  • CK 370 P decreased 2,182 (total 15,579)
  • CU 450 C increased 4,400 (total 12,174)
  • CZ 500 C decreased 1,891 (total 37,881)
  • CZ 350 P increased 1,159 (total 40,255

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

  • CN 420 P 19

Funds

COT

COT

COT

Current

31-Mar

7-Apr

to COT

8-Apr

9-Apr

10-Apr

13-Apr

14-Apr

15-Apr

16-Apr

Estimate

Corn

-28767

-39364

-10597

-7000

-2000

-3000

-9000

6000

4000

1000

-49364

Wheat

-83136

-82,132

1004

-1000

-4000

5000

-11000

-6000

-5000

2000

-102,132

Soybeans

-43338

-48424

-5086

1000

-9000

-2000

-3000

7000

5000

1000

-48424

Soymeal

9711

-2838

-12549

1000

-4000

-2000

-1000

3000

-2000

1000

-6838

Soyoil

-8420

-840

7580

-1000

-1000

2000

-1000

2000

4000

-1000

3160

News:

Nikkei down 1.17%

Hang Seng down .3%

Shanghai index up 2.2%

China grain market closings = beans down 34, corn up 21, meal down 3, palm oil unchanged, and bean oil down 12

Malaysian palm oil up .09%

EPA said US generated 1.24 BLN ethanol blending credits in March vs. 1.1 BLN in February

EPA said US generated 191 MLN biodiesel blending credits in March vs. 138 MLN in February

Indonesia Palm Oil Association said Indonesia exported 2.03 MMT of palm oil in March up 14% from a month ago.

Oil World said India imported 4.3 MMT of palm oil between Oct 2014 –March 2015 vs. 3.9 MMT a year ago

Oil World said India imported 1.1 MMT of bean oil between Oct ’14 –March ’15 vs. 625,000 tons a year ago

Oil World said India imported 828,000 tons of sunflower oil between Oct ’14 – March ’15 vs. 668,000 tons a year ago

Oil World said India imported 213,000 tons of rapeseed oil between Oct ’14 – March ’15 vs. 69,000 tons a year ago

Russia’s Ag Min proposes to cancel wheat export tax from July 1st, Russian government will decide in May or June .

Russia’s statistics agency said Russia’s April 1st grain stocks were at 22.7 MMT up 17% from a year ago

Ukraine’s statistics agency said Ukraine’s April 1st grain stocks were at 16.2 MMT up 33% from a year ago

COPA said Canadian crushers crushed 137,624 tons of canola for the week ending April 15th up 3.4% from a week ago

COPA said Canadian crushers crushed 46,616 tons of beans for the week ending April 15th down 5.3% from a week ago

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange –  weekly Argentina crop progress report

  • Argentine bean harvest is 32.5% complete vs. 13.8% a week ago and vs. 21.4% a year ago
  • Argentine bean crop estimated at 58.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Argentine corn harvest is 24.1% complete vs. 17.1% a week ago and vs. 19.7% a year ago
  • Argentine corn crop estimated at 23.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Argentine sunflower harvest is complete.
  • Argentine sunflower harvested area at 1.24 MH
  • Argentine sunflower production estimated at 2.75 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon – no changes

  • Wheat = 0
  • Oats = 0
  • Corn =59
  • Ethanol =173
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 1
  • Bean oil = 3,335
  • Soy meal = 0
  • Rice = 1,307
  • KC wheat = 295
  • Minneapolis wheat =  357

Moving averages:

  • SN 20 day is 974 ½
  • CN 20 day is 390 ½
  • CN 50 day is 394
  • SMN 20 day is 319.10
  • SMN 50 day is 324.00
  • BON 20 day is 3126
  • BON 50 day is 3161
  • BON 100 day is 3212

Open interest as of yesterday’s close:

  • Total corn 1,401,460 open, up 4,718
  • Total beans 759,752 open, down 20,787
  • Total meal 345,466 open, down 2,051
  • Total bean oil 389,777 open, up 953
  • Total wheat 474,784 open, down 655
  • Total KC wheat 157,230 open, up 1,486

Upcoming reports/events.

  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST.
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek estimate Malaysia’s April 1-20th palm oil exports on Monday
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST.
  • Stats Canada comes out on Thursday April 23rdwith Canada’s 2015 planting intentions report. Based on a Reuters survey expecting: (in million acres)
    • All wheat average estimate 24.2 MA vs. 2014 area of 23.835 MA
    • Spring wheat average estimate 17.9 MA vs. 2014 area of 17.409 MA
    • Durum wheat average estimate 5.3 MA vs. 2014 area of 4.75 MA
    • Canola average estimate 20.2 MA vs. 2014 area of 20.325 MA
    • Oats average estimate 3.1 MA vs. 2014 area of 2.798 MA
    • Barley average estimate 6.7 MA vs. 2014 area of 5.880 MA
    • Flax average estimate 1.7 MA vs. 2014 area of 1.555 MA
    • Corn average estimate 3.1 MA vs. 2014 area of 3.078 MA
    • Beans average estimate 6.0 MA vs. 2014 area of 5.562 MA
    • May options expire Friday April 24th at 115 pm CST.
    • FOMC two day policy meeting April 28-29th. Fed announcement April 29th at 1 pm CST.
    • Position day for May futures is Wednesday April 29th. Traders should be out of long positions by the close that day or risk delivery .
    • First Notice Day for May futures is Thursday April 30th.
    • US EPA said on Friday April 10th they will propose biofuel use targets for 2015 by June 1st and will re-propose biofuel targets for 2014 that reflect volumes of renewable fuel actually used in 2014.
    • USDA to restart monthly Census crush reports in July 2015.

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE