News From The Grain Floor 04/14/15

Weather Highlights

  • The probability for very good rains in HRW areas improved since yesterday.  However the system should continue to slow early corn planting
  • In the western and central Midwest forecasts call for warm and dry weather for the next 3-5 days – favorable for corn planting
  • Rains in Argentina to slow soybeans and corn harvesting this week while improving the quality of soils dried out by hot, dry weather in the first weeks of April

Overnight closes:

  • SK up 7 at 955 ¾
  • CK up 1 at 371 ½
  • WK down 2 ¼ at 500
  • KC WK down 4 ½ at 524 ½
  • MWK down 4 at 556
  • SMK up 3.20 at 312.00
  • BOK up 12 at 3116

Overnight volume:

  • SK 11,620
  • CK 17,166
  • WK 9,764
  • KC WK 1,865
  • MWK 772
  • SMK 7,621
  • BOK 9,512

Overnight Option Volume

  • Corn 3,506
  • Beans 1,600
  • Meal 439
  • Bean oil 3
  • Wheat 1,267

Active Strikes in Overnight Trade

  • CZ 500 calls – traded 454
  • CK 400/440 puts spread – traded 260 at 39 7/8
  • CK 375/385/395 call fly – traded 165 at 1 1/2
  • SK 940 puts – traded 450
  • SK 960 calls – traded 255
  • WK 480 puts – traded 200
  • SMM 300 puts – traded 100
  • SMK 300 puts – traded 99

Significant OI changes from previous session

  • SK 990 C decreased 1,257 (total 5,586)
  • SK 1000 C decreased 1,310 (total 13,028)
  • SK 1000 P decreased 1,137 (total 15,834)
  • SM 950 C increased 1,014 (total 3,298)
  • SN 960 C increased 1,155 (total 2,974)
  • SN 1030 C increased 1,523 (total 1,863)
  • SN 890 P increased 1,174 (total 1,387)
  • SN 960 P increased 1,165 (total 14,369)
  • CN 390 C decreased 1,827 (total 15,950)
  • CN 410 C increased 1,062 (total 17,055)
  • CZ 300 P increased 1,772 (total 10,328)
  • WN 560 C increased 2,362 (total 9,519)
  • WN 420 C increased 2,157 (total 4,415)

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

  • CK 460 P 496
  • CK 410 P 162
  • CK 400 P 83
  • CK 390 P 25
  • CK 420 P 10
  • CK 430 P 7

Funds

COT

COT

COT

Current

31-Mar

7-Apr

to COT

8-Apr

9-Apr

10-Apr

13-Apr

Estimate

Corn

-28767

-39364

-10597

-7000

-2000

-3000

-9000

-60364

Wheat

-83136

-82,132

1004

-1000

-4000

5000

-11000

-93,132

Soybeans

-43338

-48424

-5086

1000

-9000

-2000

-3000

-61424

Soymeal

9711

-2838

-12549

1000

-4000

-2000

-1000

-8838

Soyoil

-8420

-840

7580

-1000

-1000

2000

-1000

-1840

News:

Dollar , stock market, gold, and silver lower. Crude oil higher

Nikkei up .02%

Hang Seng down 1.6%

Shanghai index up .3%

China grain market closings = beans up 37, corn down 20, meal unchanged, palm oil down 6, and bean oil up 14.

Malaysian palm oil up 18.

Government official said Indonesia’s finance minister will sign a regulation on Tuesday to impose a levy of $50 a ton on exports of crude palm oil .

Malaysian government cuts May crude palm oil export taxes to zero from 4.5% currently.

South Korea Daehan bought 45,400 tons of US milling wheat for August shipment

South Korea KFA bought 24,800 tons of US wheat for Aug-Sept shipment

South Korea KFA seeks 55,000 tons of South American soymeal for October shipment.

Japan seeks 109,005 tons of food wheat for June shipment. Breakdown:

  • 17,201 tons of western white US wheat
  • 12,390 tons of HRW US wheat
  • 21,580 tons of dark northern spring US wheat
  • 31,379 tons of Canadian western red spring wheat
  • 26,455 tons of Australian white wheat

Honduras is seeking soymeal

Egypt is shopping for corn

Chinese industry analysts – weekly Chinese crush breakdown:

  • For the week April 4-10th total crush volume at 1,254,750 tons up 10.19% from a week ago
  • For the week April 4-10th total crush capacity utilization at 40.67% up 3.31% from a week ago
  • Total ‘14/15 (October 1, 2014 – April 10, 2015) crush volume at 37,397,150 tons up 2.75% from a year ago
  • Total 2015 (Jan 1-April 10) crush volume at 18,633,150 tons up 4.47% from a year ago
  • As of April 10 total imported bean stocks at 4.3733 MMT v s. 4.2533 MMT a week ago and down 19.58% from a year ago
  • Estimated April bean imports at 5.379 MMT, unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated May bean imports at 6.60 MMT , unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated June bean imports at 7.00 MMT, unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated July bean imports at 7.80 MMT, unchanged from previous estimate

China auctioned 830,000 tons of wheat from reserves today.

Argentine government expected to release another 500,000 -1.0 million tons of wheat export licenses and up to 2.0 million tons of corn export licenses sometime this week.

Today is the last day of the Goldman Sachs / UBS roll. They have been rolling long May positions into July.

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday afternoon

Corn

  • Planting – 2% complete vs. 3% a year ago and vs. 5% five year average, expecting 4-6% complete.

Winter wheat

  • Condition – 42% good to excellent, down 2% from a week ago, expecting down 2-3% from a week ago and vs. 34% good to excellent a year ago

Spring wheat

  • Planting – 17% complete vs. 5% a year ago and vs. 11% five year average, expecting 8-10% complete.

Rice

  • Planting – 26% complete vs. 14% a week ago and vs. 30% five year average
  • Emerged – 8% vs. 3% a week ago and vs. 11% five year average.

Cotton

  • Planting – 4% vs. 2% a week ago and vs. 8% five year average

Bean planting by state

  • MS 22% planted vs. 6% a week ago vs. 6% a year ago and vs. 12% average
  • LA 13% planted vs. 9% a week ago vs. 12% a year ago and vs. 15% average
  • AR 8% planted vs. 2% a week ago vs. 4% a year ago and vs. 7% average
  • TX 3% planted vs. 14% a week ago and vs. 34% average

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon – no changes

  • Wheat = 0
  • Oats = 0
  • Corn =59
  • Ethanol =173
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 1
  • Bean oil = 3,335
  • Soy meal = 0
  • Rice = 1,307
  • KC wheat = 295
  • Minneapolis wheat =  357

Moving averages

  • SK 20 day 969 ¼
  • CK 20 day 382 ¼
  • WK 20 day 518 ½
  • WK 50 day 513
  • BOK 20 day 3085
  • BOK 50 day 3136
  • BOK 100 day 3197
  • SMK 20 day 320.80

Open interest as of yesterday’s close:

  • Total corn 1,399,261 open, up 22,879
  • Total beans 792,817 open, up 7,057
  • Total meal 344,545 open, up 1,611
  • Total bean oil 380,334 open, down 4,307
  • Total wheat 463,699 open, up 12,409
  • Total KC wheat 150,324 open, up 2,384

Upcoming reports/events.

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysian April 1-15th palm oil exports tomorrow
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • NOPA March crush report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CST . Based on a Reuters survey expecting :
    • Crush – average estimate is 155.261 MB , range of estimates are 150.50-159.50 MB . In February crush was 146.970 MB and in March 2014 crush was 153.840 MB
    • Bean oil stocks – average estimate is 1.383 billion lbs. , range of estimates are 1.275-1.463 billion lbs. In February bean oil stocks were 1.322 B lbs. and in March 2014 bean oil stocks were 2.023 B lbs.
    • Meal exports – no estimate is given for meal exports. In February meal exports were 791,532 tons and in March 2014 meal exports were 798,883 tons
    • China to auction 50,000 tons of rapeseed oil from reserves on Thursday
    • China to auction 331,500 tons of corn from reserves on Thursday
    • Stats Canada comes out on Thursday April 23rdwith Canada’s 2015 planting intentions report. Based on a Reuters survey expecting: (in million acres)
      • All wheat average estimate 24.2 MA vs. 2014 area of 23.835 MA
      • Spring wheat average estimate 17.9 MA vs. 2014 area of 17.409 MA
      • Durum wheat average estimate 5.3 MA vs. 2014 area of 4.75 MA
      • Canola average estimate 20.2 MA vs. 2014 area of 20.325 MA
      • Oats average estimate 3.1 MA vs. 2014 area of 2.798 MA
      • Barley average estimate 6.7 MA vs. 2014 area of 5.880 MA
      • Flax average estimate 1.7 MA vs. 2014 area of 1.555 MA
      • Corn average estimate 3.1 MA vs. 2014 area of 3.078 MA
      • Beans average estimate 6.0 MA vs. 2014 area of 5.562 MA
      • May options expire Friday April 24th at 115 pm CST.
      • US EPA said on Friday April 10th they will propose biofuel use targets for 2015 by June 1st and will re-propose biofuel targets for 2014 that reflect volumes of renewable fuel actually used in 2014.
      • USDA to restart monthly Census crush reports in July 2015.

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE