News From The Grain Floor 04/09/15

USDA April supply and demand and production report comes out today at 11 am CST. See below for estimates for report

Weather Highlights:

  • For the southern U.S. Plains hard red winter wheat belt showers forecast to cover much of Oklahoma, Texas and southern and eastern Kansas from Saturday into Monday, with another chance of rain for Texas into the eastern Plains for the 11 to 15 day period.
  • Rainfall in parts of Australia’s eastern grain belt over the past few days has improved sold moisture ahead of planting due to start this month. although much more is needed.
  • Russian and Ukraine have received much needed rains.

Overnight closes:

  • SK down 5 ½ at 966
  • CK down 1 ½ at 377 ¾
  • WK down 4 at 522 ¼
  • KC WK down 4 ½ at 556 ¾
  • MWK down 2 ¾ at 577 ¾
  • SMK down 1.20 at 318.70
  • BOK down 19 at 3076

Overnight volume:

  • SK 20,518
  • CK 11,957
  • WK 6,187
  • KC WK 1,643
  • MWK 188
  • SMK 5,961
  • BOK 16,342

Overnight Option Volume

  • Corn 716
  • Beans 4,109
  • Meal 82
  • Soyoil 97
  • Wheat 593

Active Strikes in Overnight Trade

  • SK 960 puts – traded 929
  • WK 520 puts – traded 235

Significant OI Changes from previous session

  • SK 990 C increased 2,064 (total 7,356)
  • SK 1000 C decreased 2,254 (total 14,493)
  • SK 920 P decreased 1,393 (total 8,789)
  • SM 970 P increased 1,828 (total 4,451)
  • SN 920 P increased 1,036 (total 12,462)
  • CK 390 C decreased 2,543 (total 16,478)
  • CU 350 P increased 1,001 (total 5,912)

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

  • N/A

Funds

COT

COT

COT

Current

24-Mar

31-Mar

to COT

1-Apr

2-Apr

6-Apr

7-Apr

8-Apr

Estimate

Corn

-35688

-28767

6921

8000

8000

0

-3000

-7000

-22767

Wheat

-76941

-83,136

-6195

7000

5000

-4000

-1000

-1000

-77,136

Soybeans

-44024

-43338

686

9000

-3000

-3000

-4000

1000

-43338

Soymeal

2860

9711

6851

4000

-2000

0

-2000

1000

10711

Soyoil

-2439

-8420

-5981

3000

-2000

0

-2000

-1000

-10420

News:

Dollar and crude oil higher. Gold, silver, and stock market lower

Nikkei up .75%

Hang Seng up 2.7%

Shanghai index up .9%

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at +14K to 281K expecting 280K

China grain market closings = beans down 17, corn unchanged, meal down 29, palm oil down 40, and bean oil down 40.

Malaysian palm down 46

Philippines bought 115,000 tons of Argentina soymeal for July –Sept shipment, reportedly traded at a $30 discount to the US

Japan bought 122,429 tons of food wheat for May –June shipment. Breakdown:

  • 16,135 tons of US western white wheat
  • 18,330 tons of US HRW wheat
  • 59,574 tons of Canadian western red spring wheat
  • 28,390 tons of Australian white wheat

South Korea NOFI seeks 207,000 tons of optional origin corn for November shipment

China auctioned 317,500 tons of corn from reserves today.

COFCO said China to stockpile a record 80.0 MMT of corn by the end of April vs. 69 MMT bought for stockpiling in 2014

Russia’s spring grain plantings are 3.4% complete on 1.1 MH vs. 1.3 MH a year ago.

Today is the second day of the Goldman Sachs / UBS roll. They are rolling long May positions into July. Roll ends on Tuesday.

Weekly US export sales report came out this morning

  • Wheat = ‘14/15 319,900 ‘15/16 36,800 (expecting 50-150,000 tons)
  • Corn =  ‘14/15 639,600 ‘15/16 62,900 (expecting 350 -450,000 tons)
  • Beans = ‘14/15 -176,700 ‘15/16 502,400 (expecting -50,000 to +150,000 tons)
  • Meal =  ‘14/15 46,000 ‘15/16 31,000 (expecting 100 -200,000 tons)
  • Bean oil = ‘14/15 11,900  (expecting 5 -20,000 tons)

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 319,900 metric tons for delivery in 2014/2015 were up 97 percent from the previous week and 16 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for China (57,500 MT), Nigeria (46,600 MT), Malaysia (38,500 MT, including 35,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Guatemala (37,100 MT), El Salvador (32,200 MT), and Cyprus (22,000 MT). Decreases were reported for the Dominican Republic (2,800 MT) and Colombia (1,100 MT). Net sales of 36,800 MT for 2015/2016 were for Honduras (26,500 MT), China (4,500 MT), Guatemala (2,400 MT), unknown destinations (2,400 MT), and Peru (1,000 MT). Exports of 375,700 MT were up 11 percent from the previous week, but down 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (79,700 MT), Thailand (63,800 MT), Egypt (57,800 MT), Nigeria (46,500 MT), Malaysia (38,600 MT), and Italy (29,600 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 639,600 MT for delivery in 2014/2015 were up 57 percent from the previous week and 45 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Taiwan (209,000 MT), Mexico (200,300 MT), Japan (197,100 MT, including 155,700 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 19,800 MT), South Korea (131,400 MT, including 64,700 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,200 MT), Colombia (54,400 MT, including 51,400 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 8,200 MT), and Cuba (25,000 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (184,500 MT) and Barbados (58,800 MT). Net sales of 62,900 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for unknown destinations (36,200 MT), Guatemala (17,500 MT), and Japan (9,100 MT). Exports of 1,171,100 MT were up 71 percent from the previous week and 30 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (289,600 MT), Japan (265,400 MT), South Korea (243,300 MT), Taiwan (137,000 MT), Iran (72,600 MT), Colombia (71,600 MT), and Costa Rica (44,100 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales reductions of 176,700 MT for 2014/2015 resulted as increases for the Netherlands (96,000 MT, including 95,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (59,000 MT), Japan (49,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,500 MT), Indonesia (33,700 MT, including 25,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,300 MT), and Malaysia (15,000 MT), were more than offset by decreases for unknown destinations (242,300 MT), China (229,400 MT, including 355,000 MT switched to 2015/2016), and Israel (1,900 MT). Net sales of 502,400 MT for 2015/2016 were for China (415,000 MT), unknown destinations (62,900 MT), Mexico (20,000 MT), Guatemala (3,100 MT), and Japan (1,400 MT). Exports of 624,500 MT were down 6 percent from the previous week and 5 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (248,200 MT), the Netherlands (96,000 MT), Indonesia (70,800 MT), Mexico (64,400 MT), Japan (54,300 MT), and Colombia (20,700 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 46,000 MT for 2014/2015 were down 79 percent from the previous week and 75 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for the Philippines (63,600 MT, including 62,300 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,300 MT), Cuba (44,000 MT), Mexico (19,800 MT), the Dominican Republic (15,100 MT), Colombia (8,700 MT), and Canada (6,900 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (84,600 MT), Poland (30,000 MT), and Barbados (24,200 MT). Net sales of 31,000 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for unknown destinations (14,700 MT), the Dominican Republic (10,200 MT), and Guatemala (6,200 MT). Exports of 293,100 MT were up 1 percent from the previous week and 7 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were the Philippines (68,700 MT), Thailand (64,600 MT), Italy (55,000 MT), Mexico (45,700 MT), Colombia (17,300 MT), Canada (14,200 MT), and the Dominican Republic (12,200 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 11,900 MT for 2014/2015 were down 42 percent from the previous week and 15 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (8,200 MT), Jamaica (3,500 MT), and Canada (100 MT). Exports of 33,900 MT were up 87 percent from the previous week and 81 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Peru (20,500 MT), South Korea (8,500 MT), Mexico (4,600 MT), and Canada (100 MT).

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon

  • Wheat = 0
  • Oats = 0
  • Corn =59
  • Ethanol =173
    • 7 ethanol receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon
    • DDGs = 0
    • Beans = 1
    • Bean oil = 3,335
    • Soy meal = 0
    • Rice = 1,307
    • KC wheat = 295
    • Minneapolis wheat =  357

Moving averages:

  • SK 20 day 974
  • SK 50 day 986
  • CK 20 day 383 ¾
  • CK 50 day 387 ½
  • CK 100 day 395 ½
  • CK 200 day 391
  • WK 20 day 518 ½
  • WK 50 day 513
  • KC WK 20 day 559 ¼
  • KC WK 50 day 550 ½
  • MWK 20 day 580
  • MWK 50 day 573 ½
  • BOK 20 day 3077
  • BOK 50 day 3130
  • SMK 20 323.80

Open interest as of yesterday’s close:

  • Total corn 1,376,290 open, up 17,941
  • Total beans 763,630 open, up 9,675
  • Total meal 340,377 open, up 485
  • Total bean oil 378,290 open, up 3,438
  • Total wheat 448,837 open, up 1,393
  • Total KC wheat 147,559 open, up 238

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST, expecting +11 BCF
  • CONAB comes out tomorrow with their 2015 Brazilian crop estimate updates . Previous estimates were
    • Bean crop estimated at 93.3 MMT
    • Corn crop estimated at 78.2 MMT
    • Bean exports estimated at 46.8 MMT
    • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out tomorrow with their March Malaysian palm oil data report. Based on a Reuters survey expecting:
      • March palm oil output average estimate is 1.32 MMT vs. Feb palm oil output of 1.122 MMT
      • March palm oil stocks average estimate is 1.75 MMT vs. Feb palm oil stocks of 1.743 MMT
      • March palm oil exports average estimate is 1.15 MMT vs. Feb palm oil exports of 971,640 tons
      • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will come out tomorrow with Malaysian April 1-10th palm oil export estimates
      • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
      • Stats Canada comes out with Canadian production estimates on Thursday April 23rd
      • USDA to restart monthly Census crush reports in July 2015.

Estimates for today’s USDA report.

Estimates for ‘14/15 US ending stocks:

  • Wheat (19 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .692 BB, range of estimates are .671 -.721 BB. USDA March estimate was .691 BB
  • Corn (20 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 1.854 BB, range of estimates are 1.750 -1.999 BB. USDA March estimate was 1.777 BB
  • Beans (20 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .370 BB, range of estimates are .347- .399 BB. USDA March estimate was .385 BB.

Estimates for ‘14/15 world ending stocks:

  • Wheat (15 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 197.51 MMT, range of estimates are 195.40 -199.00 MMT. USDA March estimate was 197.71 MMT.
  • Corn (14 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 186.91 MMT, range of estimates are 184.70 -191.00 MMT. USDA March estimate was 185.28 MMT.
  • Beans (15 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 89.53 MMT, range of estimates are 88.00 -91.15 MMT. USDA March estimate was 89.53 MMT.

Estimates for ‘14/15 South American crop production:

  • Argentina corn crop (17 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 23.90 MMT, range of estimates are 22.00 -29.30 MMT. USDA March estimate was 23.50 MMT
  • Argentina bean crop (18 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 57.23 MMT, range of estimates are 55.5 -60.2 MMT. USDA March estimate was 56.0 MMT
  • Brazilian corn crop (17 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 74.82 MMT, range of estimates are 73.0 -77.4 MMT. USDA March estimate was 75.0 MMT
  • Brazilian bean crop (18 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 94.18 MMT, range of estimates are 93.0- 95.0 MMT. USDA March estimate was 94.5 MMT.

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE