News From The Grain Floor 04/08/15

Goldman Sachs / UBS roll begins today and ends Tuesday. They will be rolling long May positions into July

Overnight closes:

  • SK up 1 at 972
  • CK up a ¼ at 383 ¼
  • WK up a ¼ at 526 ¼
  • KC WK down 1 at 564 ½
  • MWK up 2 ½ at 586
  • SMK up .70 at 320.40
  • BOK down 11 at 3092

Overnight volume:

  • SK 11,429
  • CK 29,004
  • WK 6,073
  • KC WK 694
  • MWK 147
  • SMK 5,520
  • BOK 8,240

Overnight Option Volume

  • Corn 533
  • Beans 847
  • Meal 50
  • Soyoil 6
  • Wheat 948

Active Strikes in Overnight Trade

  • WK 500 puts – traded 251
  • WK 550 calls – traded 191

Significant OI Changes from previous session

  • CN 420 C increased 6,476 (total 17,267)
  • CN 450 C increased 6,266 (total 17,061)
  • CU 430 C increased 1,138 (total 5,127)
  • CU 380 P increased 1,401 (total 7,649)
  • SK 930 P increased 1,022 (total 12,065)
  • SM 960 P increased 1,349 (total 2,362)
  • SMM 310 P increased 2,642 (total 3,235)
  • SMM 320 P increased 1,050 (total 1,417)
  • WM 520 P increased 1,215 (total 1,494)

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

  • CK 360 P 338
  • CK 390 P 120
  • CK 400 P 41
  • CK 410 P 39

COT

COT

COT

Current

24-Mar

31-Mar

to COT

1-Apr

2-Apr

6-Apr

7-Apr

Estimate

Corn

-35688

-28767

6921

8000

8000

0

-3000

-15767

Wheat

-76941

-83,136

-6195

7000

5000

-4000

-1000

-76,136

Soybeans

-44024

-43338

686

9000

-3000

-3000

-4000

-44338

Soymeal

2860

9711

6851

4000

-2000

0

-2000

9711

Soyoil

-2439

-8420

-5981

3000

-2000

0

-2000

-9420

News:

Dollar, gold, silver, and crude oil lower. Stock market higher

Nikkei up .76%

Hang Seng up 3.8%

Shanghai index up .8%

Weekly API energy inventory report came out yesterday afternoon

  • Crude a build of 12.2 MB , expecting a build of 3.4 MB
  • Gas a build of 2.7 MB, expecting a draw of 1.0 MB
  • Distillates a draw of 331,000 barrels, expecting a build of 800,000 barrels

China grain market closings = beans down 32, corn down 4, meal down 11, palm oil down 24, and bean oil down 26

Malaysian palm down 39.

China auctioned 50,000 tons of rapeseed oil from reserves today.

Philippines seeking 160,000 tons of soymeal for July- Oct shipment

Jordan bought 100,000 tons of optional origin hard wheat

Maldives seeks 6,000 tons of any origin wheat flour

China’s bean import needs are said to be well covered for May and as much as 60-70% covered for June.

CNGOIC said China will import 4 MMT of DDGs, 7.0 MMT of barley (up 40% from a year ago), and 8.1 MMT of sorghum (nearly double than a year ago) in ‘14/15

FC Stone estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 93.6 MMT

FC Stone estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 total corn crop at 75.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 74.9 MMT

FranceAgriMer estimated French ‘14/15 soft wheat exports outside the EU at 10.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 10.4 MMT

FranceAgriMer estimated French ‘14/15 soft wheat ending stocks at 3.6 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

FranceAgriMer estimated French ‘14/15 corn ending stocks at 3.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 4.0 MMT

Abiove said yesterday that Brazil’s soy exports are likely to be slowed because of a six day fire at a fuel storage facility has restricted access to Brazil’s largest port, Santos. Authorities plan to keep the entrance closed to most trucks until Friday.

There were 5 ethanol deliveries with the date at 4/01/15

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon

  • Wheat = 0
  • Oats = 0
  • Corn =59
  • Ethanol =180
    • 5 new ethanol receipts were registered yesterday afternoon out of Aventine Renewable Energy LLC , Pekin IL
    • DDGs = 0
    • Beans = 1
    • Bean oil = 3,335
    • Soy meal = 0
    • Rice = 1,307
    • KC wheat = 295
    • Minneapolis wheat =  357

Moving averages:

  • SK 20 day 975 ¼
  • SK 50 day 986 ¼
  • CK 20 day 384 ½
  • CK 50 day 387 ¾
  • CK 100 day 395 ½
  • CK 200 day 391 ¼
  • KC WK 20 day 558
  • MWK 20 day 579 ½
  • BOK 20 day 3078
  • BOK 50 day 3132
  • BOK 100 day 3204
  • SMK 20 324.60
  • SMK 50 day 328.30
  • SMK 100 day 335.40

Open interest as of yesterday’s close:

  • Total corn 1,359,858 open, up 779
  • Total beans 754,169 open, up 7,420
  • Total meal 340,052 open, down 237
  • Total bean oil 375,936 open, down 2,834
  • Total wheat 448,110 open, up 6,327
  • Total KC wheat 147,551 open, down 5,023

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 930 am CST . Expecting
  1. Crude a build of 3.28 MB
  2. Gas a draw of 1.52 MB
  3. Distillates a build of 330,000 barrels
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out today at 930 am CST
  • China to auction 317,500 tons of corn from reserves tomorrow
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST.
  • USDA April crop production and supply and demand report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CST. See below for report estimates
  • CONAB comes out Friday with their 2015 Brazilian crop estimate updates . Previous estimates were
    • Bean crop estimated at 93.3 MMT
    • Corn crop estimated at 78.2 MMT
    • Bean exports estimated at 46.8 MMT
    • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out on Friday with their March Malaysian palm oil data report. Based on a Reuters survey expecting:
      • March palm oil output average estimate is 1.32 MMT vs. Feb palm oil output of 1.122 MMT
      • March palm oil stocks average estimate is 1.75 MMT vs. Feb palm oil stocks of 1.743 MMT
      • March palm oil exports average estimate is 1.15 MMT vs. Feb palm oil exports of 971,640 tons
      • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will come out on Friday with Malaysian April 1-10th palm oil export estimates
      • Stats Canada comes out with Canadian production estimates on Thursday April 23rd
      • USDA to restart monthly Census crush reports in July 2015.

Estimates for tomorrow’s USDA report.

Estimates for ‘14/15 US ending stocks:

  • Wheat (19 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .692 BB, range of estimates are .671 -.721 BB. USDA March estimate was .691 BB
  • Corn (20 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 1.854 BB, range of estimates are 1.750 -1.999 BB. USDA March estimate was 1.777 BB
  • Beans (20 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .370 BB, range of estimates are .347- .399 BB. USDA March estimate was .385 BB.

Estimates for ‘14/15 world ending stocks:

  • Wheat (15 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 197.51 MMT, range of estimates are 195.40 -199.00 MMT. USDA March estimate was 197.71 MMT.
  • Corn (14 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 186.91 MMT, range of estimates are 184.70 -191.00 MMT. USDA March estimate was 185.28 MMT.
  • Beans (15 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 89.53 MMT, range of estimates are 88.00 -91.15 MMT. USDA March estimate was 89.53 MMT.

Estimates for ‘14/15 South American crop production:

  • Argentina corn crop (17 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 23.90 MMT, range of estimates are 22.00 -29.30 MMT. USDA March estimate was 23.50 MMT
  • Argentina bean crop (18 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 57.23 MMT, range of estimates are 55.5 -60.2 MMT. USDA March estimate was 56.0 MMT
  • Brazilian corn crop (17 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 74.82 MMT, range of estimates are 73.0 -77.4 MMT. USDA March estimate was 75.0 MMT
  • Brazilian bean crop (18 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 94.18 MMT, range of estimates are 93.0- 95.0 MMT. USDA March estimate was 94.5 MMT.

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE