News From The Grain Floor 04/07/15

USDA announced 165,000 tons of US beans sold to China for ‘15/16 shipment

Weather Highlights:

US Plains: Forecasts calling for some much needed rains later in the week

Black Sea Region: Favorable rains in growing areas

Argentina and Southern Brazil: Favorable harvesting weather

Overnight closes:

  • SK down 3 ¼ at 375 ¼
  • CK down a ½ at 384 ½
  • WK down 5 ¼ at 522 ½
  • KC WK down 6 ½ at 565 ½
  • MWK down 3 ½ at 586 ¼
  • SMK down .20 at 322.80
  • BOK down 19 at 3107

Overnight volume:

  • SK 12,502
  • CK 8,365
  • WK 9,124
  • KC WK 862
  • MWK 227
  • SMK 6,161
  • BOK 11,946

Overnight Option Volume

  • Corn 1,278
  • Beans 1,223
  • Meal 1
  • Soyoil 1
  • Wheat 1,126

Active Strikes in Overnight Trade

  • CK 365 puts – traded 626
  • SX 940 puts – traded 302
  • WK 530 puts – traded 285
  • WK 570 calls – traded 221

Significant OI Changes from previous session

  • SK 930 P increased 2,418 (total 11,043)
  • SK 970 P decreased 1,134 (total 8,769)
  • WK 510 P increased 1,092 (total 2,765)

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

  • N/A

News:

Dollar and stock market higher. Gold, silver, and crude oil lower .

Nikkei up 1.25%

Hang Seng up 1.19%

Shanghai index up 2.5%

China grain market closings = beans down 22, corn down 2, meal down 12, palm oil up 76, and bean oil up 58

Malaysian palm down 25.

China auctioned wheat from reserves today.

Japan seeks 122,429 tons of food wheat for May –June shipment. Breakdown:

  • 16,135 tons of US western white wheat
  • 18,330 tons of US HRW wheat
  • 59,574 tons of Canadian western red spring wheat
  • 28,390 tons of Australian white wheat

Jordan postpones tender to buy 100,000 tons of feed barley for October shipment.

Safras e Mercado said Brazilian bean harvest is 75% complete vs. 80% a year ago and vs. 75% average

Safras e Mercado said the Brazilian bean crop is 50% sold vs. 62% a year ago and vs. 64% average

Safras e Mercado said Brazilian summer corn crop is 59% harvested vs. 70% a year ago

USDA attaché in Argentina estimated Argentina’s ‘15/16 soybean area at 20.3 MH , slightly lower than ‘14/15 area.

USDA attaché in Argentina estimated Argentina’s ‘15/16 wheat crop at 12.0 MMT

USDA reported two new avian flu outbreaks in commercial turkey flocks in Minnesota, seventh case this month .

Chinese industry analysts – Weekly Chinese crush breakdown:

  • For the week March 28 – April 3 total crush volume at 1,138,700 tons down 16.54% from a week ago
  • For the week March 28 – April 3 total crush capacity utilization at 37.36% down 7.37% from a week ago
  • Total ‘14/15 (October 1, 2014 – April 3, 2015) crush volume at 36,142,400 tons up 2.99% from a year ago
  • Total 2015 (Jan 1 – April 3) crush volume at 17,378,400 tons up 5.13% from a year ago
  • As of April 3 total imported bean stocks at 4.2553 MMT vs. 4.1883 MMT a week ago and down 20.12% from a year ago
  • Estimated April bean imports at 5.379 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.3 MMT
  • Estimated May bean imports at 6.60 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.50 MMT
  • Estimated June bean imports at 7.00 MMT, unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated July bean imports at 7.80 MMT , first estimate made.

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday afternoon

  • US winter wheat condition 44% good to excellent, expecting 42% good to excellent, vs. 35% a year ago and vs. five year average of 47% .
    • KS winter wheat condition is 33% good to excellent , down 6% from a week ago
    • OK winter wheat condition is 43% good to excellent, down 1% from a week ago
    • TX winter wheat condition is 54% good to excellent, down 1% from a week ago
    • US cotton crop is 2% planted as expected vs. 6% a year ago and vs. 6% five year average
    • US rice crop is 14% planted, expecting 5% planted, vs. 14% a year ago and vs. 18% five year average
    • US rice emerged 3% vs. 4% five year average.

USDA did not report nation-wide corn planting progress.

US corn planting by state

  • LA 67% planted vs. 16% a week ago vs. 89% a year ago and vs. 99% average
  • MS 34% planted vs. 4% a week ago vs. 39% a year ago and vs. 57% average
  • TX 37% planted vs. 20% a week ago vs. 50% a year ago and vs. 50% average
  • AR 27% planted vs. 2% a week ago vs. 24% a year ago and vs. 43% average
  • GA 36% planted vs. 55% a year ago and vs. 59% average
  • AL 16% planted vs. 26% a year ago and vs. 32% average
  • SC 2% planted vs. 9% a year ago and vs. 40% average
  • TN 2% planted vs. 2% a year ago and vs. 10% average
  • MO 1% planted vs. 2% a year ago and vs. 6% average

Weekly US export inspections report from yesterday

  • Wheat = 370,086 tons , expecting 325-450,000 tons
  • Corn = 1,027,876 tons, expecting 700 -850,000 tons
  • Beans = 564,823 tons, expecting 500 -650,000 tons

There were 17 ethanol deliveries with the date at 4/01/15

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon – no changes

  • Wheat = 0
  • Oats = 0
  • Corn =59
  • Ethanol =175
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 1
  • Bean oil = 3,335
  • Soy meal = 0
  • Rice = 1,307
  • KC wheat = 295
  • Minneapolis wheat =  357

Moving averages:

  • SK 20 day 976
  • SK 50 day 986 ½
  • CK 20 day 385
  • CK 50 day 388
  • CK 100 day 395 ½
  • CK 200 day 391 ¾
  • KC WK 100 day 587
  • MWK 100 day 595 ½
  • BOK 20 day 3079
  • BOK 50 day 3133
  • BOK 100 day 3206
  • SMK 20 325.30
  • SMK 50 day 328.60
  • SMK 100 day 335.80

Open interest as of yesterday’s close:

  • Total corn 1,359,101 open, down 1,051
  • Total beans 747,230 open, down 9,586
  • Total meal 340,298 open, down 1,271
  • Total bean oil 378,770 open, down 1,549
  • Total wheat 442,409 open, up 2,081
  • Total KC wheat 152,569 open, down 698

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST.
  • China to auction rapeseed oil from reserves tomorrow
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Goldman Sachs / UBS roll begins tomorrow and ends Tuesday. They will be rolling long May positions into July.
  • China to auction corn from reserves on Thursday
  • USDA April crop production and supply and demand report comes out on Thursday at 11 am CST. Will email report estimates this morning.
  • CONAB comes out Friday with their 2015 Brazilian crop estimate updates . Previous estimates were
    • Bean crop estimated at 93.3 MMT
    • Corn crop estimated at 78.2 MMT
    • Bean exports estimated at 46.8 MMT
    • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out on Friday with their March Malaysian palm oil data report. Based on a Reuters survey expecting:
      • March palm oil output average estimate is 1.32 MMT vs. Feb palm oil output of 1.122 MMT
      • March palm oil stocks average estimate is 1.75 MMT vs. Feb palm oil stocks of 1.743 MMT
      • March palm oil exports average estimate is 1.15 MMT vs. Feb palm oil exports of 971,640 tons
      • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will come out on Friday with Malaysian April 1-10th palm oil export estimates
      • Stats Canada comes out with Canadian production estimates on Thursday April 23rd
      • USDA to restart monthly Census crush reports in July 2015.Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE