News From The Grain Floor 04-16-15

USDA announced 108,000 tons of sorghum to unknown for ‘15/16 delivery 

Weather Highlights

  • A good chance for rain in Southern Plains wheat areas, and more wet conditions over the southeastern Midwest are key features today.
  • Across the Delta, frequent rain episodes during the next week will disrupt and delay corn and soybean planting

Overnight closes:

  • SN unchanged at 967 ¾
  • CN up a ¼ at 383 ¼
  • WN up 2 ¾ at 491 ¾
  • KC WN up 1 ¾ at 519 ¾
  • MWN up 1 at 555
  • SMN up .50 at 311.70
  • BON down 6 at 3195

Overnight volume:

  • SN 9,523
  • CN 5,918
  • WN 8,835
  • KC WN 2,286
  • MWN 467
  • SMN 3,427
  • BON 6,398

Overnight Option Volume

  • Corn 851
  • Beans 1,292
  • Meal 177
  • Bean oil 3
  • Wheat 3,204

Active Strikes in Overnight Trade

  • SK 1060 calls – traded 356
  • SK 1040 calls – traded 200
  • WN 600 calls – traded 1032
  • WN 485/495 call spread – traded 500

Significant OI changes from previous session

  • SK 900 P decreased 1,756 (total 16,145)
  • SK 930 P decreased 3,345 (total 8,168)
  • SK 940 P decreased 2,501 (total 14,820)
  • SK 950 P decreased 1,975 (total 13,894)
  • SN 860 P decreased 5,237 (total 6,173)
  • SN 890 P increased 3,100 (total 8,729)
  • SN 920 P increased 2,924 (total 16,103)
  • CK 370 P decreased 2,713 (total 17,761)
  • CU 390 C increased 1,213 (total 5,840)
  • CZ 500 C increased 1,189 (total 39,772)
  • CU 390 P increased 1,200 (total 10,518)
  • CZ 450 C increased 1,334 (total 25,409)
  • WN 530 C increased 1,363 (total 9,989)
  • WN 470 P increased 1,063 (total 4,937)
  • SMN 300 P decreased 1,442 (total 13,272)

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

  • None

Funds

COT

COT

COT

Current

31-Mar

7-Apr

to COT

8-Apr

9-Apr

10-Apr

13-Apr

14-Apr

15-Apr

Estimate

Corn

-28767

-39364

-10597

-7000

-2000

-3000

-9000

6000

4000

-50364

Wheat

-83136

-82,132

1004

-1000

-4000

5000

-11000

-6000

-5000

-104,132

Soybeans

-43338

-48424

-5086

1000

-9000

-2000

-3000

7000

5000

-49424

Soymeal

9711

-2838

-12549

1000

-4000

-2000

-1000

3000

-2000

-7838

Soyoil

-8420

-840

7580

-1000

-1000

2000

-1000

2000

4000

4160

News:

Dollar , crude oil , and stock market lower. Gold and silver higher

Nikkei up .08%

Hang Seng up .04%

Shanghai index up 2.7%

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at +12K at 294K expecting 280K

China grain market closings = beans up 10, corn down 5, meal down 7, palm oil up 30, and bean oil up 64

Malaysian palm oil down 4

China auctioned 50,000 tons of rapeseed oil from reserves today.

China auctioned 331,500 tons of corn from reserves today.

Ethiopia seeks 400,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat for July –August shipment

Japan bought 109,005 tons of food wheat for June shipment.  Breakdown:

  • 17,201 tons of western white US wheat
  • 12,390 tons of HRW US wheat
  • 21,580 tons of dark northern spring US wheat
  • 31,379 tons of Canadian western red spring wheat
  • 26,455 tons of Australian white wheat

Strategie Grains estimated ‘14/15 EU soft wheat exports at 32.0 MMT (record) vs. previous estimate of 29.9 MMT

Strategie Grains estimated ‘15/16 EU soft wheat exports at 31.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 29.0 MMT

Strategie Grains estimated ‘14/15 EU barley exports at 8.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 8.4 MMT

Strategie Grains estimated ‘15/16 EU barley exports at 9.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 8.3 MMT

Weekly export sales report came out this morning:

  • Wheat ‘14/15 47,900 ‘15/16 112,500 tons (expecting 150-550,000 tons)
  • Corn ‘14/15 588,200 ‘15/16 28,500 tons (expecting 400-700,000 tons)
  • Beans ‘14/15 312,600 tons ‘15/16 226,200 tons (expecting 200 -600,000 tons)
  • Meal ‘14/15 130,400 tons ‘15/16 13,100 tons (expecting 75-250,000 tons)
  • Bean oil ‘14/15 4,500 tons (expecting 0-20,000 tons)

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 47,900 metric tons for delivery in 2014/2015–a marketing-year low–were down 85 percent from the previous week and 80 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Egypt (57,800 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,200 MT), Ecuador (20,700 MT, including 20,300 MT switched from unknown destinations), Peru (11,200 MT), Nigeria (6,500 MT, including 6,200 MT switched from unknown destinations), and the Dominican Republic (5,000 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (68,000 MT) and Jamaica (2,200 MT). Net sales of 112,500 MT for 2015/2016 were for the Philippines (46,000 MT), Mexico (42,500 MT), unknown destinations (23,800 MT), and Hong Kong (300 MT). Exports of 383,800 MT were up 2 percent from the previous week, but down 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Egypt (117,800 MT), the Dominican Republic (46,400 MT), Taiwan (43,000 MT), Peru (33,000 MT), Japan (25,300 MT), and South Korea (23,200 MT).
  • Corn – : Net sales of 588,200 MT for delivery in 2014/2015 were down 8 percent from the previous week, but up 19 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Japan (194,300 MT, including 43,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 66,600 MT), South Korea (166,000 MT, including 88,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,300 MT), China (65,200 MT), Mexico (51,500 MT), and Guatemala (36,700 MT, including 42,900 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 5,000 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (60,400 MT) and the Dominican Republic (3,300 MT). Net sales of 28,500 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for unknown destinations (21,000 MT), Guatemala (4,600 MT), and El Salvador (3,000 MT). Exports of 870,900 MT were down 26 percent from the previous week and 4 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (276,100 MT), South Korea (255,900 MT), Mexico (178,900 MT), Colombia (63,300 MT), Guatemala (46,800 MT), El Salvador (20,800 MT), and Morocco (17,500 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 312,600 MT for 2014/2015 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Germany (96,000 MT, previously reported for the Netherlands), the Netherlands (85,000 MT, including 80,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), unknown destinations (27,000 MT), South Korea (26,300 MT, including 25,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (21,500 MT), and Morocco (16,300 MT, including 17,500 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,200 MT). Net sales of 226,200 MT for 2015/2016 were for China (165,000 MT), unknown destinations (60,000 MT), and Japan (1,200 MT). Exports of 563,100 MT were up 7 percent from the previous week, but down 13 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (196,400 MT), Germany (96,000 MT, previously report for the Netherlands) the Netherlands (85,000 MT), Mexico (41,100 MT), Japan (27,000 MT), South Korea (26,600 MT), and Egypt (22,400 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 130,400 MT for 2014/2015 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 24 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (60,000 MT), Colombia (39,100 MT, including 18,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 11,500 MT), Guatemala (17,800 MT, including 15,900 MT, switched from unknown destinations and 500 MT switched from Nicaragua), the Dominican Republic (10,100 MT), Jamaica (9,000 MT), and Canada (8,500 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (40,000 MT), Vietnam (4,700 MT), and Morocco (900 MT). Net sales of 13,100 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for Peru (7,600 MT), the Dominican Republic (4,000 MT), unknown destinations (1,100 MT), and Canada (400 MT). Exports of 250,200 MT were down 15 percent from the previous week and 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were the Philippines (47,100 MT), Mexico (42,100 MT), Vietnam (40,800 MT), Egypt (25,300 MT), Morocco (23,100 MT), Colombia (22,900 MT), and Guatemala (18,700 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 4,500 MT for 2014/2015 were down 62 percent from the previous week and 71 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (3,400 MT), Canada (700 MT), and the Dominican Republic (300 MT). Exports of 8,400 MT were down 75 percent from the previous week and 62 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (5,800 MT), El Salvador (1,200 MT), Costa Rica (1,000 MT), and Canada (300 MT).

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon – no changes

  • Wheat = 0
  • Oats = 0
  • Corn =59
  • Ethanol =173
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 1
  • Bean oil = 3,335
  • Soy meal = 0
  • Rice = 1,307
  • KC wheat = 295
  • Minneapolis wheat =  357

Open interest as of yesterday’s close:

  • Total corn 1,397,084 open, down 10,792
  • Total beans 780,344 open, down 14,054
  • Total meal 347,701 open, up 1,712
  • Total bean oil 388,757 open, up 10,943
  • Total wheat 475,389 open, up 5,469
  • Total KC wheat 155,744 open, up 2,611

Upcoming reports/events.

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST, expecting +49 BCF
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST.
  • July corn, wheat, KC wheat, Minneapolis wheat, beans, meal, and bean oil will be top step (spot month) on Friday
  • Stats Canada comes out on Thursday April 23rdwith Canada’s 2015 planting intentions report. Based on a Reuters survey expecting: (in million acres)
    • All wheat average estimate 24.2 MA vs. 2014 area of 23.835 MA
    • Spring wheat average estimate 17.9 MA vs. 2014 area of 17.409 MA
    • Durum wheat average estimate 5.3 MA vs. 2014 area of 4.75 MA
    • Canola average estimate 20.2 MA vs. 2014 area of 20.325 MA
    • Oats average estimate 3.1 MA vs. 2014 area of 2.798 MA
    • Barley average estimate 6.7 MA vs. 2014 area of 5.880 MA
    • Flax average estimate 1.7 MA vs. 2014 area of 1.555 MA
    • Corn average estimate 3.1 MA vs. 2014 area of 3.078 MA
    • Beans average estimate 6.0 MA vs. 2014 area of 5.562 MA
    • May options expire Friday April 24th at 115 pm CST.
    • US EPA said on Friday April 10th they will propose biofuel use targets for 2015 by June 1st and will re-propose biofuel targets for 2014 that reflect volumes of renewable fuel actually used in 2014.
    • USDA to restart monthly Census crush reports in July 2015.

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE