News From The Grain Floor 04-10-15

USDA announced 200,000 tons of US beans sold to unknown , 140,000 for ‘14/15 delivery and 60,000 for ‘15/16 delivery

Weather Highlights

Weather patterns look wet for the Corn Belt / South for the next 10 days with excessive amounts possible in the Delta / mid-South.

Light precipitation, snow and rain, through southern Nebraska during the past 24 hours. Snow fall in central Nebraska was mostly 2.00 inches or less

but isolated areas reported heavier. Scattered light showers with locally heavier through northeast Texas. Little elsewhere in the region. Temperatures

averaged below normal through north and west-central areas, near to above normal through east-central and south locations.

Overnight closes:

  • SK up a ½ at 954
  • CK up a ¼ at 378 ¼
  • WK unchanged at 518 ¾
  • KC WK down a ½ at 551
  • MWK unchanged at 574
  • SMK up .40 at 312.50
  • BOK down 5 at 3079

Overnight volume:

  • SK 18,930
  • CK 7,158
  • WK 8,491
  • KC WK 1,233
  • MWK 281
  • SMK 7,800
  • BOK 12,565

Overnight Option Volume

  • Corn 636
  • Beans 2,764
  • Meal 287
  • Bean oil 50
  • Wheat 732

Active Strikes in Overnight Trade

  • SMK 310 puts – traded 125
  • WN 600 calls – traded 263
  • WK 550 calls – traded 130

Significant OI changes from previous session

  • SK 970 C decreased 1,191 (total 5,247)
  • SK 900 P decreased 1,254 (total 23,439)
  • SK 970 P decreased 1,515 (total 6,772)
  • SM 980 C increased 1,323 (total 2,093)
  • SM 950 P increased 1,652 (total 2,589)
  • SN 1010 C increased 1,019 (total 1,565)
  • SN 1020 C decreased 1,124 (total 7,488)
  • CK 390 C decreased 1,382 (total 15,096)
  • CK 400 C decreased 1,4440 (total 25,303)
  • CM 350 P increased 2,084 (total 4,224)
  • CN 420 C decreased 2,573 (total 14,888)
  • CN 450 C decreased 2,021 (total 14,393)
  • WN 560 C increased 1,425 (total 5,407)
  • WN 480 P increased 1,089 (total 5,302)

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

  • CK 460 P 38
  • SK 1080 P 21
  • CK 400 P 20
  • CK 410 P 13

Funds

COT

COT

COT

Current

24-Mar

31-Mar

to COT

1-Apr

2-Apr

6-Apr

7-Apr

8-Apr

9-Apr

Estimate

Corn

-35688

-28767

6921

8000

8000

0

-3000

-7000

-2000

-24767

Wheat

-76941

-83,136

-6195

7000

5000

-4000

-1000

-1000

-4000

-81,136

Soybeans

-44024

-43338

686

9000

-3000

-3000

-4000

1000

-9000

-52338

Soymeal

2860

9711

6851

4000

-2000

0

-2000

1000

-4000

6711

Soyoil

-2439

-8420

-5981

3000

-2000

0

-2000

-1000

-1000

-11420

News:

Dollar, stock market, gold, and silver higher. Crude oil lower

Nikkei down .15%

Hang Seng up 1.2%

Shanghai index up 1.9%

China grain market closings = beans up 1, corn up 7, meal down 35, palm oil down 30, and bean oil down 8.

Malaysian palm up 8.

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysian April 1-10 palm oil exports at 320,508 tons up 29.4% from a month ago

Surveyor Intertek estimated Malaysian April 1-10 palm oil exports at 324,545 tons up 23.8% from a month ago

South Korea NOFI bought 194,000 tons of optional origin corn for November shipment

South Korea KFMC seeks 24,000 tons of wheat for Aug-Sept shipment

Jordan bought 100,000 tons of feed barley for October shipment

China has bought 2.0 MMT of corn from the Ukraine so far in 2015

CONAB – Brazilian crop estimates

  • ‘14/15 bean crop estimated at 94.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 93.3 MMT
  • ‘14/15 corn crop estimated at 79.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 78.2 MMT
  • ‘14/15 bean exports estimated at 46.8 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 45.7 MMT in ‘13/14

Malaysian Palm Oil Board – March palm oil report

  • March palm oil output at 1,494,837 tons vs. average estimate of 1.32 MMT and vs. Feb palm oil output of 1.122 MMT
  • March palm oil stocks at 1,865,711 tons vs. average estimate of 1.75 MMT and vs. Feb palm oil stocks of 1.743 MMT
  • March palm oil exports at 1,181,932 tons vs. average estimate of 1.15 MMT and vs. Feb palm oil exports of 971,640 tons

Today is the third day of the Goldman Sachs / UBS roll. They are rolling long May positions into July. Roll ends on Tuesday.

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon – no changes

  • Wheat = 0
  • Oats = 0
  • Corn =59
  • Ethanol =173
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 1
  • Bean oil = 3,335
  • Soy meal = 0
  • Rice = 1,307
  • KC wheat = 295
  • Minneapolis wheat =  357

Open interest as of yesterday’s close:

  • Total corn 1,386,634 open, up 7,948
  • Total beans 778,006 open, up 13,485
  • Total meal 346,1247 open, up 5,716
  • Total bean oil 380,324 open, up 1,477
  • Total wheat 454,256 open, up 4,617
  • Total KC wheat 148,525 open, up 1,027

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out Monday at 3 pm CST
  • Stats Canada comes out with Canadian production estimates on Thursday April 23rd
  • USDA to restart monthly Census crush reports in July 2015.

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE