News From The Grain Floor 03/30/15

USDA Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks report comes out today at 11 am CST.

Today is month end.

Weather Highlights:

Midwest/Delta: Episodes of wet weather will slow early field work in the east and south areas.

US Plains: Dryness and above normal temperatures remain an issue for wheat areas (Kansas winter wheat conditions fell 2%).

Black Sea Region: Long term continues to suggest wet weather pick up in rains.

Argentina: Dry and warm forecast for the next 7-10 days to favor harvesting.

Overnight closes

  • SK down 4 ¼ at 963 ½
  • CK down 2 at 392 ½
  • WK down 5 at 525 ¼
  • KC WK down 4 at 572 ¼
  • MWK down 3 at 587 ¾
  • SMK down .90 at 322.30
  • BOK down 25 at 3024

Overnight volume

  • SK 10,563
  • CK 18,091
  • WK 9,785
  • KC WK 2,110
  • MWK 476
  • SMK 3,954
  • BOK 5,468

Overnight Option Volume

  • Corn 3,650
  • Beans 3,886
  • Meal 61
  • Soyoil 13
  • Wheat 1,458

Active Strikes in Overnight Trade

  • CK 365 puts – traded 508
  • CK 370 puts – traded 410
  • CK 390 puts – traded 230
  • SK 920 puts – traded 1,640
  • WK 520 puts – traded 463
  • WK 500 puts – traded 439

Significant OI Changes from previous session

  • CK 370 P increased 3,476 (total 24,307)
  • CK 380 P increased 1,846 (total 20,331)
  • CN 400 C increased  1,948 (total 34,328)
  • CN 400 P increased 1,379 (total 20,229)
  • SK 1000 C increased 1,382 (total 15,594)
  • SK 900 P increased 1,385 (total 26,356)
  • WK 520 C decreased 1,394 (total 6,406)

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

  • CU 410 P  2,001
  • CZ 410 P 1,566
  • CN 400 C 1,316
  • CU 410 C  934
  • CN 400 P  385

COT

COT

COT

Current

17-Mar

24-Mar

to COT

25-Mar

26-Mar

27-Mar

30-Mar

Estimate

Corn

-58325

-35688

22637

3000

-7000

-1000

6000

-34688

Wheat

-60035

-76,941

-16906

-3000

-9000

5000

10000

-73,941

Soybeans

-48484

-44024

4460

-2000

-4000

-4000

1000

-53024

Soymeal

5050

2860

-2190

-1000

-2000

-1000

1000

-140

Soyoil

-5259

-2439

2820

-1000

-1000

-2000

-1000

-7439

News:

Dollar and gold higher. Crude, stock market, and silver lower

Nikkei down 1.05%

Hang Seng up .2%

Shanghai index down .01%

China grain closings = beans up 14, corn down 5, meal down 16, palm oil down 8, and bean oil down 20.

Malaysian palm oil down 26

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s March palm oil exports at 1,140,355 tons up 14.8% from February

Surveyor Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s March palm oil exports at 953,053 tons up 21.4% from February

Taiwan MFIG bought 65,000 tons of US corn for May- June shipment

There will be a national strike of the whole transport sector in Argentina today.

Port workers at the Argentine grains hub of Rosario will hold a 24 hour strike today.

Crop progress by state from yesterday afternoon

  • Colorado winter wheat conditions 58% good to excellent vs. 55% a week ago
  • Oklahoma winter wheat conditions 44% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago
  • Nebraska winter wheat conditions 34% good to excellent vs. 62% a month ago
  • Kansas winter wheat conditions 39% good to excellent vs. 41% a week ago
  • Texas corn planting is 20% complete vs. 14% a week ago vs. 27% a year ago and vs. 43% average
  • Louisiana corn planting is 16% complete vs. 1% a week ago vs. 67% a year ago and vs. 81% average

Oil World estimates

  • ‘14/15 global bean crop estimated at 312.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 312.2 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 281.8 MMT
    • ‘14/15 US bean crop estimated at 108.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 91.4 MMT in ‘13/14
    • ‘14/15 Argentina bean crop estimated at 55.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 56.0 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 51.0 MMT
    • ‘14/15 Brazilian bean crop estimated at 94.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 91.5 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 86.1 MMT
    • ‘14/15 Paraguay bean crop estimated at 8.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 8.8 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 9.0 MMT
    • ‘14/15 global bean crush estimated at 251.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 252.0 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crush of 238.3 MMT
    • ‘14/15 global bean ending stocks estimated at 87.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 88.8 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 ending stocks of 65.6 MMT
    • ‘14/15 global sunseed production estimated at 41.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 41.0 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 production of 43.4 MMT
      • ‘14/15 China sunseed production estimated at 2.4 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and unchanged from ‘13/14 production
      • ‘14/15 Ukraine sunseed production estimated at 10.1 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. ‘13/14 production of 10.9 MMT
      • ‘14/15 EU sunseed production estimated at 9.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and unchanged from ‘13/14 production
      • ‘14/15 Russian sunseed production estimated at 9.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 9.0 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 production of 10.2 MMT
      • ‘14/15 Argentina sunseed production estimated at 2.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 2.6 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 production of 2.3 MMT
      • ‘14/15 global sunseed crush estimated at 37.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 36.9 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 production of 38.7 MMT
      • ‘14/15 global sunseed ending stocks estimated at 2.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 2.6 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 ending stocks of 2.9 MMT
      • ‘14/15 global rapeseed production estimated at 68.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 69.1 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 production of 69.6 MMT
        • ‘14/15 Indian rapeseed production estimated at 5.9 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.7 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 production of 6.7 MMT
        • ‘14/15 Chinese rapeseed production estimated at 11.2 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. ‘13/14 production of 11.8 MMT
        • ‘14/15 global rapeseed crush estimated at 66.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 66.9 MMT vs. ‘13/14 crush at 64.4 MMT

Receipt Registrations as of Friday afternoon – no changes

  • Wheat = 0
  • Oats = 0
  • Corn =59
  • Ethanol =175
  • Beans = 1
  • DDGs = 0
  • Bean oil = 3,335
  • Soy meal = 0
  • Rice = 1,307
  • KC wheat = 295
  • Minneapolis wheat =  357

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,336,651 open, up 967
  • Total beans 752,889 open, up 3,931
  • Total meal 340,641 open, up 1,060
  • Total bean oil 380,645 open, down 1,297
  • Total wheat 438,444 open, down 5,905
  • Total KC wheat 155,191 open, down 1,230

Upcoming reports/events

  • USDA 2015 prospective plantings and grain stocks report comes out today at 11 am CST . See below for estimates and see attachment for recap table.
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Tomorrow is the beginning of a new month
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • See attachment for Good Friday trading schedule. Grain markets will be closed. Interest rates will be open until 10 am CST, due to unemployment
  • Unemployment comes out Friday April 3rd at 730 am CST.
  • Weekly USDA crop progress report resumes Monday April 6th. Reports come out every Monday at 3 pm CST
  • CONAB comes out April 10thwith their 2015 Brazilian crop estimate updates . Previous estimates were
    • Bean crop estimated at 93.3 MMT
    • Corn crop estimated at 78.2 MMT
    • Bean exports estimated at 46.8 MMT
    • Stats Canada comes out with Canadian production estimates on April 23rd
    • USDA to restart monthly Census crush reports in July 2015.

Estimates for today’s USDA report.

Estimates for 2015 US planting intentions

  • Corn (29 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 88.731 MA, range of estimates are 87.0-89.7 MA. USDA outlook forum estimate was 89.0 MA. 2014 US corn planted area was 90.597 MA.
  • Beans (29 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 85.919 MA, range of estimates are 83.1 -88.0 MA. USDA outlook forum estimate was 83.5 MA. 2014 US bean planted area was 83.701 MA
  • All Wheat (24 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 55.796 MA, range of estimates are 54.95 -56.80 MA. USDA outlook forum estimate was 55.5 MA. 2014 all wheat planted area was 56.82 MA
  • Winter wheat (17 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 40.727 MA, range of estimates are 40.425 -42.00 MA. 2014 winter wheat planted area was 42.399 MA.
  • Other spring wheat (17 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 13.334 MA, range of estimates are 12.50- 14.503 MA. 2014 US other spring wheat planted area was 13.025 MA
  • Durum (17 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 1.759 MA, range of estimates are 1.400- 2.202 MA. 2014 US durum planted area was 1.398 MA

Estimates for US quarterly grain stocks

  • Wheat (19 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 1.140 BB, range of estimates are 1.083 -1.200 BB. December 1st 2014 wheat stocks were 1.525 BB and March 1st 2014 wheat stocks were 1.057 BB
  • Corn (22 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 7.609 BB, range of estimates are 7.459 -7.800 BB. December 1st 2014 corn stocks were 11.203 BB and March 1st 2014 corn stocks were 7.008 BB .
  • Beans (22 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 1.346 BB, range of estimates are 1.273 -1.404 BB. December 1st 2014 bean stocks were 2.524 BB and March 1st 2014 bean stocks were .994 BB

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE