News From The Grain Floor 03/26/15

USDA announced 280,000 tons of US beans sold to unknown for ‘15/16 shipment

Overnight closes

  • SK down 2 ¾ at 976
  • CK down ¾ at 394 ¼
  • WK up 1 ½ at 520 ½
  • KC WK unchanged at 563
  • MWK up 2 ¼ at 583
  • SMK down 1.40 at 323.10
  • BOK up 21 at 3121

Overnight volume

  • SK 16,145
  • CK 17,677
  • WK 5,820
  • KC WK 577
  • MWK 144
  • SMK 5,460
  • BOK 13,336

Opening calls

  • Beans 2-4 lower
  • Corn steady easier
  • Wheat 1-3 higher
  • KC wheat steady mixed
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 higher
  • Meal 1-2 lower
  • Bean oil 15-25 higher

Gold, silver, and crude oil higher. Dollar and stock market lower

Nikkei down 1.39%

Hang Seng down .1%

Shanghai index up .6%

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at -9K to 282K expecting 290K

China grain closings = beans down 65, corn down 17, meal down 13, palm oil up 8, bean oil down 4

Malaysian palm oil up 27

Brazilian government is meeting with truckers today.

South Korea KFA cancels tender to buy 65,000 optional origin corn and to buy 50,000 tons of optional origin feed wheat for October shipment

AgroConsult estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 95.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 94.7 MMT

AgroConsult estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 total corn crop at 79.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 79.0 MMT

Hearing Cordonnier estimated 2015 US corn acreage at 89.0 MA

Hearing Cordonnier estimated 2015 bean acreage at 85-86 MA

Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘14/15 Brazilian bean crop at 93.0 MMT unchanged from his previous estimate

Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘14/15 Brazilian corn crop at 74.0 MMT unchanged from his previous estimate

Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘14/15 Argentina bean crop at 56.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘14/15 Argentina corn crop at 23.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

South American weather forecast is improving for bean harvest.

Hearing Argentina bean harvest is about 5% complete, excellent yields being reported

SovEcon estimated Russia’s 2015 grain crop at 93.0 MMT  vs. previous estimate of 84.0 MMT and vs. 2014 crop of 105.0 MMT

Weekly US export sales report came out this morning

  • Wheat ‘14/15 102,300 tons ‘15/16 79,400 tons (expecting 250-650,000 tons)
  • Corn ‘14/15 435,000 tons ‘15/16 29,000 tons (expecting 400-700,000 tons)
  • Beans ‘14/15 505,800 tons ‘15/16 220,200 tons (expecting 100 -400,000 tons)
  • Meal ‘14/15 224,300 ‘15/16 3,900 tons (expecting 50 -200,000 tons)
  • Bean oil ‘14/15 22,400 tons (expecting 0-20,000 tons)

Export highlights

  • WheatNet sales of 102,300 metric tons for delivery in 2014/2015–a marketing-year low–were down 74 percent from the previous week and 75 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Ecuador (45,700 MT), China (35,000 MT, switched from the Philippines), Brazil (25,300 MT, including 20,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (23,200 MT, including 5,100 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 3,900 MT), the Philippines (16,000 MT), and Mexico (11,400 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (75,100 MT), Colombia (12,500 MT), and the French West Indies (7,000 MT). Net sales of 79,400 MT for 2015/2016 were for Mexico (28,000 MT), the Philippines (25,000 MT), unknown destinations (20,300 MT), and El Salvador (8,000 MT). Decreases were reported for Colombia (1,900 MT). Exports of 498,100 MT were up 2 percent from the previous week and 5 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Nigeria (117,600 MT), Brazil (58,300 MT), Thailand (57,100 MT), South Korea (56,100 MT), and the Philippines (51,000 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 435,000 MT for 2014/2015 were down 13 percent from the previous week and 29 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Japan (191,800 MT, including 122,700 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 88,100 MT), Mexico (92,300 MT, including 23,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 16,200 MT), Taiwan (87,200 MT, including 63,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), China (60,800 MT), and Saudi Arabia (54,100 MT, including 47,600 MT switched from unknown destinations). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (336,000 MT). Net sales of 29,000 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for Panama (16,900 MT), Mexico (10,700 MT), and Japan (1,400 MT). Exports of 1,065,900 MT were up 54 percent from the previous week and 4 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (310,500 MT), Mexico (295,700 MT, including 30,900 MT late reporting), Taiwan (80,000 MT), Colombia (68,900 MT), South Korea (67,900 MT), Saudi Arabia (54,100 MT), and Indonesia (32,600 MT, including 21,000 MT late reporting).
    • Beans – Net sales of 505,800 MT for 2014/2015 were up 48 percent from the previous week and 54 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Indonesia (133,200 MT, including 112,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), China (128,700 MT), Germany (102,400 MT, previously reported as the Netherlands), the Netherlands (56,800 MT, including 70,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 13,200 MT), and Japan (48,300 MT, including 29,500 MT switched from unknown destinations). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (22,500 MT). Net sales of 220,200 MT for 2015/2016 were for unknown destinations (128,000 MT), Mexico (90,000 MT), Japan (1,200 MT), and Taiwan (1,000 MT). Exports of 760,700 MT were up 19 percent from the previous week and 1 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (189,500 MT, including 57,700 MT late reporting), Indonesia (156,200 MT, including 52,300 MT late reporting), Mexico (136,100 MT), Germany (102,400 MT, previously reported as the Netherlands), the Netherlands (63,400 MT), and Japan (36,500 MT).
    • Meal – Net sales of 224,300 MT for 2014/2015 were up 10 percent from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (39,800 MT), Ecuador (33,000 MT), Canada (31,800 MT), Venezuela (25,000 MT), Panama (22,300 MT), and Colombia (18,900 MT, including 1,200 MT switched from unknown destinations). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (20,100 MT) and Vietnam (200 MT). Net sales of 3,900 MT for 2015/2016 were reported primarily for Mexico (1,900 MT) and Nicaragua (1,000 MT). Exports of 304,000 MT were up 38 percent from the previous week and 25 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Thailand (112,500 MT), the Philippines (47,200 MT), Cuba (23,100 MT), Mexico (21,800 MT), Canada (14,000 MT), Honduras (10,400 MT), and Colombia (10,300 MT).
      • Bean oil – Net sales of 22,400 MT for 2014/2015 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Morocco (18,000 MT), the Dominican Republic (1,700 MT), Canada (1,300 MT), Mexico (900 MT), and Guatemala (400 MT). Exports of 19,400 MT were up 12 percent from the previous week, but down 3 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Guatemala (11,000 MT), Nicaragua (4,000 MT), Mexico (2,900 MT), and Canada (1,300 MT).

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon

  • Wheat = 0
  • Oats = 104
  • Corn =59
  • Ethanol =175
  • Beans = 29
    • 183 bean receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of CIRM Chicago IL
    • Bean oil = 3,335
    • Soy meal = 0
    • Rice = 1,307
    • KC wheat = 295
    • Minneapolis wheat =  357

Moving averages

  • May bean 20 day 985 ¼
  • May bean 50 day 989
  • May corn 20 day 386 ½
  • May corn 50 day 389
  • May corn 100 day 396 ¼
  • May corn 200 day 394 ½
  • May wheat 50 day 515 ½
  • May KC wheat 50 day 552 ¼
  • May Minneapolis 50 day 574
  • May bean oil 20 day 3126
  • May bean oil 50 day 3160
  • May bean oil 100 day 3227
  • May meal 20 day 327.70
  • May meal 50 day 328.30
  • May meal 100 day 336.80

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,330,180 open, down 3,260
  • Total beans 738,296 open, up 10,011
  • Total meal 343,636 open, up 2,659
  • Total bean oil 379,820 open, up 4,851
  • Total wheat 433,628 open, up 5,686
  • Total KC wheat 155,205 open, up 1,227

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST , expecting up 6 BCF
  • April options expire tomorrow at 115 pm CST
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST.
  • USDA 2015 prospective plantings and grain stocks report comes out on Tuesday at 11 am CST . See below for estimates
  • Weekly USDA crop progress report resumes Monday April 6th. Reports come out every Monday at 3 pm CST
  • Stats Canada comes out with Canadian production estimates on April 23rd
  • USDA to restart monthly Census crush reports in July 2015.

Estimates for Tuesday’s USDA report.

USDA comes out Tuesday March 31st with their Quarterly Stocks and Prospective Plantings Report. Report comes out at 11 am CST.

Estimates for 2015 US planting intentions

  • Corn (29 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 88.731 MA, range of estimates are 87.0-89.7 MA. USDA outlook forum estimate was 89.0 MA. 2014 US corn planted area was 90.597 MA.
  • Beans (29 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 85.919 MA, range of estimates are 83.1 -88.0 MA. USDA outlook forum estimate was 83.5 MA. 2014 US bean planted area was 83.701 MA
  • All Wheat (24 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 55.796 MA, range of estimates are 54.95 -56.80 MA. USDA outlook forum estimate was 55.5 MA. 2014 all wheat planted area was 56.82 MA
  • Winter wheat (17 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 40.727 MA, range of estimates are 40.425 -42.00 MA. 2014 winter wheat planted area was 42.399 MA.
  • Other spring wheat (17 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 13.334 MA, range of estimates are 12.50- 14.503 MA. 2014 US other spring wheat planted area was 13.025 MA
  • Durum (17 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 1.759 MA, range of estimates are 1.400- 2.202 MA. 2014 US durum planted area was 1.398 MA

Estimates for US quarterly grain stocks

  • Wheat (19 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 1.140 BB, range of estimates are 1.083 -1.200 BB. December 1st 2014 wheat stocks were 1.525 BB and March 1st 2014 wheat stocks were 1.057 BB
  • Corn (22 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 7.609 BB, range of estimates are 7.459 -7.800 BB. December 1st 2014 corn stocks were 11.203 BB and March 1st 2014 corn stocks were 7.008 BB .
  • Beans (22 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 1.346 BB, range of estimates are 1.273 -1.404 BB. December 1st 2014 bean stocks were 2.524 BB and March 1st 2014 bean stocks were .994 BB

Overnight Option Volume:

  • Corn 3,348
  • Beans 3,736
  • Meal 36
  • Soyoil 172
  • Wheat 254

Active Strikes in Overnight Trade:

  • SJ 980 calls – traded 1,700
  • CK 420 calls – traded 300
  • CN 350 puts – traded 400
  • CN 400 calls – traded 500
  • CN 410 calls – traded 400

Significant OI Changes from previous session:

  • CJ 410 C  increased 1,572 (total 6,771)
  • CK 400 C  decreased 1,318 (total 25,577)
  • SK 990 C increased  1,554 (total 6,519)
  • SK 980 P increased 1,397 (total 19,920)

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session:

  • CN  400C   2,739
  • CN  400P   774
  • CU 410P   714
  • CZ  410P  643
  • CU 410C   313
  • WN 540C  29
  • WN 540P  14
  • WU 550P   6
  • WZ  560P   5

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE