News From The Grain Floor 03/24/15

Good morning.

“Our most intimate friend is not he to whom we show the worst , but the best of our nature.”

–          Nathaniel Hawthorne

Overnight closes

  • SK down 3 at 980 ½
  • CK down a ½ at 389 ¾
  • WK down 8 ¼ at 525 ¾
  • KC WK down 7 ¾ at 566 ¾
  • MWK down 7 ¼ at 582 ¾
  • SMK down 1.40 at 325.90
  • BOK down 9 at 3106

Overnight volume

  • SK 9,570
  • CK 11,179
  • WK 10,892
  • KC WK 1,338
  • MWK 214
  • SMK 3,389
  • BOK 6,181

Opening calls

  • Beans 2-4 lower
  • Corn steady easier
  • Wheat 7-10 lower
  • KC wheat 7-9 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 6-8 lower
  • Meal 1-2 lower
  • Bean oil 5-15 lower

Dollar lower. Gold, silver, stock market, and crude higher

Nikkei down .21%

Hang Seng down .4%

Shanghai index up .1%

March flash manufacturing PMIs

  • China’s HSBC flash at 49.2 (11 month low) expecting 50.6 and vs. February final of 50.7
  • France flash at 48.2 expecting 48.5 and vs. Feb final of 47.6
  • German flash at 52.4 expecting 51.5 and vs. Feb final of 54.7
  • Eurozone flash at 51.9 (10 month high) expecting 51.5 and vs. Feb final of 51.0
  • Japan flash at 50.4 vs. Feb final of 51.6

China grain closings = beans down 28, corn up 6, meal up 14, palm oil up 44, and bean oil up 48

Malaysian palm oil down 30

Argentina markets are closed today for holiday. Trading resumes tomorrow.

China auctioning wheat from reserves today and tomorrow.

Oman bought 1 cargo of Russian wheat for July-August shipment.

Oil World estimated ‘14/15 Indian oilseed crop at 33.7 MMT down 6% from a year ago. Breakdown:

  • ‘14/15 cottonseed crop estimated at 12.5 MMT unchanged from a year ago
  • ‘14/15 soybean crop estimated at 8.7 MMT vs. 8.8 MMT a year ago
  • ‘14/15 rapeseed crop estimated at 5.9 MMT vs. 6.7 MMT a year ago
  • ‘14/15 groundnuts crop estimated at 3.4 MMT vs. 4.4 MMT a year ago
  • ‘14/15 sunseed crop estimated at 400,000 tons vs. 600,000 tons a year ago

Ag Canada ‘15/16 Canadian crop estimates

  • Wheat crop estimated at 29.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 30.0 MMT and vs. ‘14/15 crop of 29.3 MMT
  • Wheat harvested area estimated at 9.7 MH unchanged from previous estimate
  • Barley crop estimated at 7.9 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 7.1 MMT in ‘14/15
  • Corn crop estimated at 12.2 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 11.5 MMT in ‘14/15
  • Canola crop estimated at 16.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 15.6 MMT in ‘14/15
  • Soybean crop estimated at 6.7 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 6.0 MMT in ‘14/15

Russia bought 14,850 tons of intervention grain , making the total bought since Sept 30th at 442,780 tons

UkrAgroConsult estimated Ukraine’s 2015 wheat crop at 20.6 MMT vs. 22.5 MMT in 2014

UkrAgroConsult estimated Ukraine’s 2015 corn crop at 23.0 MMT vs. 25.9 MMT in 2014

FranceAgriMer said as of March 16th 91% of France’s soft wheat crop was rated good to excellent unchanged from the week before and vs. 75% good to excellent a year ago

USDA attaché in Mexico estimated Mexico’s ‘15/16 corn production at 23.4 MMT unchanged from a year ago

USDA attaché in the Philippines estimated ‘14/15 wheat imports at 3.95 MMT up 13% from ‘13/14

USDA attaché in the Philippines estimated ‘15/16 wheat imports at 4.0 MMT

SAGIS said South Africa exported 2.003 MMT of corn by the end of February

SAGIS said South Africa’s February corn ending stocks were 3.338 MMT vs. 4.012 MMT at the end of January

Still a bit dry in Colorado, Oklahoma , and Texas

Rains in forecast for US wheat areas by next week

Rains in forecast for Russia

Oklahoma wheat conditions were 44% good to excellent vs. 40% a week ago

Texas wheat conditions were 55% good to excellent vs. 51% a week ago

Corn planting by state

  • LA corn planting is 1% complete vs. 17% a year ago and vs. 48% average
  • AR corn planting is 0% complete vs. 8% a year ago and 11% average
  • Texas corn planting is 14% complete vs. 19% a year ago and vs. 28% average

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon – no changes

  • Wheat = 0
  • Oats = 104
  • Corn =59
  • Ethanol =175
  • Beans = 212
  • Bean oil = 3,335
  • Soy meal = 0
  • Rice = 1,307
  • KC wheat = 295
  • Minneapolis wheat =  357

Moving averages

  • May bean 20 day 989
  • May bean 50 day 990 ½
  • May corn 20 day 385 ½
  • May corn 50 day 389 ¼
  • May corn 100 day 396 ¼
  • May corn 200 day 395
  • May wheat 50 day 517
  • May Minneapolis 50 day 574 ½
  • May bean oil 20 day 3134
  • May bean oil 50 day 3166
  • May bean oil 100 day 3235
  • May meal 20 day 329.40
  • May meal 50 day 328.60
  • May meal 100 day 337.20

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,339,930 open, up 5,871
  • Total beans 731,159 open, up 4,979
  • Total meal 336,553 open, up 253
  • Total bean oil 375,582 open, down 1,655
  • Total wheat 427,014 open, down 751
  • Total KC wheat 155,364 open, up 45

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • China wheat auction continues through tomorrow
  • China to auction rapeseed from reserves tomorrow
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s March 1-25th palm oil exports tomorrow
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Brazilian government and truckers meeting on Thursday
  • April options expire on Friday at 115 pm CST
  • USDA 2015 prospective plantings and grain stocks report comes out on Tuesday March 31st at 11 am CST
  • Weekly USDA crop progress report resumes Monday April 6th. Reports come out every Monday at 3 pm CST
  • Stats Canada comes out with Canadian production estimates on April 23rd
  • USDA to restart monthly Census crush reports in July 2015.