News From The Grain Floor 03/03/15

Good morning.

The public will believe anything, so long as it is not founded on truth.

–          Edith Sitwell

No USDA announcement this morning

Informa comes out today at 1030 am CST with their world production estimates. See below for previous estimates.

Overnight closes

  • SK down 4 ½ at 1009 ¼
  • CK up 1 ¾ at 389 ¾
  • WK up 1 ¾ at 501 ¾
  • KC WK up 1 ¾ at 527 ½
  • MWK up 2 ½ at 558
  • SMK down 2.30 at 331.20
  • BOK up 7 at 3292
  • RRK unchanged at 1079.50

Overnight volume

  • SK 18,173
  • CK 18,691
  • WK 6,294
  • KC WK 740
  • MWK 180
  • SMK 6,540
  • BOK 11,436
  • RRK 24

Opening calls

  • Beans 3-5 lower
  • Corn 1-3 higher
  • Wheat 1-3 higher
  • KC wheat 1-3 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 2-4 higher
  • Meal 2.00-3.00 lower
  • Bean oil 5-15 higher
  • Rice steady mixed

Silver and crude higher. Dollar, stock market, and gold lower.

Nikkei down .06%

Hang Seng down .7%

Shanghai Index down 2.2%

China grain market closings – beans down 17, corn down 1, meal down 28, palm oil up 8, and bean oil up 14.

Malaysian palm oil up 5.

Palm oil conference in Kuala Lumpur started today

  • BASF Personal Care and Nutrition said Malaysian palm oil prices to average 1,940 ringgit in 2015 , trade range 1,650 -2,300 ringgit.
  • Felda Global Ventures said current dry weather in Malaysia and the floods in December may hurt Malaysian palm oil production
  • United Plantations said Malaysian palm oil prices to average 2,000 -2,200 ringgit this year if Indonesia executes biodiesel mandates well.
  • Dorab Mistry said analysts that are estimating 2015 palm oil output in Malaysia at a record high are too optimistic , he said production will  not exceed 2014 production.
  • Malaysian government speaks at conference
  • Malaysia to implement B10 biodiesel program this year
  • Malaysia to explore extension of biofuel program to industry
  • Malaysia to consume 1.2 MMT of palm oil a year wheat B10 plan fully implemented

Chinese industry analysts – weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • Chinese New Year holiday was February 18 -24th. These figures are for the two weeks combined
    • For the week Feb 14 -27 total crush volume at 478,000 tons
    • For the week Feb 14 -27 total crush capacity utilization at 8.17% vs. 7.58% a week earlier
    • Total ‘14/15 (Oct 1, 2014- Feb 27, 2015) total crush volume at 29,207,950 tons up 1.57% from a year ago
    • Total 2015 (Jan 1 –Feb 27) total crush volume at 10,443,950 tons up 2.43% from a year ago
    • As of Feb 13th total imported bean stocks at 3.942 MMT vs. 4.2476 MMT a week earlier and down 27.83% from a year ago
    • Estimated March bean imports at 4.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 4.2 MMT
    • Estimated April bean imports at 5.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.6 MMT
    • Estimated May bean imports at 5.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.8 MMT

Vietnam seeking soymeal.

Algeria eyeing corn.

Egypt seeking corn

Japan seeks 130,929 tons of food wheat from US, Canada, and Australia for April –May shipment

Oil World estimated India’s ‘14/15 rapeseed production at 6.6 MMT vs. ‘13/14 production of 7.35 MMT

Oil World said EU palm oil imports fell by 4% in the fourth quarter of 2014.

Brazil truckers strike is winding down, but Brazilian truckers strike not completely resolved.

  • Hearing there are 18 blocked roadways in Brazil this morning in two states

UkrAgroConsult said Ukraine exported 681,000 tons of wheat in February

UkrAgroConsult said Ukraine exported 2.963 MMT of grain in February.

Morgan Stanley said US wheat winterkill fears are “likely overblown”

Some weather reports of above normal rains in Brazil the next 10 days, may slow second corn crop planting

Monthly US wheat conditions report came out yesterday afternoon.

  • KS good to excellent 44% vs. 49% a month ago and vs. 34% a year ago
  • KS poor to very poor 12% vs. 9% a month ago and vs. 22% a year ago
  • IL good to excellent 47% vs. 49% a month ago and vs. 54% a year ago
  • OK good to excellent 42% vs. 41% a month ago and vs. 31% a year ago
  • OK poor to very poor 16% vs. 13% a month ago and vs. 31% a year ago
  • TX good to excellent 46% vs. 42% a month ago and vs. 15% a year ago
  • TX poor to very poor 12% vs. 16% a month ago and vs. 46% a year ago
  • NE good to excellent 62% vs. 61% a month ago and vs. 43% a year ago
  • NE poor to very poor 3% vs. 3% a month ago and vs. 18% a year ago
  • CO good to excellent 48% vs. 38% a month ago
  • CO poor to very poor 11% vs. 14% a month ago

2015 crop insurance prices (suggests corn to bean ratio is 2.34 vs. 2.46 in 2014)

  • Corn price $4.15 vs. 2014 price of $4.62 and vs. $5.65 in 2013
  • Bean price $9.72 vs. $11.38 in 2014 and vs. $12.87 in 2013
  • Spring wheat price $5.85 vs. $6.51 in 2014 and vs. $8.44 in 2013

Informa comes out today at 1030 am CST with their world production estimates. Previous estimates were

  • ‘14/15 Brazilian bean crop at 93.5 MMT
  • ‘14/15 Brazilian total corn crop at 72.8 MMT
  • ‘14/15 Argentina bean crop at 57.0 MMT
  • ‘14/15 Argentina corn crop at 23.0 MMT
  • ‘14/15 South Africa corn crop at 13.0 MMT
  • ‘14/15 Kazakhstan wheat crop at 13.0 MMT
  • ‘14/15 Canadian wheat crop at 29.5 MMT
  • ‘14/15 China wheat crop at 125.0 MMT
  • ‘14/15 China bean crop at 11.9 MMT
  • ‘14/15 China canola crop at 16.5 MMT

Deliveries

  • Bean oil = 93 with the date at 2/10/15
    • Customer JP Morgan stopped 93
  • Rice = 371 with the date at 2/27/15
  • Corn = 1,180 with the date at 2/24/15
    • Customer JP Morgan issued 86
  • KC Wheat = 33 with the date at 2/18/15
    • Customer JP Morgan stopped 33
  • Minneapolis wheat = 78 with the date at 2/27/15
    • Term house stopped 44
  • No oats
  • No Chicago wheat
  • No beans
  • No meal

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday’s afternoon –No changes

  • Wheat  = 134
  • Oats = 100
  • Corn = 1,417
  • Ethanol = 155
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 1
  • Bean oil = 3,335
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 1,296
  • KC wheat = 168
  • Minneapolis wheat = 360

Moving averages

  • May bean 20 day 1000 ¼
  • May bean 50 day  1011 ½
  • May bean 100 day  1018 ¾
  • May corn 20 day  392 ¼
  • May corn 50 day  398 ¼
  • May corn 100 day   394 ½
  • May corn 200 day  402 ¼
  • May Chicago wheat 20 day 515 ½
  • May bean oil 20 day 3202
  • May bean oil 50 day 3224
  • May bean oil 100 day 3268
  • May bean oil 200 day 3473
  • May meal 20 day 332.20
  • May meal 50 day 334.70
  • May meal 100 day 336.00
  • May meal 200 day 345.60

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • March corn 16,313 open, down 4,984
  • Total corn 1,248,557 open, up 3,453
  • March beans 12,560 open, down 4,351
  • Total beans 667,870 open, down 3,747
  • March meal 6,282 open, down 1,879
  • Total meal 344,856 open, down 5,173
  • March bean oil 5,274 open, down 1,755
  • Total bean oil 352,779 open, down 3,982
  • March wheat 1,765 open, down 1,845
  • Total wheat 401,203 open, up 1,088
  • March KC wheat 1,245 open, down 448
  • Total KC wheat 164,069 open, up 1,090

Upcoming reports/events

  • Informa comes out today at 1030 am CST with their world crop estimates
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST , expecting
    • Crude a build of 3.95 MB
    • Gas a draw of 2.5 MB
    • Distillates a draw of 2.5 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST
  • January US unemployment comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • US trade balance report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • US daylight savings time is Sunday March 8th. Clocks move up one hour .
  • USDA March supply and demand and crop production report comes out on Tuesday March 10th
  • Last trading day for March futures is Friday March 13th. Futures expire at noon CST.
  • FOMC two day policy meeting comes out on Tuesday and Wednesday March 17-18
  • Informa comes out with 2015 US acreage estimates on Friday March 20th
  • USDA 2015 US acreage report comes out on Tuesday March 31st
  • Weekly USDA crop progress report resumes Monday April 6th. Reports come out every Monday at 3 pm CST.
  • Stats Canada comes out with Canadian production estimates on April 23rd
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com ,CME Group, and NYSE