News From The Grain Floor 03-30-15

Good morning

With the new day comes new strength and new thoughts.

–          Eleanor Roosevelt

USDA announced 131,172 tons of US corn sold to unknown for ‘14/15 shipment.

Rogers roll begins today . Rogers will be rolling long May positions forward. Rogers roll ends on Wednesday.

Overnight closes

  • SK down ¾ at 966 ½
  • CK up a ¼ at 391 ¼
  • WK up 4 at 511 ¾
  • KC WK up 5 ½ at 558 ½
  • MWK up 3 at 578
  • SMK unchanged at 321.40
  • BOK up 5 at 3065

Overnight volume

  • SK 8,268
  • CK 14,463
  • WK 7,856
  • KC WK 689
  • MWK 173
  • SMK 3,840
  • BOK 5,764

Opening calls

  • Beans steady easier
  • Corn steady mixed
  • Wheat 3-5 higher
  • KC wheat 5-7 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 2-4 higher
  • Meal steady mixed
  • Bean oil steady -10 higher

Crude, gold, and silver lower. Stock market and dollar higher

Nikkei up .65%

Hang Seng up 1.5%

Shanghai index up 2.6% , seven year high.

China grain closings = beans down 38, corn down 6, meal down 7, palm oil down 48, and bean oil down 54.

Malaysian palm oil up 21

Indonesia to keep April crude palm oil export tax unchanged at 0% .

Market talk last week of Brazilian corn import into the US East Coast.

Indonesia bought 40,000 tons of Argentine meal for June shipment last week.

Jordan seeks 100,000 tons of optional origin hard milling wheat for October –November shipment

Jordan seeks 100,000 tons of animal feed barley , optional origin for October- November shipment

Israel seeks 85,000 tons of optional origin corn for May –July shipment

Israel seeks 45,000 tons of optional origin feed wheat for April –June shipment

Guatemala seeking soy meal for May shipment

European Commission EU ‘15/16 estimates

  • Estimated corn imports at 8.86 MMT vs. 8.0 MMT a year ago
  • Estimated corn production at 68.0 MMT vs. 76.0 MMT a year ago
  • Estimated soft wheat production at 141.1 MMT vs. 148.2 MMT a year ago
  • Estimated soft wheat ending stocks at 16.2 MMT vs. 13.3 MMT a year ago

Industry analysts said palm oil share in India’s ‘14/15 edible oil imports seen falling to a 9 year low , only accounting for 65% of total edible oil imports

Industry analysts estimated India’s ‘14/15 edible oil imports at 13.0 MMT (record) up 12% from a year ago.

India’s Ag Min said rains between the end of February and mid March damaged crops on more than 10.67 million hectares, including 6.29 MH of wheat.

Industry analysts expect India’s ‘14/15 wheat crop to fall by up to 2% this season due to unseasonal rains.

Russia Ag Min said Russia exported 19.4 MMT of wheat between July 1st –March 25th up 29% from a year ago

USDA confirmed new infection of highly pathogenic avian flu in commercial turkey flock in Minnesota.

Favorable harvest forecast for Argentina for the next 10 days, warm and dry.

Lack of rains over the weekend in US grain belt, forecast doesn’t call for much rains in the near term. Hard red winter wheat areas need rain.

Receipt Registrations as of Friday afternoon – no changes

  • Wheat = 0
  • Oats = 0
  • Corn =59
  • Ethanol =175
  • Beans = 1
  • DDGs = 0
  • Bean oil = 3,335
  • Soy meal = 0
  • Rice = 1,307
  • KC wheat = 295
  • Minneapolis wheat =  357

Moving averages

  • May beans 20 day 979 ½
  • May corn 20 day 386 ¼
  • May corn 50 day 389
  • May corn 100 day 396
  • May corn 200 day 393 ¾
  • May wheat 20 day 506
  • May wheat 50 day 513 ¾
  • May wheat 50 day 514 ¼
  • May KC wheat 50 day 551
  • May Minneapolis 20 day 572
  • May Minneapolis 50 day 573
  • May bean oil 20 day 3103
  • May bean oil 50 day 3150
  • May meal 20 day 326.00
  • May meal 50 day 328.10

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • Total corn 1,338,003 open, up 7,860
  • Total beans 752,132 open, up 8,903
  • Total meal 339,931 open, down 1,435
  • Total bean oil 382,590 open, up 3,327
  • Total wheat 444,941 open, up 1,616
  • Total KC wheat 156,377 open, up 792

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Some US state planting progress/wheat conditions will come out today at 3 pm CST , weekly USDA crop progress reports resume Monday April 6th .
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s March palm oil exports tomorrow.
  • Tomorrow there will be a national strike of the whole transport sector in Argentina.
  • Port workers at the Argentine grains hub of Rosario will hold a 24 hour strike on tomorrow
  • USDA 2015 prospective plantings and grain stocks report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CST . See below for estimates and see attachment for recap table.
  • Tomorrow is month end.
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • See attachment for Good Friday trading schedule. Grain markets will be closed. Interest rates will be open until 10 am CST, due to unemployment
  • Unemployment comes out Friday April 3rd at 730 am CST.
  • Weekly USDA crop progress report resumes Monday April 6th. Reports come out every Monday at 3 pm CST
  • CONAB comes out April 10thwith their 2015 Brazilian crop estimate updates . Previous estimates were
    • Bean crop estimated at 93.3 MMT
    • Corn crop estimated at 78.2 MMT
    • Bean exports estimated at 46.8 MMT
    • Stats Canada comes out with Canadian production estimates on April 23rd
    • USDA to restart monthly Census crush reports in July 2015.

Estimates for tomorrow’s USDA report.

USDA comes out tomorrow with their Quarterly Stocks and Prospective Plantings Report. Report comes out at 11 am CST.

Estimates for 2015 US planting intentions

  • Corn (29 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 88.731 MA, range of estimates are 87.0-89.7 MA. USDA outlook forum estimate was 89.0 MA. 2014 US corn planted area was 90.597 MA.
  • Beans (29 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 85.919 MA, range of estimates are 83.1 -88.0 MA. USDA outlook forum estimate was 83.5 MA. 2014 US bean planted area was 83.701 MA
  • All Wheat (24 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 55.796 MA, range of estimates are 54.95 -56.80 MA. USDA outlook forum estimate was 55.5 MA. 2014 all wheat planted area was 56.82 MA
  • Winter wheat (17 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 40.727 MA, range of estimates are 40.425 -42.00 MA. 2014 winter wheat planted area was 42.399 MA.
  • Other spring wheat (17 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 13.334 MA, range of estimates are 12.50- 14.503 MA. 2014 US other spring wheat planted area was 13.025 MA
  • Durum (17 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 1.759 MA, range of estimates are 1.400- 2.202 MA. 2014 US durum planted area was 1.398 MA

Estimates for US quarterly grain stocks

  • Wheat (19 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 1.140 BB, range of estimates are 1.083 -1.200 BB. December 1st 2014 wheat stocks were 1.525 BB and March 1st 2014 wheat stocks were 1.057 BB
  • Corn (22 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 7.609 BB, range of estimates are 7.459 -7.800 BB. December 1st 2014 corn stocks were 11.203 BB and March 1st 2014 corn stocks were 7.008 BB .
  • Beans (22 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 1.346 BB, range of estimates are 1.273 -1.404 BB. December 1st 2014 bean stocks were 2.524 BB and March 1st 2014 bean stocks were .994 BB