News From The Grain Floor 02/04/15

Good morning.

 

“The difficult thing with quotes on the internet is verifying them”

– Abraham Lincoln

 

No USDA announcements this morning.

 

Overnight closes

  • SH down 5 ¾ at 981 ¼
  • CH down 2 ¼ at 383 ½
  • WH up 2 ¾ at 516 ½
  • KC WH up 2 ¼ at 561 ¼
  • MWH up 1 ¼ at 577 ¼
  • SMH  down 1.50 at 339.10
  • BOH down 3 at 3077

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 24,417
  • CH 16,592
  • WH 10,992
  • KC WH 1,637
  • MWH 380
  • SMH 6,240
  • BOH  14,317

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 5-7 lower
  • Corn 2-4 lower
  • Wheat  1-3 higher
  • KC wheat 1-3 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 higher
  • Meal 1.00-2.00 lower
  • Bean oil steady to 10 lower

 

Gold , silver, and dollar higher. Crude and stock market lower

 

Nikkei up 1.98%

Hang Seng up .5%

Shanghai Index down 1.0%

 

China grain closings beans up 10, corn up 17, meal up 39, palm oil up 48, and bean oil up 42.

 

Malaysian palm oil up 54

 

Stats Canada December 31st , 2014 stocks report comes out this morning at 730 am CST.

  • All wheat stocks at 24.82 MMT vs. average estimate of 25.0 MMT and vs. 28.68 MMT in 2013
  • Durum at 4.06 MMT vs. average estimate of 4.2 MMT and vs. 5.239 MMT in 2013
  • Canola at 11.10 MMT vs. average estimate of 10.7 MMT and vs. 12.421 MMT in 2013
  • Oats at 2.49 MMT vs. average estimate 2.5 MMT and vs. 2.848 MMT in 2013
  • Barley at 5.38 MMT vs. average estimate of 4.9 MMT and vs. 6.75 MMT in 2013

 

 

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon

  • Wheat  = 134
  • Oats = 98
  • Corn = 1,017
  • Ethanol = 0
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 1
  • Bean oil = 3,335
  • Soymeal = 2
  • Rice = 1,226
  • KC wheat = 218

 

Moving averages

  • March corn 20 day 384 ½
  • March corn 100 day 378 ¾
  • March meal 20 day 336.00
  • March meal 100 day 336.00

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,352,895 open, down 9,444
  • Total beans 709,284 open, up 6,271
  • Total meal 371,126 open, up 5,175
  • Total bean oil 407,169 open, down 95
  • Total wheat 427,804 open, down 1,232
  • Total KC wheat 166,559 open, down 1,680

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a build of 3.25 MB
    • Gas a draw of 1.15 MB
    • Distillates a draw of 1.5 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • January US trade balance report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • January US unemployment report comes out Friday at 730 am CST
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins on Friday and ends Thursday February 12th, they will be rolling long March positions into May.
  • USDA supply and demand and crop production report comes out Tuesday Feb 10 at 11 am CST
  • CONAB comes out Thursday Feb 12thwith their Brazilian crop estimate updates. Previous estimates were
    • ‘14/15 Brazilian bean crop estimated at 95.9 MMT
    • ‘14/15 Brazilian bean exports estimated at 49.6 MMT
    • ‘14/15 Brazilian corn crop estimated at 79.1 MMT
  • US markets will be closed Monday February 16th for Presidents Day holiday.
  • Brazil and Argentina markets will be closed Monday and Tuesday February 16-17th for Carnival
  • China markets will be closed February 19-25th for Lunar New Year holiday, markets resume trading February 26th
  • Annual USDA Outlook Forum is Thursday – Friday February 19th and 20th
  • Last trading day for March options is Friday February 20th. Options expire at 115 pm CST
  • Position day for March futures is Thursday February 26th . Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery.
  • First notice day for March futures is Friday February 27th.
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE