News From The Grain Floor 01/14/15

Good morning.

 

Instead of giving a politician the keys to the city, it might be better to change the locks.

–          Doug Larson

 

USDA announced 202,750 tons of US beans sold to unknown , 102,750 tons for ‘14/15 shipment and 100,000 tons for ‘15/16 shipment

 

USDA announced 125,000 tons of US corn sold to Taiwan for ‘14/15 shipment

 

Today is the last trading day for January futures. Futures expire at noon CST. Open interest as of yesterday’s close is

  • Jan beans 278 open, down 1,277
  • Jan meal 364 open, down 538
  • Jan bean oil 65 open, down 164
  • Jan rice 21 open, down 20

 

Yearly index fund rebalancing ends today.

 

Overnight closes

  • SH down 6 at 998
  • CH down 6 at 379 ¾
  • WH down 5 ¾ at 542 ¼
  • KC WH down 4 at 577 ¾
  • MWH down 5 at 583 ½
  • SMH down 3 at 330.60
  • BOH unchanged at 3254
  • RRH down 2 at 1142.5

 

March beans are trading under $10.00 and December’s low was $9.91.

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 24,585
  • CH 42,869
  • WH 10,230
  • KC WH 899
  • MWH 360
  • SMH 10,839
  • BOH 9,299
  • RRH 27

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 5-7 lower
  • Corn 5-7 lower
  • Wheat 4-6 lower
  • KC wheat 3-5 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 4-6 lower
  • Meal 2.50-3.50 lower
  • Bean oil steady mixed
  • Rice 1-3 lower

 

Gold higher. Crude, dollar, stock market, and silver lower .

 

Nikkei down 1.71%

Hang Seng down .4%

Shanghai index down .4%

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday afternoon

  • Crude a build of 3.9 MB expecting a build of 417,000 barrels
  • Gas a build of 1.6 MB expecting a build of 3.5 MB
  • Distillates a build of 416,000 expecting a build of 2.1 MB

 

China grain closings = beans down 13, corn up 2, meal down 47, palm oil down 40, and bean oil down 50.

 

Malaysian palm oil down 9.

 

Hearing China was eyeing Brazilian bean cargoes for March shipment yesterday

 

South Korea KOCOPIA bought 50,000 US beans for March /April shipment

 

Pakistan bought 66,000 tons of US soybeans

 

Pakistan seeking 60,000 tons of Brazilian beans for April shipment

 

Ecuador bought a cargo of US meal this week for February shipment

 

Israel bought 100,000 tons of optional origin (possibly Ukrainian) corn

 

Japan seeks 32,045 tons of feed wheat and 58,880 tons of barley via SBS tender for Feb-March shipment

 

Maldives seek 9,000 tons of optional origin rice

 

China’s customs data showed China imported 18.658 MMT of soybeans between October – December up 5.9% from a year ago

 

China customs data showed China imported 590,000 tons of veg oils in December up 47.5% from November

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India imported 823,846 tons of palm oil in December, expecting 700,000 tons, down 3.7% from a year ago , first decline in 6 months.

 

Argentine government reduced the biodiesel export tax to 6.15% from 12.57%

 

Rosario Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s ‘14/15 corn crop at 22.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 21.5 MMT

 

Rosario Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 54.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 55.0 MMT

 

Rosario Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s ‘14/15 wheat crop at 12.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 12.0 MMT

 

Safras e Mercado said Brazilian farmers have only sold 32% of their ‘14/15 bean crop vs. 45% a year ago and vs. 46% average

 

Cordonnier’s weekly South American crop updates

  • Estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 93.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 94.0 MMT
  • Estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 corn crop at 74.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Argentina’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 55.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Argentina’s ‘14/15 corn crop at 21.0 MMT unchanged from his previous estimate

 

IMEA said Mato Grosso bean crop is 2% harvested.

 

IMEA said early bean yields in Mato Grosso range from 30-56 BPA.

 

Parana’s bean crop is 3% harvested and yields range from 29 to 57 BPA.

 

Ag Resource estimating Brazilian bean crop at 94-96 MMT

 

Better South American weather forecast.

 

An important road for soy and corn shipments linking to ports in northern Brazil will not be paved until 2016, Brazil’s transport minister said yesterday

 

Ukraine’s Ag Min asked traders to cap milling wheat exports at 200,000 tons per month in January and February despite large volume of wheat stocks, traders said on Tuesday – Reuters.

 

Russia bought 4,320 tons of intervention grain, making the total since September 30th at 313,180 tons. Russia government plans to buy 5.0 MMT of intervention grain.

 

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 65 with the date current
  • Rice 20 with the date current
  • Beans 118 with the date at 01/08/15
  • No soymeal

 

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon

  • Wheat  = 164
  • Oats = 98
  • Corn = 1,017
  • Ethanol = 0
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 132
    • 11 new bean receipts were registered yesterday afternoon
      • 11 out of CHS Inc. Pekin, IL
  • Bean oil = 3,336
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 1,296
  • KC wheat = 318

 

Estimated fund activity from yesterday

  • Wheat sold 3K
  • Corn sold 15K
  • Beans sold 4K
  • Meals sold 2K
  • Bean oil sold 1K

 

Open outcry option players from yesterday

Corn:

RJO sold 3000 H 410 puts/sold 900 CH

ADM sold 2000 G 390 puts

ICAP bot 1000 G 420 calls

Man sold 1000 Z 410-430-450 call fly

Bache sold 1000 H 415 puts/sold 650 CH

RJO bot 2000 G 400-420 call spreads

FCS sold 500 H 410 calls/bot 220 CH

Paper sold 1000 K 430 calls/380 put strangles

Paper bot 1000 H 365 puts

Paper bot 1000 H 380 puts

 

Beans:

Rand bot 1000 K 960 puts/sold 2000 K 860 puts

RJO bot 1500 H 960-910 put spreads

JPM sold 1000 H 1000 puts/sold 360 SH

FI bot 1000 H 990-950 put spreads

Bache bot 2800 H 990-950 put spreads/bot 420 SH

Drax bot 2000 H 940 puts

Drax sold 500 H 1020 puts/sold 260 SH

Bache bot 800 K 1000-900 put spreads

Bache sold 500 H 1000-940 put spreads

Rosenthal bot 500 H 1020 puts

Rosenthal bot 500 K 1140 calls

Rosenthal bot 500 H 970-940 put spreads/bot 50 SH

Rosenthal sold 500 K 880 straddles

ICAP bot 500 N 1000 puts/sold 1500 N 900 puts

ADM bot 750 N-X CSO 20 cents puts

 

Wheat:

UBS bot 1500 WH 600 calls/sold 2400 CH 425 calls

Drax bot 1500 H 640 calls/sold 1500 H 540 puts

FCS bot 1500 H 600 calls

FI bot 1500 J 550 puts/sold 1000 H 580 puts

FI bot 800 K 550 puts/sold 800 H 550 puts

JPM sold 800 H 630 puts/sold 728 WH

 

Meal:

RJO bot 1500 K 350 calls/sold 1500 K 300 puts

Rosenthal bot 400 G 350 calls

Bache sold 500 H 360 puts

Bache sold 300 H 340 puts

RJO sold 500 N 300 puts

RJO sold 200 K 330 straddles

JPM bot 400 H 300 puts

ABN sold 300 K 340 straddles

ADM bot 200  H 370 calls

Macquarie sold 200 Z 410 calls/bot 200 Z 270 puts

 

Oil:

Rosenthal bot 700 H 33-34 call spreads

Bache sold 300 K 33-34 call spreads

 

Moving averages

  • CH 100 day 377 ¼
  • BOH 20 day 3258
  • BOH 50 day 3268
  • BOH 100 day 3293
  • SMH 100 day 336.90

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,275,129 open, up 5,100
  • Total beans 619,119 open, up 4,331
  • Total soymeal 338,737 open, up 5,989
  • Total bean oil 358,809 open, down 925
  • Total wheat 369,011 open, down 1,727
  • Total KC wheat 132,875 open, up 1,082

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a build of 1.75 MB
    • Gas a build of 3.75 MB
    • Distillates a build of 2.10 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST.
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will come out tomorrow with their Malaysian Jan 1-15th palm oil export estimates
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST . Expecting -228 BCF
  • Informa comes out tomorrow at 1030 am with ‘15/16 US acreage estimates.
  • NOPA December crush report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CST
  • I will be out of the office starting Friday January 16th and will return on Monday January 26th. If you need assistance you can call the desk at 312-588-5508.
  • See attachment for Martin Luther King Jr. holiday trading schedule. US markets are closed on Monday January 19th for holiday.
  • ECB meets in Frankfurt for the first time in 2015 on January 22nd
  • February options expire Jan 23rd at 115 pm CST
  • Greece elections January 25th
  • FOMC 2 day policy meeting January 27-28
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE