News From The Grain Floor 01/06/15

Good morning.

 

“Always borrow money from a pessimist, he won’t expect it back.”

–          Oscar Wilde

 

USDA announced 243,000 tons of US beans sold to China for ‘15/16 shipment

 

Informa comes out today at 1030 am CST with their final 2014 US crop production estimates. Previous estimates from Informa were

  • 2014 US corn crop estimated at 14.493 BB
  • 2014 US corn yield estimated at 174.4 BPA
  • 2014 US bean crop estimated at 3.991 BB
  • 2014 US bean yield estimated at 47.9 BPA

 

Overnight closes

  • SH up 7 at 1052 ¼
  • CH up 2 at 408
  • WH up 7 ¼ at 596 ¼
  • KC WH up 7 ¼ at 632
  • MWH up 8 ½ at 630
  • SMH up 1.60 at 355.60
  • BOH up 6 at 3293
  • RRH down 5 at 1153.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 19,541
  • CH 12,560
  • WH 6,168
  • KC WH 656
  • MWH 311
  • SMH 5,987
  • BOH 6,734
  • RRH 28

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 5-10 higher
  • Corn 1-3 higher
  • Wheat 6-8 higher
  • KC wheat  6-8 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 7-10 higher
  • Meal 1.00-2.00 higher
  • Bean oil steady to 10 higher
  • Rice 3-5 lower

 

Crude lower. Dollar, stock market, gold, and silver higher.

 

Nikkei down 3.02%

Hang Seng down 1.0%

Shanghai Index unchanged

 

China grain closings = beans up 28, corn up 15, meal up 32, palm oil up 2, and bean oil up 34

 

Malaysian palm oil up 20

 

China grain auctions started today. China will auction 2.0 MMT of wheat , 5.0 MMT of corn and 8.0 MMT of rice from state reserves today – Thursday.

 

China bought 120,000 tons of hard wheat over the past few days optional origin.

 

Algeria bought 500,000 tons of milling wheat last week. Optional origin for March/April shipment

 

Tunisia seeks 117,000 tons of soft milling wheat optional origin for Feb March shipment

 

Tunisia seeks 50,000 tons of barley optional origin for Feb March shipment

 

Kuwaiti seeks 80,000 tons of optional origin feed barley for April/May shipment

 

Abiove said Brazil exported 13.7 MMT of meal in 2014 vs. 13.3 MMT in 2013

 

Abiove said Brazil exported 45.7 MMT of beans in 2014 vs. 42.8 MMT in 2013

 

Abiove said Brazil exported 1.31 MMT of bean oil in 2014 vs. 1.36 MMT in 2013

 

India’s government said as of Jan 2nd India has planted 29.3 MH of wheat vs. 29.4 MH a year ago

 

USDA said as of Sunday 24% of Illinois winter wheat crop was rated good to excellent vs. 56% a year ago

 

Analysts estimated Vietnam’s 2015 rice exports at 7.0-7.5 MMT vs. 2014 exports of 7.5 MMT

 

Bitter cold in US

 

South American weather mostly favorable some dry areas in Northeast Brazil and Southwest Argentina

 

Hearing Mato Grosso early bean harvest showing excellent yields. 10-15% higher than a year ago

 

Weekly US export inspections report from yesterday

  • Wheat = 352,829 tons expecting 250 -400,000 tons
  • Corn = 538,945 tons expecting 675 -800,000 tons
  • Beans = 1,406,496 tons expecting 1.3-1.5 million tons

 

Weekly COT supplemental report from yesterday afternoon. Large spec positions as of Dec 30th . Futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 16,628
  • KC wheat long 5,073
  • Corn long 182,710
  • Beans short 3,122
  • Meal long 46,201
  • Bean oil long 28,682

 

16 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Cargill Creve Coeur IL

 

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon

  • Wheat = 165
  • Oats = 98
  • Corn = 1,017
  • Ethanol = 0
  • DDG = 0
  • Soybeans = 21
  • Bean oil = 3,405
  • Meal = 0
  • Rice = 844
  • KC wheat = 318

 

Deliveries:

  • Rice = 3 with the date at 12/30/14
  • No beans
  • No meal
  • No bean oil

 

Moving averages:

  • March bean 20 day 1041 ¾
  • March bean 50 day 1036 ½
  • March corn 20 day 405 ¼
  • March corn 50 day 393 ¼
  • March corn 200 day 417 ½
  • March KC wheat 50 day 622
  • March KC wheat 100 day 613 ½
  • March bean oil 20 day 3233
  • March bean oil 50 day 3279
  • March bean oil 100 day 3298
  • March meal 20 day 354.50
  • March meal 50 day 351.20
  • March meal 200 day 357.10

 

Estimated fund activity from yesterday:

  • Wheat bought 2,000
  • Corn bought 9,000
  • Beans bought 10,000
  • Meal bought 4,000
  • Bean oil bought 4,000

 

Open outcry option players from yesterday:

Corn:

JPM sold 1600 H 410 calls

JPM bot 1500 K 460 calls covered

FCS bot 500 H 400 puts/sold 1000 H 370 puts

 

Beans:

FI sold 3500 H 960-920 put spreads

FI sold 1500 H 1020-9890 put spreads

Drax bot 1000 H 1140 calls

ABN bot 2000 X 820 puts

ABN bot 850 K 1020-940 put spreads

TJM bot 500 K 1020-940 put spreads

Drax sold 500 H 1030-1060 call spreads/bot 75 SH

ADM bot 500 H 980-950 put spreads

JPM bot 400 H 1140 calls

Rosenthal sold 400 H 1030-1000 put spreads/sold 60 SH

 

Meal:

RJO sold 1000 H 310 puts

Tenco bot 500 H 350 calls covered

RJO sold 300 K340 straddles

Macquarie bot 200 H 330 puts covered

 

Oil:

Rosenthal bot 300 H 34 calls

Bache bot 350 H 30 ½ puts

Drax bot 250 H 34 calls

Rosenthal bot 250 G 31 ½ puts

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,254,851 open, up 16,295
  • Jan beans 8,971 open, down 1,903
  • Total beans 609,700 open, up 3,260
  • Jan meal 5,150 open, down 676
  • Total soymeal 339,081 open, up 151
  • Jan bean oil 1,895 open, down 368
  • Total bean oil 361,104 open, up 2,956
  • Total wheat 374,518 open, up 84
  • Total KC wheat 131,587 open, down 772

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • US trade balance report comes out on Wednesday Jan 7th at 730 am CST
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a build of 750,000 barrels
    • Gas a build of 4.5 million barrels
    • Distillates a build of 2.125 million barrels
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Tomorrow the minutes from the FOMC December meeting comes out about 1 pm CST
  • Yearly fund rebalance takes place Thursday January 8th – 14th. Hearing
    • Assumed $60 billion Bloomberg and $70 billion GSCI as of 12/30
      • Live Cattle sell 10,248
      • Lean Hogs sell 889
      • WTI crude oil buy 18,591
      • Brent oil buy 39,217
      • RBOB buy 11,197
      • Nat Gas buy 16,078
      • Heating Oil buy 6,202
      • Wheat sell 10,343
      • Corn sell 18,445
      • Beans buy 3,990
      • Aluminum sell 13,386
      • Gold sell 5,721
      • Copper buy 549
      • Zinc sell 4,463
      • Nickel sell 8,954
      • Silver buy 2,355
      • Sugar sell 7,438
      • Cotton buy 4,044
      • Coffee sell 15,558
      • KC wheat sell 2,741
      • Bean oil sell 1,136
      • Soymeal buy 1,131
      • Feeder cattle buy 1,200
      • Gasoil sell 10,661
      • Lead buy 404
      • Cocoa buy 546
  • CONAB comes out with their ‘14/15 Brazilian crop estimate updates on January 9th. Previous estimates were
    • Bean crop estimated at 95.8 MMT (record)
    • Bean exports estimated at 49.6 MMT
    • Total corn crop estimated at 78.7 MMT
    • Wheat crop estimated at 5.95 MMT
  • December unemployment comes out on Friday Jan 9th at 730 am CST
  • SGS and Intertek Agri Services comes out on January 12th with their Malaysian Jan 1-10th palm oil export estimates
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board December palm oil data report comes out January 12th
  • Final 2014 US crop production, and grain stocks  USDA report comes out on Monday January 12th at 11 am CST. Report estimates should be out by this afternoon.
  • Last trading day for Jan futures is Jan 14th , futures expire at noon CST
  • I will be out of the office starting Friday January 16th and will return on Monday January 26th. If you need assistance you can call the desk at 312-588-5508.
  • ECB meets in Frankfurt for the first time in 2015 on January 22nd
  • February options expire Jan 23rd at 115 pm CST
  • Greece elections January 25th
  • FOMC 2 day policy meeting January 27-28
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE