News From The Grain Floor 01/05/15

Good morning.

 

“Success is getting what you want, happiness is wanting what you get.”

–          Ingrid Bergman

 

USDA announced 233,000 tons of US beans sold to China for ‘14/15 shipment

 

Overnight closes

  • SH up 11 ¾ at 1019 ¼
  • CH up 6 ¼ at 402
  • WH up  10 ½ at 591 ¾
  • KC WH up 9 ¾ at 626 ¾
  • MWH up 10 ½ at 621 ½
  • SMH up 5.70 at 341.60
  • BOH down 4 at 3205
  • RRH unchanged at 1154.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 18,427
  • CH 22,013
  • WH 8,035
  • KC WH 1,083
  • MWH 308
  • SMH 7,279
  • BOH 8,049
  • RRH 35

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 10-15 higher
  • Corn 5-8 higher
  • Wheat 8-12 higher
  • KC wheat 8-12 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 8-12 higher
  • Meal  5.50-6.50 higher
  • Bean oil steady to 10 lower
  • Rice steady mixed

 

Gold, silver, and dollar higher. Stock market and crude lower

 

Nikkei down .24%

Hang Seng down .6%

Shanghai Index up 3.6% (five year high)

 

Reports/talk over the weekend that Greece may exit the Eurozone. Greece to hold elections on January 25th

 

China Dalian Exchange grain prices as of 7 am = beans up 26, corn down 9, meal up 2, palm oil down 22, and bean oil down 2.

 

Malaysian palm oil down 21

 

The National Bank of Argentina carried out its threat does not finance to stored soybean by Fernando Bertello | The Nation | 01/03/2015 – see attachment for article.

 

NDRC said yesterday that China will lift controls on prices of 24 commodities and services

 

China to auction 2.0 MMT of wheat , 5.0 MMT of corn and 8.0 MMT of rice from state reserves tomorrow – Thursday. Analysts expecting corn auction to be poor.

 

China has bought a total of 26.5 MMT of US beans this marketing year.

 

Last week China was seeking cargoes of US DDGS for Feb –March shipment

 

Some analysts estimating Brazil’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 96-98 MMT (record)

 

Some analysts say India’s wheat crop may hit a record 100.0 MMT

 

Early bean harvest in Mato Grosso , Brazil will start in about 2-3 weeks, hearing very early fields that have been harvested in Mato Grosso are showing very good/high yields.

 

Mostly favorable forecast for South America. Some parts of Brazil may be a little dry.

 

Concerns about winterkill in US wheat crop , bitter cold temps.

 

Extra feed may be used due to extreme cold in the US

 

More rains in forecast for Malaysia. Floods in Malaysia have been causing problems for palm oil output

 

58 bean oil receipts canceled Friday afternoon out of Cargill Creve Coeur, IL

 

Receipt Registrations as of Friday afternoon

  • Wheat = 165
  • Oats = 98
  • Corn = 1,017
  • Ethanol = 0
  • DDG = 0
  • Soybeans = 21
  • Bean oil = 3,421
  • Meal = 0
  • Rice = 844
  • KC wheat = 318

 

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 10 with the date at 12/29/14
    • Customer JP Morgan stopped 2
    • House ADM stopped 8
  • Rice 2 with the date at 12/30/14
  • No beans
  • No meal

 

Moving averages

  • March bean 100 day 1015 ¼
  • March corn 20 day 404 ¼
  • March corn 50 day 392 ½
  • March KC wheat 50 day 621 ¼
  • March KC wheat 100 day 613 ½
  • March bean oil 20 day 3228
  • March bean oil 50 day 3278
  • March bean oil 100 day 3300
  • March meal 20 day 354.10
  • March meal 50 day 350.70
  • March meal 100 day 336.90
  • March meal 200 day 357.10

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • Total corn 1,238,439 open, up 1,745
  • Jan beans 10,874 open, down 3,232
  • Total beans 606,264 open, up 6,887
  • Jan meal 5,815 open, down 1,187
  • Total soymeal 339,041 open, down 2,206
  • Jan bean oil 2,328 open, down 806
  • Total bean oil 358,251 open, up 2,910
  • Total wheat 374,536 open, up 3,187
  • Total KC wheat 132,369 open, up 797

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am
  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST (delayed due to holiday last week)
  • China to auction 2.0 MMT of wheat , 5.0 MMT of corn and 8.0 MMT of rice from state reserves tomorrow – Thursday
  • Informa comes out on Tuesday at 1030 am CST with their final 2014 crop production estimates. Previous estimates were
    • 2014 US corn crop estimated at 14.493 BB
    • 2014 US corn yield estimated at 174.4 BPA
    • 2014 US bean crop estimated at 3.991 BB
    • 2014 US bean yield estimated at 47.9 BPA
    • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
    • CONAB comes out with their ‘14/15 Brazilian crop estimate updates on January 9th. Previous estimates were
      • Bean crop estimated at 95.8 MMT (record)
      • Bean exports estimated at 49.6 MMT
      • Total corn crop estimated at 78.7 MMT
      • Wheat crop estimated at 5.95 MMT
  • US trade balance report comes out on Wednesday Jan 7th at 730 am CST
  • Yearly fund rebalance takes place January 8th – 14th. Hearing
    • Assumed $60 billion Bloomberg and $70 billion GSCI as of 12/30
      • Live Cattle sell 10,248
      • Lean Hogs sell 889
      • WTI crude oil buy 18,591
      • Brent oil buy 39,217
      • RBOB buy 11,197
      • Nat Gas buy 16,078
      • Heating Oil buy 6,202
      • Wheat sell 10,343
      • Corn sell 18,445
      • Beans buy 3,990
      • Aluminum sell 13,386
      • Gold sell 5,721
      • Copper buy 549
      • Zinc sell 4,463
      • Nickel sell 8,954
      • Silver buy 2,355
      • Sugar sell 7,438
      • Cotton buy 4,044
      • Coffee sell 15,558
      • KC wheat sell 2,741
      • Bean oil sell 1,136
      • Soymeal buy 1,131
      • Feeder cattle buy 1,200
      • Gasoil sell 10,661
      • Lead buy 404
      • Cocoa buy 546
  • December unemployment comes out on Friday Jan 9th at 730 am CST
  • Final 2014 US crop production, and grain stocks  USDA report comes out on Monday January 12th at 11 am CST
  • Last trading day for Jan futures is Jan 14th , futures expire at noon CST
  • February options expire Jan 23rd at 115 pm CST
  • Greece elections January 25th
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE