News From The Grain Floor 01/02/15

Good morning.

 

“Leverage is wonderful if you win, but it kills you if you lose,”

–          Michael Greenberger

 

USDA announced 210,000 tons of corn sold to Japan for ‘15/16 shipment

 

US grain markets have been closed since Wednesday afternoon.

 

Opening calls

  • Beans steady mixed or 2-4 lower
  • Corn 1-2 lower
  • Wheat steady to 2 lower
  • KC wheat steady easier
  • Minneapolis wheat steady easier
  • Meal steady to 2.00 lower
  • Bean oil mixed

 

Dollar, stock market, silver higher. Gold and crude oil lower.

 

Today is the start of a new month and a new year.

 

Japan and China are closed.

 

Hang Seng up 1.1%

 

Final December mfg PMIs

  • China at 50.1 (lowest in 18 months) vs. 50.3 in November
  • UK at 52.5 vs. 53.3 In November
  • Eurozone at 50.6 vs. 50.1 in November
  • Greece at 49.4 vs. 49.1 in November
  • France at 47.5 vs. 48.4 in November
  • Italy at 48.4 (lowest in 19 months)
  • German at 51.2 vs. 49.5 in November

 

Malaysian palm oil up .8%

 

SGS estimated Malaysia’s December palm oil exports at 1.298 MMT down .9% from a month ago

 

Intertek Agri Services estimated December palm oil exports at 1.313 MMT down .9% from a month ago

 

Malaysian government official said Malaysia palm oil output to decline around 15-30% in December due to floods vs. usual rate of 10% for this season.

 

Floods in Malaysia may lower palm oil output

 

South American weather mostly favorable

 

Pakistan wheat is being offered for export after imports in 2014

 

UkrAgroConsult said Ukraine winter grains as of Dec 25th are 41% in good condition vs. 57% a year ago and 18% in poor condition vs. 8% a year ago.

 

UkrAgroConsult ‘14/15 Russian export estimates

  • Wheat estimated at 20.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 22.3 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 exports of 18.3 MMT
  • Barley estimated at 3.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 4.3 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 exports of 2.7 MMT
  • Corn estimated at 3.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 3.8 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 exports of 4.1 MMT

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange – Weekly Argentina crop progress report from Wednesday

  • Bean planting is 90.6% complete vs. 81.2% a week ago
  • Bean planting area estimated at 20.6 MH unchanged from previous estimate
  • Corn planting is 74.5% complete vs. 65.5% a week ago
  • Corn planting area estimated at 3.0 MH unchanged from previous estimate
  • Wheat harvest is 87.7% complete vs. 75.7% a week ago
  • Wheat crop estimated at 11.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat = ‘14/15 354,100 ‘15/16 18,000, expecting 200-400,000 tons
  • Corn = ‘14/15 895,100, expecting 600 -800,000 tons
  • Beans = ‘14/15 611,000, expecting 550 -750,0000 tons
  • Meal = ‘14/15 157,900 ‘15/16 1,400, expecting 50-150,000 tons
  • Bean oil = ‘14/15 24,700, expecting 0-20,000 tons

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 354,100 metric tons for delivery in the 2014/2015 marketing year were up 21 percent from the previous week, but down 8 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Taiwan (78,300 MT), Dominican Republic (58,000 MT), Nigeria (32,500 MT), South Korea (32,200 MT), and Italy (31,600 MT). Net sales of 18,000 MT for 2015/2016 were for Colombia. Exports of 150,100 MT were down 61 percent from the previous week and 62 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (49,700 MT), South Korea (32,700 MT), Italy (31,500 MT), Venezuela (20,000 MT), and South Africa (10,400 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 895,100 MT for 2014/2015 were down 46 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Japan (266,100 MT, including 47,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 9,000 MT), unknown destinations (190,100 MT), Guatemala (122,700 MT), Mexico (119,200 MT), Peru (70,200 MT, including 40,000 MT switched from Colombia and decreases of 5,400 MT), and South Korea (60,000 MT). Decreases were reported for Costa Rica (4,800 MT) and Canada (4,000 MT). Exports of 667,800 MT were down 11 percent from the previous week and 9 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (180,800 MT), Peru (163,200 MT), Japan (161,800 MT), Colombia (100,100 MT), Costa Rica (26,200 MT), and Canada (13,500 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 611,000 MT for 2014/2015 were up 6 percent from the previous week, but down 25 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for China (344,200 MT, including 113,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 15,100 MT), South Korea (79,000 MT, including 58,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Spain (72,800 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Bangladesh (55,000 MT), Pakistan (50,000 MT), and Indonesia (37,600 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (128,000 MT), Egypt (2,300 MT), Russia (2,000 MT), Costa Rica (1,200 MT), and Turkey (400 MT). Exports of 1,065,900 MT were down 54 percent from the previous week and 51 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (655,400 MT), Spain (72,800 MT), South Korea (59,900 MT), Egypt (57,700 MT), Taiwan (30,000 MT), and Israel (30,000 MT).
  • Meal- Net sales of 157,900 MT for 2014/2015 were down 24 percent from the previous week and 6 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Guatemala (59,600 MT, including 6,700 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (25,000 MT), unknown destinations (23,900 MT), Honduras (10,400 MT), Canada (8,900 MT), and Colombia (6,100 MT, including 5,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 100 MT). Decreases were reported for Jamaica (800 MT). Net sales of 1,400 MT for 2015/2016 were for Mexico. Exports of 186,300 MT were down 26 percent from the previous week and 30 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Vietnam (48,600 MT), the Philippines (43,100 MT), Cuba (22,500 MT), Mexico (20,300 MT), Colombia (16,000 MT), and Canada (10,600 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 24,700 MT for 2014/2015 were up noticeably from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Morocco (15,000 MT), Mexico (4,700 MT), and Peru (2,100 MT). Exports of 29,300 MT were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 17 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were the Dominican Republic (20,100 MT), Nicaragua (4,800 MT), Mexico (3,200 MT), and Costa Rica (1,000 MT).

 

58 meal receipts were canceled Wednesday afternoon out of Incobrasa Industries Gilman IL

 

Receipt Registrations as of Wednesday afternoon

  • Wheat = 165
  • Oats = 98
  • Corn = 1,017
  • Ethanol = 0
  • DDG = 0
  • Soybeans = 21
  • Bean oil = 3,479
  • Meal = 0
  • Rice = 844
  • KC wheat = 318

 

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 182 with the date at 12/29/14
    • Customer JP Morgan stopped 84
    • House ADM stopped 98
    • Beans 20 with the date at 10/27/14
    • Rice 99 with the date at 12/30/14

 

Moving averages

  • March bean 20 day 1041
  • March bean 50 day 1034 ½
  • March bean 100 day 1016
  • March corn 20 day 403 ½
  • March corn 50 day 391 ½
  • March wheat 50 day 575
  • March KC wheat 50 day 621 ½
  • March KC wheat 100 day 613 ½
  • March Minneapolis wheat 20 day 630 ¾
  • March bean oil 20 day 3227
  • March bean oil 50 day 3279
  • March bean oil 100 day 3303
  • March meal 20 day 354.40
  • March meal 50 day 350.30
  • March meal 100 day 337.00
  • March meal 200 day 357.30

 

Open interest as of Wednesday’s close

  • Total corn 1,237,356 open, up 7,441
  • Jan beans 14,106 open, down 9,201
  • Total beans 599,366 open, down 7,297
  • Jan meal 7,002 open, down 1,637
  • Total soymeal 341,260 open, down 1,276
  • Jan bean oil 3,074 open, down 2,515
  • Total bean oil 355,347 open, down 3,837
  • Total wheat 371,841 open, down 136
  • Total KC wheat 131,573 open, up 856

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am
  • China to auction 2.0 MMT of wheat , 5.0 MMT of corn and 8.0 MMT of rice from state reserves Tuesday – Thursday
  • Informa comes out on Tuesday at 1030 am with final 2014 US production estimates.
  • US trade balance report comes out on Wednesday Jan 7th at 730 am CST
  • Yearly fund rebalance takes place January 8th – 14th. Hearing
    • Assumed $60 billion Bloomberg and $70 billion GSCI as of 12/30
      • Live Cattle sell 10,248
      • Lean Hogs sell 889
      • WTI crude oil buy 18,591
      • Brent oil buy 39,217
      • RBOB buy 11,197
      • Nat Gas buy 16,078
      • Heating Oil buy 6,202
      • Wheat sell 10,343
      • Corn sell 18,445
      • Beans buy 3,990
      • Aluminum sell 13,386
      • Gold sell 5,721
      • Copper buy 549
      • Zinc sell 4,463
      • Nickel sell 8,954
      • Silver buy 2,355
      • Sugar sell 7,438
      • Cotton buy 4,044
      • Coffee sell 15,558
      • KC wheat sell 2,741
      • Bean oil sell 1,136
      • Soymeal buy 1,131
      • Feeder cattle buy 1,200
      • Gasoil sell 10,661
      • Lead buy 404
      • Cocoa buy 546
  • December unemployment comes out on Friday Jan 9th at 730 am CST
  • Final 2014 US crop production, and grain stocks  USDA report comes out on Monday January 12th at 11 am CST
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE