News From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 09/08/15

News:

Last week Algeria bought 550,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat for Oct-Nov shipment, last week it was reported that Algeria bought 400,000 tons of wheat.

Iraq bought 100,000 tons of Canadian hard wheat

Jordan retenders for 100,000 tons of optional origin wheat for Nov –Dec shipment , after not getting enough bids in original tender

Weekly US export inspections report came out today at 10 am CST.

  • Wheat at 371,343 tons, expecting 375-525,000 tons
  • Corn at 894,609 tons , expecting 775 -900,000 tons
  • Beans at 93,308 tons , expecting 125-275,000 tons

Oil World estimated India’s ‘15/16 veg oil imports at 14.0 MMT vs. ‘14/15 record imports of 14.1 MMT

  • Estimated ‘15/16 palm oil imports at 9.5 MMT up 3.9% from a year ago
  • Estimated ‘15/16 sunflower oil imports at 1.58 MMT up 1.3% from a year ago
  • Estimated ‘15/16 bean oil imports at 2.6 MMT down 8.5% from a year ago

Oil World said dry weather in India seen reducing India’s oilseed crops for the second year in a row.

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India’s government may have to raise import duties on veg oils to 25% from 7.5% currently.

Oil World estimated Brazil’s ‘15/16 bean planting area at 32.8 MH (record) vs. 31.9 MH in ‘14/15

Mato Grosso bean planting to start September 16th

FC Stone estimated Brazil’s ‘15/16 bean crop at 100.9 MMT (record) vs. ‘14/15 estimate of 96.2 MMT

Shipping agency Williams Brazil said as of Sept 4th Brazilian ports scheduled to ship 9.14 MMT of beans vs. 8.44 MMT a week ago

Shipping agency Williams Brazil said as of Sept 4th Brazilian ports scheduled to ship 9.99 MMT of corn vs. 9.03 MMT a week ago

Talk continues of Argentina farmers switching from corn to bean acres

A Bloomberg survey estimated EU 2015 corn crop at 60.2 MMT down 23% from 2014 due to drought vs. previous estimate of 62.8 MMT and vs. 2014 record crop of 78.0 MMT

Ukraine Ag Min estimated Ukraine’s ‘15/16 wheat exports at 15.9 MMT vs. 11.2 MMT in ‘14/15

Ukraine Ag Min estimated Ukraine’s ‘15/16 corn exports at 16.9 MMT vs. 18.8 MMT in ‘14/15

Ukraine Ag Min estimated Ukraine’s total 2015 grain exports at 36.0 MMT vs. 34.8 MMT in 2014

Ukraine Ag Min estimated Ukraine’s total 2015 grain crop at 57-60 MMT vs. 63.8 MMT in 2014

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine has exported 6.42 MMT of grain between July 1-Sept 7 up 20% from a year ago

Ukraine Ag Min said as of Sept 8th Ukraine has harvested 37.5 MMT of grain on 10.44 MH with an average yield of 3.59 TPH. A year ago Ukraine harvested 36.3 MMT of grain on 10.0 MH.

UkrAgroConsult said Ukraine exported 2.2 MMT of wheat in August almost triple the amount in July

IKAR estimated Russia’s 2015 wheat crop at 60.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 61.8 MMT

IKAR estimated Russia’s 2015 barley crop at 16.9-17.1 MMT, unchanged from previous estimate

IKAR estimated Russia’s 2015 corn crop at 12.5-13.0 MMT, unchanged from previous estimate

Russia’s customs data showed Russia exported 6.8 MMT of wheat between Jan – July 2015 vs. 8.4 MMT a year ago

Japan to cut imported wheat prices to domestic millers by 5.7% between Oct-March

French customs data said France exported 1.24 MMT of soft wheat in July vs. 1.01 MMT a year ago

French customs data said France exported 537,699 tons of corn in July down 3.9% from a year ago

French customs data said France exported 934,345 tons of barley in July (highest monthly total since 1999) up 19% from a year ago

France’s corn harvest should start next week

MDA Information Systems said the first killing frost in Western Canada is not likely to reach Alberta and central Saskatchewan until around September 16th , and reach Manitoba around September 18th . Heavy rains late last week forced Canadian farmers to suspend harvest.

MDA said Western Canada has harvested about 35-40% of their canola crop

MDA said Western Canada has harvested about 50% of their spring wheat crop.

MDA Weather Service said France will remain dry in most areas favoring harvesting , rains in forecast late this week.

MDA Weather Service said Poland needs rain.

Head of rice committee said Egypt to lift ban on Egyptian rice exports, could export up to 1.0 MMT of rice this season

Thailand sold 246,793 tons of rice from stocks .

Philippines to import an additional 750,000 tons of rice , concerns about El Nino

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat bought 4,000
  • Corn bought 6,000
  • Beans bought 7,000
  • Meal bought 3,000
  • Bean oil bought 5,000

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST. Expecting corn and beans good to excellent condition to be down 1- 2% from a week ago.
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Sept 1-10th palm oil exports on Thursday
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out on Thursday with their August palm oil data report. Based on a Reuters survey , expecting

o   August palm oil stocks average estimate is 2.41 MMT vs. July stocks of 2.265 MMT

o   August palm oil exports average estimate is 1.63 MMT vs. July exports of 1.602 MMT

o   August palm oil output average estimate is 2.0 MMT vs. July output of 1.816 MMT

  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out on Thursday at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out on Thursday at 930 am CST
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out on Thursday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out on Thursday at 10 am CST
  • CONAB comes out Friday morning with their ‘14/15 Brazilian crop estimate updates. CONAB will start estimating ‘15/16 crops in October. Previous estimates from CONAB were

o   ‘14/15 bean crop previously estimated at 96.2 MMT vs. ‘13/14 crop of 86.1 MMT

o   ‘14/15 bean exports previously estimated at 49.1 MMT vs. ‘13/14 exports of 45.7 MMT

o   ‘14/15 total corn crop previously estimated at 84.3 MMT vs. ‘13/14 crop of 80.1 MMT

o   ‘14/15 corn exports previously estimated at 26.4 MMT vs. ‘13/14 exports of 20.9 MMT

o   2015 wheat crop previously estimated at 7.00 MMT

o   ‘14/15 total grain crop previously estimated at 208.8 MMT

  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out on Friday at 11 am CST. Estimates for this report should be out late this afternoon or early tomorrow morning.

Option players:

  • Dowd bought 1,500 Nov bean 900 calls and sold 3,000 Nov bean 960 calls at 7 7/8 – 8 debit
  • RJO sold 1,000 Nov bean 840-800 put spreads at 7 ½
  • Rand bought 700 Jan bean 800 puts and sold 700 Nov bean 800 puts at 6 debit
  • FI bought 600 Jan bean 800 puts and sold 600 Nov bean 800 puts at 5 3/8 -5 ½ .
  • RJO sold 600 Oct bean 880 straddles at 37 ½ -38
  • ICAP bought 1,500 Oct corn 380 calls at 4 ¾
  • EDF Mann bought 1,500 March corn 370 puts at 22 ¾ -23 ¼
  • Rand bought 1,000 Oct corn 350 p / 390 c strangles at 5 ½ -5 3/8
  • Macquarie bought 800 Dec corn 370 puts at 9
  • ICAP bought 7,000 March corn 370 puts at 23 ¼ tied to futures at 377 ½
  • JP Morgan bought 600 Oct wheat 500 calls at 2 7/8 -2 ¾
  • RJO bought 1,000 Oct wheat 450 puts and sold 400 Oct wheat 470 puts at 3 ¼
  • EDF Mann bought 600 Oct wheat 500 calls and sold 1,200 Oct wheat 440 puts at an 1/8 tied to futures at 472 ½
  • Rand bought 1,800 Nov meal 290 puts at 4.90-5.25
  • RJO bought 300 Nov meal 280 puts at 2.70
  • ADM sold 300 Nov bean oil 27 p / 28 c strangles at 166
  • Drax sold 400 Dec bean oil 2550 p / 30 c strangles at 100

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

Corn:

V15 370 19 / 20 29.25%

X15 370 29.5 / 30.25 28.50%

Z15 370 36.25 / 37 27.50%

H16 380 54.5 / 55 27.00%

K16 390 64 / 66 26.50%

N16 390 72 / 74 26.25%

Z16 390 79 / 81 23.50%

Beans:

V15 880 36 / 38 24.25%

X15 880 54 / 56 22.25%

Z15 880 65 / 67 21.00%

F16 880 75 / 77 20.00%

H16 880 90 / 93 19.50%

K16 880 99 / 103 18.50%

N16 880 113 / 117 18.25%

U16 880 119 / 125 17.75%

X16 880 127 / 133 17.50%

Wheat:

V15 470 21.50 / 23 26.50%

Z15 470 43 / 45.50 25.75%

H16 480 65.50 / 66.75 25.75%

K16 490 76.50 / 80 25.50%

N16 490 88 / 93 25.50%

KC wheat:

V15 470 21 / 22 25.50%

Z15 470 42 / 44 25.50%

H16 490 65 / 68 25.50%

K16 490 78 / 82 25.50%

N16 510 90 / 94 25.50%

Minneapolis wheat:

Z15 505 39 / 43 22.75%

H16 520 60 / 64 23.00%

K16 530 62 / 67 23.00%

N16 540 85 / 91 24.00%

Meal:

V15 310 14.5 / 15.5 27.50%

X15 310 23.0 / 24.0 27.00%

Z15 310 28.0 / 29.0 25.75%

F16 310 32.0 / 33.0 24.25%

H16 310 35.5 / 37.5 22.00%

K16 300 38.0 / 40.0 20.75%

N16 300 41.5 / 43.5 20.00%

Q16 300 42.0 / 44.0 19.25%

U16 300 42.5 / 45.5 18.75%

V16 300 43.0 / 46.0 18.25%

Z16 300 45.0 / 48.0 17.75%

Bean oil:

V15 27.0 135 / 155 31.00%

X15 27.0 200 / 220 27.50%

Z15 27.0 240 / 260 25.75%

F16 28.0 270 / 310 24.00%

H16 28.0 330 / 360 23.25%

K16 28.0 370 / 410 22.25%

N16 28.0 400 / 440 21.25%

Q16 28.0 410 / 460 20.75%

U16 28.0 410 / 460 20.00%

V16 28.0 420 / 470 19.50%

Crush quotes:

                   Open                   Closes

Oct         101.0-102.0         97.5-99.0

Dec        101.5-102.0         98.0-99.0

Jan         98.0-99.0              94.5-96.0

Mch       94.0-95.0              91.5-92.5

May       87.0-88.5              84.5-86.0

Jly           85.5-88.0              83.0-84.5

Aug        85.5-89.0              83.0-85.0

Dec6      97.0-101.0           96.5-98.0

JanDec5  98.0-99.0           95.0-96.0

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE