News From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 08/31/15

News:

Last night Dalian (China) corn futures traded limit down last night and made new contract lows.

  • Rumors continue that China may adjust downward their minimum price for new crop corn by 5-10%

India has a huge appetite for edible oil imports

Hearing last week China bought as much as 25-30 cargoes of soybeans . Hearing they bought at least 5 cargoes from Brazil from October shipment

Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of optional origin wheat

Alberta canola harvest is 1.8% complete

Alberta spring wheat harvest is 8.1%

Weekly US export inspections report

  • Wheat = 601,639 tons expecting
  • Corn = 1.0 million tons expecting
  • Beans = 184,285 tons , expecting

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat bought 2,000
  • Corn bought 1,000
  • Beans bought 3,000
  • Meal sold 1,000
  • Bean oil bought 1,000

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST. Expecting good to excellent conditions to be steady to down 1% from a week ago in corn and beans
  • August PMIs come out tonight/tomorrow morning .
  • Tomorrow is the start of a new month
  • FC Stone comes out tomorrow at about 3 pm CST with their US crop estimate updates. FC Stone’s previous estimates were

o   2015 corn crop estimated at 13.381 BB

o   2015 corn yield estimated at 165.0 BPA

o   2015 bean crop estimated at 3.797 BB

o   2015 bean yield estimated at 45.0 BPA

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • Informa will come out sometime this week (possibly Wednesday or Thursday) at 1030 am CST. Previous estimates from Informa were

o   2015 corn crop estimated at 13.412 BB

o   2015 corn yield estimated at 165.4 BPA

o   2015 bean crop estimated 3.789 BB

o   2015 bean yield estimated at 45.4 BPA

  • China markets will be closed Thursday and Friday for holiday
  • Stats Canada July 31st stock reports comes out on Thursday at 730 am CST . Expecting

o   All wheat average estimate 6.5 MMT vs. 10.351 MMT a year ago

o   Durum average estimate 1.1 MMT vs. 1.779 MMT a year ago

o   Canola average estimate 1.4 MMT vs. 2.438 MMT a year ago

o   Oats average estimate .7 MMT vs. 1.034 MMT a year ago

o   Barley average estimate .9 MMT vs. 1.95 MMT a year ago

o   Flax average estimate .098 MMT vs. .084 MMT a year ago  

Option players:

Corn:

JPM sold 1500 H 400 calls-350 put strangles

JPM bot 500 H 390 straddles

Rand sold 500 Z 380 calls-360 put strangles

RJO bot 500 V 380 puts/bot 300 CZ

ICAP sold 500 V 370 puts/sold 230 CZ

FI sold 700 K 470 calls/bot 146 CK

RJO sold 500 X 400 calls

RJO sold 600 V 370 puts/sold 288 CZ

Macquarie bot 1000 Z’16 330 puts/sold 1000 Z ’15 350 puts/bot 200 CZ’16/sold 280 CZ’15

Beans:

TJM sold 700 F 840-820 put spreads/bot 700 F 780-760 put spreads

JPM sold 500 X 960 calls-810 put strangles

Rand bot 500 X 860-830 put spreads

Man bot 500 X 820 puts/bot 110 SX

Man sold 500 V 970 puts

Wheat:

ABN bot 500 H 490 puts/bot 260 WH

FI bot 700 V 500-515 calls/sold 84 WZ

FI bot 500 X 550 calls

ABN bot 1000 X 460 puts/sold 2000 Z 440 puts/bot 100 WZ

ICAP sold 600 Z 500 calls/bot 228 WZ

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

Corn:

V15 375 20 / 20.5 25.40%

X15 375 31 / 31.5 27.20%

Z15 375 36 / 38 27.10%

H16 380 55 / 56 26.60%

K16 390 66 / 67 26.70%

Beans:

V15 880 42 / 44 23.50%

X15 880 59 / 61 22.25%

Z15 880 69 / 71 21.00%

F16 880 79 / 82 20.25%

H16 900 95 / 99 19.75%

K16 900 104 / 108 18.50%

N16 900 117 / 121 18.50%

U16 880 122 / 128 18.00%

X16 880 130 / 136 17.75%

Wheat:

V15 480 24.5 / 26 25.50%

Z15 480 44.75 / 45.5 24.75%

H16 490 70.5 / 73 25.00%

K16 490 76 / 81 25.50%

N16 490 90 / 93 25.50%

KC wheat:

V15 480 24 / 25 24.25%

Z15 480 44 / 46 24.50%

H16 490 67 / 69 24.75%

K16 500 80 / 83 25.00%

N16 510 93 / 96 25.00

Minneapolis wheat:

Z15 510 42 / 48 23.00%

H16 510 63 / 67 23.00%

K16540 75 / 80 23.00%

Meal:

V15 315 18.0 / 19.0 28.00%

X15 310 25.0 / 26.0 27.00%

Z15 310 30.0 / 31.0 26.00%

F16 310 33.0 / 34.0 24.25%

H16 310 37.5 / 38.5 22.50%

K16 310 40.0 / 42.0 20.75%

N16 310 43.5 / 45.5 20.00%

Q16 310 44.5 / 46.5 19.50%

U16 310 45.5 / 47.5 19.00%

V16 300 44.0 / 47.0 18.50%

Bean oil:

V15 28.0 165 / 185 29.50%

X15 28.0 220 / 240 26.75%

Z15 28.0 265 / 285 26.00%

F16 28.0 290 / 320 24.00%

H16 29.0 340 / 380 22.50%

K16 29.0 370 / 410 22.00%

N16 29.0 420 / 460 21.25%

Q16 29.0 420 / 470 20.50%

U16 29.0 430 / 480 20.00%

Crush quotes:

                Open                     Closes

Sep        118.0-121.0         112.5-116.5

Oct         115.5-117.0         110.0-111.0

Dec        112.0-113.0         107.5-109.0

Jan         104.5-106.5         101.0-102.5

Mch       99.0-100.0           96.5-97.5

May       89.0-91.0              89.0-90.5

Jly           88.0-90.0              88.0-90.5

Aug        88.0-92.0              84.5-90.0

Dec6      98.5-103.5           98.5-100.5

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE