News From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 08/28/15

News:

Egypt bought 55,000 tons of Ukraine wheat for October shipment , yesterday they bought 60,000 Russian wheat for Oct shipment

China sold only 40,855 tons of corn at this week’s auction, they offered 5.0 MMT of corn

German Farm Min estimated 2015 wheat crop at 26.4 MMT down 5% from a year ago

European Commission estimated EU 2015 soft wheat crop at 140.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 139.4 MMT

European Commission estimated EU 2015 corn crop at 58.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 65.5  MMT

COPA said for the week ending Aug 28th Canadian crushers crushed 129,676 tons of canola up 3.8% from a week ago

COPA said for the week ending Aug 28th Canadian crushers crushed 44,887 tons  of soybeans down 6.3% from a week ago

Annual Fed meeting in Jackson Hole WY continues ends tomorrow .

Argentina farmers five day crop sales strike ended today. Analysts saying the strike will NOT be extended

India’s summer crop planting area as of Aug 28th

  • Rice planted on 34.59 MH vs. 34.55 MH a year ago
  • Pulses planted on 10.55 MH vs. 9.42 MH a year ago
  • Coarse cereals planted on 17.25 MH vs. 16.72 MH a year ago
  • Oil Seeds planted on 17.46 MH vs. 17.23 MH a year ago
  • Total plantings at 96.78 MH  vs. 95.69 MH a year ago

CME Group said it raised margins on CBOT soybeans, soy oil and rough rice futures effective after the close today. Details  at   http://bit.ly/1WVkG9I .

Today was position day for September futures. Monday is first notice day. Expectations for deliveries tonight are

  • Beans 0
  • Meal 0
  • Bean oil 1,500 -2,500
  • Corn 100-500
  • Chicago wheat 0-500
  • KC Wheat 400-800
  • Minneapolis wheat 200-600

Weekly COT supplemental report. Large spec positions as of Aug 25, futures and options combined

  • Wheat = short 41,980
  • KC  wheat = short 28,242
  • Corn = long 18,646
  • Beans = short 24,071
  • Meal = long 49,874
  • Bean oil = short 20,963

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat sold 5,000
  • Corn even
  • Beans bought 5,000
  • Meal sold 3,000
  • Bean oil bought 7,000

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Monday is month end
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s August palm oil exports on Monday
  • Monday is first notice day for September futures
  • Weekly US export inspections report on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report on Monday at 3 pm CST
  • FC Stone comes out on Tuesday at about 3 pm CST with their US crop estimate updates. FC Stone’s previous estimates were

o   2015 corn crop estimated at 13.381 BB

o   2015 corn yield estimated at 165.0 BPA

o   2015 bean crop estimated at 3.797 BB

o   2015 bean yield estimated at 45.0 BPA

  • Informa will come out sometime next week at 1030 am CST. Previous estimates from Informa were

o   2015 corn crop estimated at 13.412 BB

o   2015 corn yield estimated at 165.4 BPA

o   2015 bean crop estimated 3.789 BB

o   2015 bean yield estimated at 45.4 BPA

  • USDA Sept crop production and supply and demand report comes out Friday Sept 11th at 11 am
  • Stats Canada July 31st stock reports comes out on Thursday at 730 am CST . Expecting

o   All wheat average estimate 6.5 MMT vs. 10.351 MMT a year ago

o   Durum average estimate 1.1 MMT vs. 1.779 MMT a year ago

o   Canola average estimate 1.4 MMT vs. 2.438 MMT a year ago

o   Oats average estimate .7 MMT vs. 1.034 MMT a year ago

o   Barley average estimate .9 MMT vs. 1.95 MMT a year ago

o   Flax average estimate .098 MMT vs. .084 MMT a year ago  

Option players:

  • Cunningham sold 2,000 Nov / Jan bean 800 put calendars at 5 1/8
  • Macquarie bought 1,000 Nov bean 940 calls and sold 1,000 Nov 800 puts at 3 ¾ debit and sold 360 Nov bean futures at 881
  • ICAP bought 1,000 Oct corn 370 calls and sold 2,000 Dec corn 430 calls at 1 ½
  • ICAP bought 1,000 Dec corn 370 puts at 15 ¾ tied to futures at 377 ½
  • Dowd bought 1,000 March corn 380 puts at 24 5/8 -24 ¾ tied to futures at 387
  • RJO sold 1,000 Oct wheat 490 calls at 12-12 ¼
  • RJO bought 500 Oct wheat 500-530 call spreads at 5 3/8
  • RJO bought 2,000 Dec meal 290 puts at 6.70
  • Rand sold 300 Dec bean oil 27-28 call spreads at 52
  • FI sold 1,000 Dec bean oil 30.5 calls at 42

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

Corn:

V15 375 19.75 / 20.25 24.14%

X15 375 31 / 31.50 26.70%

Z15 375 38 / 38.50 26.70%

H16 390 57 / 58 26.80%

K16 390 65 / 67 26.30%

Beans:

V15 880 45.50 / 46.50 23.20%

X15 880 61 / 62 22.30%

F16 880 82 / 83 20.50%

H16 900 97.50 / 98.50 20.20%

K16 900 107 / 109 18.80%

N16 900 119 / 121 18.50%

Wheat:

V15 480 27 / 29 25.50%

Z15 480 47 / 48 25.50%

H16 490 67 / 70 25.25%

K16 500 80 / 83 25.00%

N16 500 90 / 93 25.25%

KC wheat:

V15 480 26 / 28 25.00%

Z15 480 45 / 47 25.25%

H16 500 68 / 70 25.00%

K16 510 80 / 83 25.00%

N16 520 92 / 95 25.00%

Meal:

V15 315 19 / 20 27.50%

X15 310 25.50 / 27 26.50%

Z15 320 31 / 33 26.00%

F16 310 34 / 35 24.00%

H16 310 37 / 39 23.50%

Bean oil:

V15  28 170 / 185 28.50%

X15 28 230 / 245 26.00%

Z15  28 265 / 280 25.25%

F16  28.50 290 / 315 23.50%

H16 28.50 345 / 375 22.50%

Crush quotes:

                    Open                   Closes

Sep        117.5-120.0         118.0-120.0

Oct         115.0-116.5         115.0-116.0

Dec        113.0-114.0         112.0-112.5

Jan         106.5-108.0         104.5-105.5

Mch       101.5-102.5         99.0-99.5

May       93.5-94.0              91.0-92.0

Jly           91.5-93.5              89.5-90.0

Aug        92.0-96.0              90.5-92.0

Dec6      101.0-106.0         102.0-103.0

Novsep127.0-128.0         125.0-127.0

JanDec 109.0-110.5          106.0-107.0

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE