News From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 08/27/15

News:

Egypt GASC bought 60,000 tons of Russian wheat for October shipment

Egypt GASC is in for wheat again tonight for October shipment.

Taiwan bought 49,350 tons of US wheat for Oct shipment

Jordan seeks 100,000 tons of feed barley optional origin

IGC estimates

  • ‘15/16 global grain production at 1.988 billion tons , up 18.0 million tons from previous estimate and vs. ‘14/15 record production of 2.015 billion tons
  • ‘15/16 Russian wheat crop estimated at 59.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 54.0 MMT
  • ‘15/16 Ukraine wheat crop estimated at 25.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 22.0 MMT
  • ‘15/16 EU wheat crop estimated at 151.9 MMT vs. previous estimate of 148.5 MMT
  • ‘15/16 US corn crop estimated at 340.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 332.0 MMT
  • ‘15/16 Canada wheat crop at 25.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 28.0 MMT
  • ‘15/16 EU corn crop estimated at 60.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 66.9 MMT
  • ‘15/16 China grain imports estimated at 22.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 21.1 MMT and vs. ‘14/15 crop of 24.8 MMT

Indonesia Ag Min proposes 10% tax on soybean imports

Rabobank estimated Australia’s ‘15/16 wheat crop at 23-24 MMT

SovEcon estimated Russia’s 2015 grain crop at 101.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 99.0 MMT

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine exported 2.74 MMT of grain (mostly corn ) to China between Jan –June 2015, 7.8 times more than a year ago

Ukraine Ag min said Ukraine exported 330,000 tons of sunflower oil to China between Jan-June 2015 up 6.8% from a year ago

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine exported agriculture products worth $783.3 million to china Jan-June more than 2014’s total of $767.3 million

Ukraine ADAS said as of Aug 25th Ukraine harvested 55% of their grain crop , harvested 45% of their winter wheat crop vs. five year average of 60% , saying wheat yields are above average. Winter rapeseed harvest is 95% complete and spring rapeseed harvest is just starting

ACPB (French Growers Group) estimated France’s 2015 soft wheat crop at 40.0+ MMT (record)

ACPB estimated France’s 2015 soft wheat yield at 7.8 TPH (record)

Egypt bans rice exports as of Sept 1st

Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report came out today at +69 BCF expecting +60 BCF

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat sold 5,000
  • Corn bought 5,000
  • Beans bought 8,000
  • Meal sold 1,000
  • Bean oil bought 6,000

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Tomorrow is position day for September futures. Traders should be out long positions by the close or risk delivery , First Notice Day for Sept futures is Monday . Early delivery expectations for tomorrow night are

o   No beans

o   No meal

o   Bean oil – 1,000 -2,000

o   Wheat 50-300

o   Corn 500 -1,000

  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm  
  • Argentina farmers five day crop sales strike continues. Started Monday, ends tomorrow . The strike is not expected to impact Argentine grain supply , as ports have enough stock to keep shipments moving this week.
  • Annual Fed meeting in Jackson Hole Wyoming continues , ends Saturday

Option players:

Corn:

Man bot 2400 V 360 puts/bot 776 CZ

ABN sold 10,000 V 370 puts/sold 4400 CZ

JPM bot 1000 H 390 calls/sold 530 CH

FI bot 1000 H 390 straddles

ABN bot 900 V 390 calls-365 put strangles

FI sold 500 X 400 calls

RJO bot 600 Z 320 puts

Beans:

Man bot 5500 V 820 puts/bot 730 SX

RJO bot 1500 V 850 puts

RJO bot 750 X 840-800 put spreads/bot 105 SX

RJO bot 1000 V 900 calls

Wheat:

FI bot 855 V 515 calls/sold 855 V 490 puts/sold 633 WZ

Meal:

JPM bot 1000 Z 350 calls

RJO bot 400 Z 290 puts

Oil:

Bunge bot 1000 Z 30 calls covered

FI sold 600 Z 28 calls/bot 600 Z 26 puts/bot 450 BOZ

RJO bot 600 Z 30 puts

RJO bot 400 Z 29 puts

RJO sold 250 Z 27 straddles

ADM bot 250 X 27-26 put spreads/sold 250 X 29 calls

RJO sold 200 Z 26 puts

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

Corn:

V15 375 21 -21.50 25.25%

X15 375 31.25 / 32.25 26.75%

Z15 375 38 / 38.75 26.50%

H16 390 56.50 / 57.00 26.75%

K16 390 65.25 / 66 26.25%

Beans:

V15 880 47 / 48 24.00%

X15 880 62.50 / 63.50 22.50%

F16 880 83 / 84 20.80%

H16 880 97.50 /99 20.30%

K16 880 108 / 110 19.20%

N16 880 120 / 122 19.00%

Wheat:

V15 490 28.5 / 30.5 26.00%

Z15 490 48 / 49.50 26.00%

H16 500 69 / 72 25.50%

K16 510 80 / 84 25.50%

N16 510 93 / 96 25.00%

KC wheat:

V15 490 27 / 29 25.00%

Z15 490 47 / 50 25.50%

H16 500 68 / 71 25.00%

K16 510 81 / 84 25.00%

N16 520 92 / 95 25.00%

Minneapolis wheat:

Z15 510 43 / 48 23.00%

H16 530 65 / 69 22.75%

K16 540 74 / 80 22.75%

Meal:

V15 315 19.25 / 20.25 27.50%

X15 310 26 / 27 26.50%

Z15 320 31.50 / 33.50 26.00%

F16 310 34 / 35 24.00%

H16 310 37 / 39 23.50%

Bean oil:

V15  27 170 / 185 29.00%

X15 27 215 / 235 26.00%

Z15  27 260 / 265 25.25%

F16  27.50 280 / 305 23.50%

H16 27.50 330 / 360 22.50%

Crush quotes:

                Open                     Closes

Sep        118.5-120.5         119.5-121.5

Oct         118.0-119.5         116.0-117.5

Dec        114.5-115.0         114.0-114.5

Jan         107.5-108.5         107.0-108.0

Mch       102.0-103.0         102.5-103.0

May       94.0-94.5              94.0-94.5

Jly           93.0-93.5              93.0-93.5

Aug        94.0-96.5              93.5-96.0

Dec6    103.0-108.0           103..5-105.0

NovSep132.5-134.0         128.0-130.0

JanDec  107.5-109.0         109.0-110.0

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE