News From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 08/26/15

News:

Egypt GASC is in for wheat for October shipment

Thailand bought 300,000 tons Black Sea feed wheat for Jan-Aug shipment

Tunisia bought 75,000 optional origin soft wheat

Tunisia bought 125,000 tons of optional origin durum wheat

Tunisia canceled tender to buy feed barley

Midwest weather cool this week, warmer than normal the next two weeks

China soybean imports slow after yuan devaluation

  • Mills book 2.0 MMT of beans from Nov arrival vs. about 4.0 MMT a year ago
  • December bookings largely open, importers shy away
  • Crushing margins hit as meal prices in yuan terms have not risen

China Ministry of Commerce estimated August soybean inbound shipments at 5.71 MMT , estimated bean oil shipments at 195,941 tons, and estimated soymeal shipments at 554,928 tons

Oil World said heavy rainfall in Argentina since the start of August may cause “significant” damage to developing wheat crop.

Some analysts are estimating Argentina’s 2015 wheat crop at 8-9 MMT vs. 12.8 MMT in 2014.

Oil World said Argentina grain and oilseed area is forecasted at a six year low

Cepea (Sao Paulo research group) said Brazil will need to import wheat from US and Canada due to Argentina’s wheat production.

Cepea expects Argentina wheat planting to fall 24% in 2015

Argentina is Brazil’s biggest wheat supplier.

Argentina president elections on October 25th , Argentina’s leading opposition candidate Macri told farm groups yesterday he would lower soybean export taxes and lift quotas on wheat and corn shipments

Ukraine Ag Min estimated ‘15/16 grain exports at 37.0 MMT

Ukraine Ag Min estimated ‘15/16 grain crop at 60.46 MMT

Ukraine Ag Min estimated ‘15/16 domestic grain consumption at 24.0 MMT

Russia’s President Putin said Russia plans to increase wheat supplies to Egypt this year. Russia sold 4.0 MMT of wheat to Egypt in 2014, covering 40% Egypt’s needs

Kazakhstan exported 651,400 tons of grain between July 1-Aug 20 vs. 633,100 tons a year ago

Egypt Supplies Minister said Egypt has enough wheat supply until Feb 10th , said they currently have about 5.0 million in stocks

Hearing Indonesia covered through Dec on corn, meal, and DDGS.

Weekly DOE energy inventory report came out today at 930 am CST

  • Crude a draw of 5.45 MB , expecting a build of 2.0 MB
  • Gas a build of 1.66 MB , expecting a draw of 1.0 MB
  • Distillates a build of 1.44 MB , expecting a build of 1.02 MB

Weekly US ethanol plant production came out today at 930 am CST

  • Weekly ethanol stocks up 67,000 BBLS to 18.63
  • Weekly ethanol production down 13,000 BPD to 952,000 BPD

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat sold 4,000
  • Corn sold 6,000
  • Beans sold 9,000
  • Meal sold 3,000
  • Bean oil sold 6,000

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Annual Fed meeting in Jackson Hole Wyoming starts tomorrow , ends Saturday

o   Monthly FOMC two day policy meeting is Sept 16-17th

  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST . Expecting

o   Wheat – 225 – 400,000 tons

o   Corn – 500 – 900,000 tons

o   Beans –  600,000 – 1.05 million tons

o   Meal – 50 – 275,0000 tons

o   Bean oil –  0 – 30,000 tons

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST, expecting +60 BCF
  • Argentina farmers five day crop sales strike continues. Started Monday, ends Friday. The strike is not expected to impact Argentine grain supply , as ports have enough stock to keep shipments moving this week.

Option players:

  • Rand sold 4,000 Nov bean 960 puts at 89 ¾ and sold 3,400 Nov futures at 877   – broker saying this is a closing position.
  • FI bought 1,000 Nov bean 820 puts at 12 ¼ – 12 ¾
  • Drax sold 1,000 Nov bean 800 puts and sold 1,000 Nov 950 calls at 15 ¾
  • RJO bought 1,000 Oct corn 360 puts at 5 ½ -5 1/8
  • RJO bought 1,000 Nov bean 920-960 call spreads at 6 7/8 tied to Nov futures with a 14 delta
  • ADM bought 500 Nov bean 800 puts at 8 ½ -8 ¾
  • EDF Mann bought Nov 2016 bean 800 puts at 37 ½
  • EDF Mann bought 2,000 Oct corn 360 puts at 4 -4 1/8 tied to Dec futures at 378
  • ABN sold 5,000 Dec corn 400 calls at 10 ¾ tied to Dec futures at 376
  • ICAP bought 1,000 Oct corn 380 calls and sold 1,000 Dec corn 400 calls at 1 ½ credit
  • JP Morgan bought 1,000 Dec corn 440 calls at 3 5/8
  • EDF Mann bought 1,000 March corn 390 straddles at 57
  • Rand bought 1,500 Oct wheat 470 puts and sold 750 Oct wheat 750 puts at 2 credit
  • ICAP sold 500 Oct wheat 490 puts at 10 1/8 -10 ¼ tied to futures at 500
  • RJO sold 500 Nov meal 300 puts at 7.00
  • RJO bought 300 Dec meal 320 puts at 13.50
  • ABN bought 1,000 Dec bean oil 29 calls and sold 1,000 May bean oil 32 calls at even to 2 credit
  • RJO bought 300 Dec bean oil 27 / 28 call spreads at 39
  • FI sold 500 Oct bean oil 27.50 calls at 44

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

Corn:

V15 370 22 / 22.5 26.00%

X15 370 31.75 / 32.25 27.00%

Z15 370 38 / 38.50 26.50%

H16 380 55 / 56 26.20%

K16 390 64 / 66 26.00%

Beans:

V15 870 46.50 / 47.50 23.70%

X15 870 62.50 / 63 22.70%

F16 880 83 / 84 20.70%

H16 880 97 /98 20.30%

K16 880 106 / 108.5 19.00%

N16 880 119 / 120 18.70%

Wheat:

V15 490 18 / 20 25.50%

Z15 490 48 / 50 26.00%

H16 500 70 / 72 25.50%

K16 510 82 / 85 25.50%

N16 510 92 / 95 25.50%

KC wheat:

V15 490 27 / 29 24.75%

Z15 490 48 / 50 25.25%

H16 500 68 / 71 25.00%

K16 510 81 / 84 25.00%

N16 520 93 / 96 25.00%

Minneapolis wheat:

Z15 510 44 / 48 23.50%

H16 530 63 / 67 23.00%

K16 540 75 / 80 22.50%

Meal:

V15 320 19.50 / 20.50 27.00%

X15 320 26 / 27 26.50%

Z15 320 31 / 33 24.00%

F16 310 34 / 35 24.00%

H16 310 37 / 39 23.50%

Bean oil:

V15  26.50 165 / 180 28.00%

X15 26.50 210 / 235 25.50%

Z15  26.50 250 / 265 24.50%

F16  27 280 / 295 23.50%

H16 27 320 / 340 22.50%

Crush quotes:

                OPEN                    CLOSES

Sep        120.5-122.0         120.5-122.5

Oct         122.0-123.5         120.0-121.0

Dec        117.0-118.0         115.0-116.0

Jan         108.5-110             107.0-109.0

Mch       102.5-104.0         101.0-102.5

May       94.0-95.0              92.5-94.0

Jly           92.5-93.0              92.5-93.5

Aug        92.-5-95.0            93.0-96.0

Dec6      100.0-105.0         102.5-103.5

Novsep 137.0-139.0        134.5-136.5

JanDec  113.5-115.0         111.5-113.0

 

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE