News From The Floor 10/16/15

USDA announced 270,000 US beans sold to unknown for ‘15/16 shipment . Announcement came out early at 630 am CST.

Hearing Informa comes out today at 1030 am CST with ‘16/17 US acreage estimates . Informa September estimates were

  • US ‘16/17 corn acreage previously estimated at 90.7 MA  vs. ‘15/16 acreage of 88.381 MA
  • US ‘16/17 bean acreage previously estimated at 84.2 MA vs. ‘15/16 acreage of 83.205 MA
  • US ‘16/17 wheat acreage previously estimated at 54.7 MA vs. ‘15/16 acreage of 54.644 MA
  • US ‘16/17 winter wheat acreage previously estimated at 39.7 MA vs. ‘15/16 acreage of 39.461 MA

Overnight closes

  • SX down a ½ at 904 ¾
  • CZ down ¾ at 374 ¾
  • WZ up 3 at 505 ½
  • KC WZ up 4 ¼ at 500 ½
  • MWZ up 2 ½ at 526
  • SMZ down .30 at 313.70
  • BOZ unchanged at 2858

Overnight volume

  • SX 33,512
  • CZ 17,444
  • WZ 10,119
  • KC WZ 1,296
  • MWZ 404
  • SMZ 4,519
  • BOZ 6,062

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 3,202
  • Wheat 746
  • Beans 3,184
  • Meal 46
  • Bean oil 47

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product

P/C

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

420

56

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

450

50

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

21

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

29-Sep

6-Oct

to COT

7-Oct

8-Oct

9-Oct

12-Oct

13-Oct

14-Oct

15-Oct

Estimate

Corn

-2411

52065

54476

-5000

-6000

-11000

-6000

7000

-8000

-5000

18065

Wheat

-68560

-54371

14189

-5000

-4000

-3000

0

6000

-5000

-3000

-68371

Soybeans

-36889

-29940

6949

4000

-8000

5000

0

17000

-4000

-6000

-21940

Soymeal

29711

28771

-940

2000

-3000

3000

2000

8000

-2000

-2000

36771

Soyoil

-16467

853

17320

-2000

-2000

-2000

-3000

6000

0

-2000

-4147

News

Dec Euro at 1.1377 down .0017

USD – BRL at 3.8339 up .0329

Nikkei closes up 1.08% , down .8% on week

Hang Seng closes up .8%, up 2.7% on week

Shanghai Index closes up 1.6% , up 6.5% on week , biggest weekly performance since early June

Chinese government to issue 3rd quarter GDP on Sunday night/Monday morning.

  • Many economists expect data to show China’s 3rd quarter GDP dipped below 7% , the slowest rate since the global financial crisis.
  • Economists at ANZ said China’s third quarter GDP growth is likely to have slowed to 6.4%.

China grain markets closes – soybeans down 34, corn unchanged, meal down 6, palm oil down 28, and bean oil down 26

Malaysian palm oil market closes down 15

Malaysia to keep November palm oil export tax at 0% for the seventh straight month.

Good soybean demand from China continues.

South Korea KOCOPIA bought 55,000 tons of South American corn for Feb shipment

South Korea flour mills seek 161,050 tons of US and Australian wheat for Feb-May shipment.  

Philippines, Morocco, Cuba, and Colombia are shopping for meal.  

Based on a Reuters survey Indonesia’s Sept palm oil output estimated at 3.1 MMT vs. 3.198 MMT in August.

Based on a Reuters survey Indonesia’s Sept palm oil exports estimated at 2.235 MMT vs. 1.885 MMT in August.

China auctioned a total of 5.4 MMT of corn from reserves yesterday and today.

Weekly US export sales report came out this morning

  • Wheat – ‘15/16 460,400 tons (expecting 250-450,000 tons)
  • Corn – ‘15/16 598,400 tons ‘16/17 60,000 tons (expecting 450-650,000 tons)
  • Beans – ‘15/16 1,476,800 tons (expecting 1.0-1.5 million tons)
  • Meal – ‘15/16 255,800 tons (expecting 175-375,000 tons)
  • Bean oil- ‘15/16 53,200 tons (expecting 0-30,000 tons)

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 460,400 metric tons for delivery in marketing year 2015/2016 were up 60 percent from the previous week and 80 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for unknown destinations (113,300 MT), Yemen (58,200 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (57,200 MT), Nigeria (41,000 MT), and South Korea (38,400 MT, including decreases of 28,800 MT).  Exports of 374,700 MT were down 34 percent from the previous week and 35 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were the Philippines (112,700 MT), Japan (93,500 MT), Yemen (58,200 MT), Mexico (38,200 MT), and Chile (29,700 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 598,400 MT for 2015/2016 were up 15 percent from the previous week.  Increases reported for Mexico (183,900 MT, including 23,000 MT switched from unknown destinations),  Colombia (117,000 MT, including 22,800 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (97,900 MT, including 47,900 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 5,700 MT), Guatemala (82,200 MT, including 17,200 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Peru (37,500 MT), were partially offset by reductions for unknown destinations (41,700 MT) and the French West Indies (6,900 MT).  Net sales of 60,000 MT for 2016/2017 were reported for Mexico.  Exports of 606,900 MT were up 24 percent from the previous week.  The primary destinations were Japan (220,300 MT), Mexico (184,700 MT), Colombia (48,100 MT), Venezuela (30,000 MT), and Canada (23,900 MT)
  • Beans – Net sales of 1,476,800 MT for 2015/2016, up 15 percent from the previous week, were primarily for China (1,143,400 MT, including 557,500 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 132,100 MT), Russia (121,000 MT, including 52,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (81,600 MT, including 49,500 switched from unknown destinations), the Netherlands (75,700 MT, including 70,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Thailand (74,100 MT).  Net sales reductions were reported for unknown destinations (205,400 MT).  Exports of 1,627,600 MT were up 74 percent from the previous week.  The primary destinations were China (1,327,700 MT), Japan (96,800 MT), the Netherlands (75,700 MT), Mexico (68,700 MT), and Russia (33,000 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 225,800 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for unknown destinations (68,200 MT), Poland (40,000 MT), Venezuela (30,000 MT, switched from Panama), Mexico (26,700 MT), and Guatemala (15,200 MT, including 9,200 MT switched from unknown destinations).  Net sales reductions were reported for Panama (21,900 MT), Ireland (6,000 MT), and French West Indies (3,000 MT).  Net sales of 700 MT for 2016/2017 were reported for Canada.  Exports of 139,700 MT were primarily to Mexico (33,900 MT), Venezuela (30,000 MT), Canada (20,700 MT), Guatemala (15,200 MT), and Honduras (11,700 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 53,200 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for unknown destinations (20,000 MT), Morocco (18,000 MT), Mexico (12,500 MT), Nicaragua (1,800 MT), and the Dominican Republic (500 MT).  Exports of 16,200 MT were primarily to Venezuela (10,000 MT), Mexico (4,900 MT), Trinidad (800 MT), and Canada (400 MT). 

Moving averages:

  • Nov bean 50 day 891 ½       
  • Nov bean 100 day 926 ½  
  • Dec corn 20 day 385 ½  
  • Dec corn 50 day 380 ½     
  • Dec corn 100 day 389   
  • Dec wheat 20 day 508 ¾  
  • Dec wheat 50 day 499 ¾  
  • Dec wheat 100 day 520 ¼    
  • Dec KC wheat 20 day 499 ½    
  • Dec KC wheat 50 day 494 ¾  
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 20 day 526 ½    
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 50 day 522
  • Dec meal 20 day 307.20
  • Dec meal 50 day 311.80
  • Dec meal 100 day 316.70
  • Dec meal 200 day 315.70
  • Dec bean oil 20 day 2791
  • Dec bean oil 50 day 2789

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon:

  • Wheat = 783

o   44 wheat receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon , out of Bunge Hickman, KY  

  • Oats = 13
  • Corn = 642
  • Ethanol = 6
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 69
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 78
  • Rice = 2,616
  • KC wheat = 223
  • Minneapolis wheat =  674

Open interest as of yesterday’s close:

  • Total corn – 1,300,926 open, up 7,121
  • Total soybeans – 746,367 open, up 6,552
  • Total soymeal – 412,327 open, up 848
  • Total bean oil – 420,335 open, up 2,989
  • Total wheat – 370,753 open, up 284
  • Total KC wheat – 184,099 open, down 665

Upcoming reports/events:  

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST.
  • Chinese government to issue 3rd quarter GDP on Sunday night/ Monday morning

o   Economists at ANZ said China’s third quarter GDP growth is likely to have slowed to 6.4%.

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST

o   First US winter wheat conditions to be issued on Monday

  • Last trading day for November options is Friday October 23rd. Grain options expire at 115 pm CST.
  • Argentina president elections on October 25th

o   Peronist presidential candidate Scioli , who is leading in the polls, may favor a Argentina export tax cut of 5%, Argentina presidential elections are on October 25th.

o   Argentina’s leading opposition candidate Macri told farm groups yesterday he would lower soybean export taxes and lift quotas on wheat and corn shipments

  • FOMC two day policy meeting is Tuesday and Wednesday October 27-28.
  • Fed announcement Wednesday October 28th at 1 pm CST.
  • ADM to release third quarter financial results on Tuesday November 3rd
  • US EPA reaffirms plan to finalize biofuels plan by the end of November
  • ABARES come out on Tuesday December 1st with their Australian crop estimate updates
  • OPEC to meet in early December

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE