News From Grain Floor 04/13/15

Weather Highlights

  • Rain relief and rain in the 11-15 day forecast should notably ease dryness concerns in all HRW areas
  • In the delta and southeast corn belt – frequent episodes of rain this week will disrupt and delay corn planting
  • Scattered rains in Argentina to slow soybeans and corn harvesting this week

Overnight closes:

  • SK up 1 ¼ at 952 ¾
  • CK down 2 at 375
  • WK down 14 ¾ at 511 ¾
  • KC WK down 17 ½ at 541 ¼
  • MWK down 12 ½ at 568 ½
  • SMK up .10 at 309.30
  • BOK up 8 at 3117

Overnight volume:

  • SK 13,273
  • CK 17,183
  • WK 12,732
  • KC WK 1,808
  • MWK 185
  • SMK 7,096
  • BOK 9,737

Overnight Option Volume

  • Corn 1,185
  • Beans 890
  • Meal 249
  • Bean oil 82
  • Wheat 1,747

Active Strikes in Overnight Trade

  • WN 500 puts – traded 501
  • WN 490 puts – traded 180
  • CK 380 calls – traded 293
  • CN 400 calls – traded 231
  • SK 960 calls – traded 208

Significant OI changes from previous session

  • SK 950 C increased 1,141 (total 5,454)
  • SK 970 C increased 1,359 (total 6,595)
  • SK 1060 C decreased 2,978 (total 11,685)
  • SK 880 P decreased 4,009 (total 6,329)
  • SK 900 P decreased 2,837 (total 20,602)
  • SK 920 P increased 1,676 (total 10,332)
  • SK 940 P increased 2,325 (total 17,583)
  • CZ 400 C increased 1,196 (total 17,414)
  • BOM 30 P increased 1,050 (total 1,201)
  • WN 560 C increased 1,750 (total 7,157)

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

  • SK 1080 P 20

Funds

COT

COT

COT

Current

COT Record

COT Record

31-Mar

7-Apr

to COT

8-Apr

9-Apr

10-Apr

Estimate

Long

Short

Corn

-28767

-39364

-10597

-7000

-2000

-3000

-51364

9/28/2010

372756

-240854

10/29/2013

Wheat

-83136

-82,132

1004

-1000

-4000

5000

-82,132

10/24/2006

30146

-103996

12/10/2013

Soybeans

-43338

-48424

-5086

1000

-9000

-2000

-58424

5/1/2012

224822

-86227

9/23/2014

Soymeal

9711

-2838

-12549

1000

-4000

-2000

-7838

11/11/2014

70115

-4400

7/8/2014

Soyoil

-8420

-840

7580

-1000

-1000

2000

-840

4/10/2007

81193

-80562

1/21/2014

News:

Dollar and crude oil higher. Gold, silver, and stock market lower.

Nikkei down .01%

Hang Seng up 2.7% (seven year high)

Shanghai index up 2.2%

China’s March trade data report came out last night: – customs data

  • March trade surplus $3.08 billion expecting surplus of $43.8 billion
  • March exports -15.0% on year, expecting +10.0%
  • March imports -12.7% on year, expecting -12.0%

China grain market closings = beans up 22, corn up 12, meal down 7, palm oil up 20, and bean oil up 58

Malaysian palm up 3

Iraq seeks 50,000 tons of Australian, US, Canadian, and or Russian wheat.

CIMB expects Malaysian palm oil output to rise to 1.5 MMT in April vs. 1.49 MMT in March.

China imported 4.49 MMT of beans in March up 5.4% from February- customs data

China imported 15.63 MMT of beans in the first quarter of 2015 up 1.9% from a year ago – customs data

China’s Jan-March average soybean import price down 18.6% – customs data

China imported 360,000 tons of edible oils in March down 35% from a year ago – customs data

China imported 1.05 MMT of edible oils in the first quarter of 2015 down 46% from a year ago – customs data

AgRural said on Friday Brazilian bean harvest is 84% complete vs. 77% a week ago and unchanged from a year ago.

AgRural estimated Brazilian bean crop at 93.8 MMT (record) unchanged from previous estimate

Safras e Mercado said Friday Brazilian bean harvest is 83% complete vs. 86% a year ago and vs. 81% average

Safras e Mercado said Friday Brazilian first corn crop is 61.4% harvested vs. 73.7% a year ago

  • Mato Grosso first corn crop is 65% harvested vs. 60% a year ago

CIARA-CEC said Argentina farmers exported $507 million of grains and oilseeds last week up 33% from a week ago

CIARA-CEC said Argentina farmers exported $3.9 billion of grains and oilseeds year to date.

Argentina expected to release 2-3 MMT of corn export licenses next week.

Egypt will start buying up to 3.7 MMT of local wheat tomorrow.

Ukrainian analyst estimated 2015 wheat crop at 20.0 MMT vs. 24.1 MMT in 2014

Today is the fourth day of the Goldman Sachs / UBS roll. They are rolling long May positions into July. Roll ends tomorrow.

Receipt Registrations as of Friday afternoon – no changes

  • Wheat = 0
  • Oats = 0
  • Corn =59
  • Ethanol =173
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 1
  • Bean oil = 3,335
  • Soy meal = 0
  • Rice = 1,307
  • KC wheat = 295
  • Minneapolis wheat =  357

Moving averages

  • SK 20 day 970 ¼
  • CK 20 day 383
  • CK 50 day 387 ¼
  • CK 100 day 394 ½
  • CK 200 day 390
  • WK 20 day 520
  • WK 50 day 513 ½
  • KC WK 20 day 560 ¼
  • KC WK 50 day 550 ½
  • MWK 20 day 580 ½
  • MWK 50 day 574
  • BOK 20 day 3082
  • BOK 50 day 3135
  • BOK 100 day 3199

Open interest as of Friday’s close:

  • Total corn 1,376,441 open, down 9,892
  • Total beans 788,050 open, up 10,126
  • Total meal 342,854 open, down 3,104
  • Total bean oil 384,644 open, up 4,343
  • Total wheat 451,375 open, down 2,528
  • Total KC wheat 148,038 open, down 478

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST. Expecting:
    • Spring wheat planting – 8-10% complete
    • Corn planting – 4-5% complete
    • Winter wheat good to excellent conditions down 2-3% from a week ago
    • China to auction 830,000 tons of wheat from reserves tomorrow.
    • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
    • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysian April 1-15th palm oil exports on Wednesday
    • NOPA March crush report comes out on Wednesday at 11 am CST . Based on a Reuters survey expecting :
      • Crush – average estimate is 155.261 MB , range of estimates are 150.50-159.50 MB . In February crush was 146.970 MB and in March 2014 crush was 153.840 MB
      • Bean oil stocks – average estimate is 1.383 billion lbs. , range of estimates are 1.275-1.463 billion lbs. In February bean oil stocks were 1.322 B lbs. and in March 2014 bean oil stocks were 2.023 B lbs.
      • Meal exports – no estimate is given for meal exports. In February meal exports were 791,532 tons and in March 2014 meal exports were 798,883 tons
      • China to auction 50,000 tons of rapeseed oil from reserves on Thursday
      • China to auction 331,500 tons of corn from reserves on Thursday
      • Stats Canada comes out with Canadian production estimates on Thursday April 23rd
      • May options expire Friday April 24th at 115 pm CST.
      • US EPA said on Friday April 10th they will propose biofuel use targets for 2015 by June 1st and will re-propose biofuel targets for 2014 that reflect volumes of renewable fuel actually used in 2014.
      • USDA to restart monthly Census crush reports in July 2015.

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE