From The Floor- Yesterdays Afternoon Recap 02/02/15

News:

January final manufacturing PMIs (came out over the weekend)

  • Eurozone = 51.0 (6 month high), as expected and vs. Dec final of 50.6
  • China’s HSBC final = 49.7 expecting 49.8 and vs. December final of 49.6
  • Japan = 52.2 expecting 52.1 and vs. December final of 52.0
  • UK = 53.0 expecting 52.6 and vs. 52.7 in December
  • Greece = 48.3 vs. 49.4 in December
  • Germany = 50.9 expecting 51.0 and vs. December final of 51.2
  • Italy = 49.9 vs. December final of 48.4

 

There was a 10,000 lot buy stop triggered in March corn right before 930 am CST this morning.

 

Egypt GASC is in for wheat for March shipment.

 

Weekly US export inspections report came out today at 10 am CST

  • Wheat = 394,029 tons, expecting 250,000 -400,000 tons
  • Corn = 661,675 tons, expecting 750,000 -900,000 tons
  • Beans = 1,697,852 tons expecting 1.15-1.3 million tons

 

USDA announced this morning at 8 am CST – 132,600 tons of US corn sold to Mexico , 121,500 tons for ‘14/15 shipment and 11,050 tons for ‘15/16 shipment.

 

Saudi Arabia bought 690,000 tons of hard wheat from US , Europe, and Australia for April-May shipment

 

On Friday there was a report on Reuters that read “Pakistan bought 60,000 tons of US origin bean oil” –Reuters put out a correction today saying Pakistan bought 60,000 tons of optional origin soybeans not bean oil for April – May shipment.

 

The UN bought 30,000 tons of EU origin wheat for Djibouti for Feb-March shipment

 

The UN bought 9,500 tons of Indian origin sorghum for Djibouti for March shipment

 

Bangladesh seeks 100,000 tons of optional origin wheat for Feb-April shipment.

 

Lebanon canceled tender to buy 30,000 tons of optional origin wheat due to high prices

 

Vietnam to sell 240,000 tons of rice to Malaysia for April –December shipment.

 

SGS estimated Malaysia’s January palm oil exports at 1,109,188 tons down 14.6% from December.

 

Allendale estimated 2015 US corn area at 88.35 MA (five year low)

 

Allendale said Dec corn could drop to $3.50 , but may also trade up to $4.50 with a summer weather rally.

 

Allendale estimated 2015 US bean area at a record of 87.42 MA

 

Allendale expects Nov beans to fall close to $8.

 

AgRural said as of Friday Brazilian farmers have sold 33% of their ‘14/15 bean crop vs. 31% a month ago and vs. 49% a year ago

 

AgRural said as of Friday Brazil has harvested 6% of their ‘14/15 bean crop vs. 3% a week ago and unchanged from a year ago

 

Brazil’s Trade Ministry – January exports

  • Beans = 85,300 tons vs. 138,600 tons in December and vs. 30,600 tons in January 2014
  • Meal = 910,000 tons vs. 870,000 tons in December and vs. 900,000 tons in January 2014
  • Bean oil = 89,700 tons vs. 65,132 tons in December and vs. 65,800 tons in January 2014
  • Corn = 3,195,400 tons vs. 3,405,200 tons in December and vs. 2,925,600 tons in January 2014

 

USDA attaché in Brazil estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 corn crop at 76.0 MMT

 

USDA attaché in Argentina said Argentina’s bean planting is virtually complete.

 

USDA attaché in Argentina estimated Argentina’s bean planting area at 20.8 MH

 

USDA attaché in Argentina estimated Argentina’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 57.0 MMT

 

Brazil to raise ethanol blend in gasoline to 27% on February 15th vs. 25% currently.

 

Oil World estimated Brazil’s January – November 2014 biodiesel production at 2.7 MMT vs. 2.4 MMT a year ago.

  • Including 2.0 MMT of bean oil vs. 1.7 MMT a year ago

 

Oil World estimated Argentina’s 2014 biodiesel exports at 1.7 MMT vs. 1.1 MMT in 2013

 

Oil World estimated Colombia’s 2015 palm oil production at 1.2 MMT vs. 1.1 MMT in 2014

 

Oil World estimated Colombia’s 2015 palm oil exports at 300,000 tons vs. 250,000 tons in 2014

 

Ukraine exported 21.543 MMT of grain between July 1st –Jan 30th up 3% from a year ago

 

Russia exported 22.7 MMT of grain between July 1st – Jan 28th up 31% from a year ago

 

Russia’s grain export pace is expected to tail off as grain export taxes kick in effective Feb 1.

 

Russia’s Jan grain exports were 1.7 million tons vs. government expectations of 1.0 MMT as the grain industry raced to beat the tax deadline.

 

Russia’s Ag Min still estimates Russia’s ‘14/15 grain exports at 30.0 MMT despite the new export taxes

 

BAFA said Germany’s January –November 2014 biodiesel use = 17.3 MMT vs. 17.0 MMT a year ago

 

Today was the start of a new month.

 

March corn closed below the 100 day moving average of 378 ¼ . March corn settled at 369 ¾ and the high of the day in March corn was 378 ½.

 

Monthly state by state January wheat progress reports came out this afternoon, I will have the rest of the states in tomorrow morning’s email , but here is the link if you want to look at it tonight . http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/index.asp

  • Kansas winter wheat ratings
    • 46% good to excellent vs. 49% in December
    • 41% fair vs. 42% in December
    • 13% poor to very poor vs. 9% in December
    • Oklahoma winter wheat ratings
      • 41% good to excellent vs. 54% in December
      • 46% fair vs. 34% in December
      • 13% poor to very poor vs. 12% in December

 

Today was the last day of the Rogers roll. On the close:

  • 4,554 March/May corn spreads traded at -8 ¼ to -8
  • 3,280 March/May wheat spreads traded at – 4 ¾ to -4 ¼
  • 748 March/May KC wheat spreads traded at -2 to -1 ½
  • 3,704 March/May bean spreads traded at -7 to -6 ½
  • 902 March/May meal spreads traded at 6.20 to 6.40
  • 2,084 March/May bean oil spreads traded at -24 and -23

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat sold 4K
  • Corn bought 2K
  • Beans sold 3K
  • Meal sold 1K
  • Bean oil bought 2K

 

Open outcry option activity: – quiet on the trading floor today.

  • FI sold 500 April bean 950 calls at 41 ½ -42 ¼
  • Tenco sold 500 Nov bean 860 puts at 24
  • Tenco sold 500 July bean 880 puts at 15
  • Jefferies bought 1,100 March corn 360 straddles at 17 ¼ and sold 462 March corn futures at 370
  • Tenco bought 500 March corn 360 puts at 2 ¾
  • FC Stone sold 500 March corn 360 puts at 2 5/8 and sold 100 March corn futures at 375 ½
  • RJO sold 500 Dec corn 380 puts at 24
  • ADM bought 500 March wheat 490 puts at 9 ¾ -10
  • JP Morgan bought 700 May wheat 600 calls at 13 ½
  • Drax bought 700 March wheat 540 puts at 44 tied to futures at 498
  • UBS bought 500 Dec KC wheat 600-650 call spreads at 13 ½
  • EDF Mann bought 500 July KC wheat 550-600 call spreads at 15 ¼
  • TJM bought 500 May meal 340 calls and sold 500 May meal 300 puts at 2.25-3.00 debit.
  • ABN bought 300 May meal 340 straddles at 33.50
  • Rosenthal sold 800 April bean oil 30 puts at 70
  • Tenco bought 500 March bean oil 2950 puts at 23-24

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Malaysian markets were closed today and are closed again tomorrow for holiday. Trading resumes on Wednesday.
  • China to auction 1.13 MMT of wheat from reserves Tuesday – Thursday
  • China to auction 11,400 tons of rapeseed oil from reserves this week
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Stats Canada December 31st, 2014 stocks report comes out on Wednesday at 730 am CST. Expecting
    • All wheat stocks average estimate 25.0 MMT vs. 28.68 MMT in 2013
    • Durum average estimate 4.2 MMT vs. 5.239 MMT in 2013
    • Canola average estimate 10.7 MMT vs. 12.421 MMT in 2013
    • Oats average estimate 2.5 MMT vs. 2.848 MMT in 2013
    • Barley average estimate 4.9 MMT vs. 6.75 MMT in 2013
    • January US trade balance report comes out on Thursday at 730 am CST
    • USDA supply and demand and crop production report comes out Tuesday Feb 10 at 11 am CST
    • CONAB comes out Thursday Feb 12thwith their Brazilian crop estimate updates. Previous estimates were
      • ‘14/15 Brazilian bean crop estimated at 95.9 MMT
      • ‘14/15 Brazilian bean exports estimated at 49.6 MMT
      • ‘14/15 Brazilian corn crop estimated at 79.1 MMT
      • Annual USDA Outlook Forum is Thursday – Friday February 19th and 20th
      • Last trading day for March options is Friday February 20th. Options expire at 115 pm CST
      • Position day for March futures is Thursday February 26th . Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery.
      • First notice day for March futures is Friday February 27th.

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn:

H vol 21 ½ 370 str 14 ½ -15

J vol 21 380 str 24-24 ½

K vol 22 380 str 31 ½-32

N vol 24 390 str 47-47 ½

U vol 26 ¼ 390 str 60 ½-61

Z vol 24 ½ 400 str 69 ½-70

 

Beans:

H vol 19 960 str 32 ½-33 ½

J vol 18 5/8 970 str 54 ½-56

K vol 19 ¼ 970 str 70-71 ½

N vol 19 ¾ 980 str 97-98 ½

X vol 19 940 str 121 ½-123

 

Wheat:

H vol 26 ¾ 490 str 23-26

J vol 25 ¼ 500 str 37-40

K vol 25 ¼ 500 str 46-49

N vol 25 ¾ 500 str 63-65

U vol 25 ¾ 510 str 75-79

Z vol 24 ½ 520 str 88-93

 

KC wheat:

H vol 25 530 str 23-25

J vol 23 ½ 540 str 38-40

K vol 23 ¼ 540 str 47-49

N vol 24 540 str 64-66

U vol 24 550 str 77-79

Z vol 23 570 str 91-94

 

Minneapolis wheat:

H vol 21 ½ 550 str 20-24

K vol 20 ½ 560 str 40-45

N vol 22 ½ 570 str 62-67

U vol 22 ¾ 570 str 72-78

Z vol 22 580 str 85-91

 

Meal:

H vol 25 330 str 14-15

J vol 24.5 320 str 24-26

K vol 24.25 320 str 29-30.5

N vol 23.25 320 str 36-38

Q vol 22.5 320 str 38-41

U vol 21.5 320 str 40-43

Z vol 20 310 str 43.5-45.5

 

Bean oil:

H vol 21 3050 str 110-125

J vol 20.5 3050 str 185-200

K vol 20.5 3050 str 225-250

N vol 20 31 str 305-325

Q vol 20 31 str 325-350

U vol 19.75 31 str 340-380

Z vol 19.75 3050 str 410-450

 

Crush quotes:

 

Open                     Closes

March    97-97.5                 94.5-95.5

May       79-79.5                 78-78.5

July        72-72.5                 69-71.0

Aug        70.5-72.5              68-70.0

Sep         80-84.0                  78-82.0

Oct         81-84.0                 79-82.0

Dec        79.5-81.0              77-79.0

Jan         74-76.0                  74-76.0

 

Crush and oil share players:

  • XFA bought 110 March crush at 93.25
  • No oil share pit players today

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE