From The Floor- An Afternoon Recap 3/02/15

News:

Weekly US export inspections report , came out at 10 am CST.

  • Wheat – 450,093 tons, expecting 325 -475,000 tons
  • Corn – 1,279,816 tons, expecting 750 -900,000 tons
  • Beans – 635,164 tons, expecting 750 -950,000 tons

Hearing as of today in Brazil there were 17 partial roadblocks reported vs. 12 reported overnight and vs. 52 reported on Saturday.

Ciara-CEC said Argentina farmers sold $209 million grains and oilseeds last week, lowest year on year in 8 years, and up 16% from the week prior.

Argentina will keep an eye on how much soy is being hoarded on farms throughout the county by requiring the sales of silo-bags be reported to tax authorities, according to a government resolution announced today – Reuters

AgRural said Brazil has sold 40% of their ‘14/15 bean crop vs. 33% at the end of January vs. 57% a year ago

AgRural said Brazil has harvested 29% of their ‘14/15 bean crop vs. 20% a week ago vs. 39% a year ago and vs. 33% average

AgRural estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 91.9 MMT (record)

Brazil Trade Ministry – Brazilian February exports

  • Soybeans = 870,000 tons vs. 90,000 tons in January and vs. 2.79 MMT in Feb 2014
  • Soymeal = 690,000 tons vs. 910,000 tons in January and vs. 510,000 tons in Feb 2014
  • Bean oil = 98,400 tons vs. 89,729 tons in January and vs. 37,500 in Feb 2014
  • Corn = 1,104,800 tons vs. 3,195,400 tons in January and vs. 1,063,100 tons in Feb 2014
  • Ethanol = 70.80 million liters vs. 153.80 million liters in January and vs. 65.70 M liters in Feb 2014

UkrAgroConsult said 2015 Ukraine barley crop could fall to 7.0 MMT vs. 9.0 MMT in 2014

USDA attaché in India estimated India’s 2015 wheat crop at 94.0 MMT vs. 2014 crop of 95.9 MMT

USDA attaché in India estimated 2015 wheat exports at 2.0 MMT vs. 3.5 MMT in 2014

USDA attaché in India estimated 2015 India corn crop at 23.5 MMT vs. 22.5 MMT in 2014

USDA attaché in India estimated 2015 corn exports at 2.0 MMT unchanged from 2014

May beans closed above the 50 day moving average of 1012 ½ and closed below the 100 day moving average of 1018 ½ . May beans settled at 1013 ¾

May corn closed below the 20 day moving average of 391 ½ and below the 100 day  moving average of 394 ½. May corn settled at 388

May wheat closed below the 20 day moving average of 516 ¼. May wheat settled at 500.

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat sold 6,000
  • Corn sold 7,000
  • Beans sold 8,000
  • Meal sold 4,000
  • Bean oil sold 1,00

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Monthly US state crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST.
    • Weekly USDA US crop progress reports resume Monday April 6th, reports come out every Monday at 3 pm CST
    • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
    • Price Outlook Conference in Kuala Lumpur this week
    • Sunday March 8th is US daylight savings time, clocks move up one hour.

Open outcry option players:

  • TJM bought 1,000 April bean 990-1000 put spreads at 3
  • Rosenthal bought 600 May bean 1010 puts and sold 1,200 May bean 970 puts at ¾ debit
  • ABN bought 700 May bean 980 puts and sold 1,800 May bean 920 puts at 5-5 ½ debit
  • ABN bought 500 April bean 960 puts and sold 1,000 April bean 920 puts at 15 1/8 debit
  • ABN bought 250 Nov bean 960 puts and sold 625 Dec corn 370 puts at 23 ½ debit
  • ICAP sold 1,000 May corn 390 straddles at 28 ½
  • ICAP bought 1,000 July corn 420 calls at 16 3/8
  • JP Morgan bought 1,000 Dec corn 310 puts at 2 ½ and bought 50 Dec corn futures at 418
  • Macquarie bought 1,000 Dec corn 500 call and sold 1,000 Dec corn 360 put combos at 1 ½ debit
  • ICAP bought 1,500 July wheat 520 calls at 25 ¼ -25 ½ and sold 660 July futures at 508
  • ICAP bought 800 Sept wheat 540 calls at 29 and sold 328 Sept futures at 516
  • ICAP bought 800 May wheat 500 puts at 15 ¼ -16
  • FI bought 500 May wheat 475 puts and sold 500 April wheat 490 puts at 1 1/8 , tied to futures at 507 ½
  • New Edge bought 300 April KC wheat 590 calls at 2 ¾
  • Rosenthal sold 300 April meal 340 puts at 11.50
  • FI bought 300 May meal 320 straddles and sold 300 May meal 300 straddles at 10.75 credit
  • JP Morgan bought 300 May meal 340 calls and sold 600 May meal 360 calls at 1.40 debit
  • ABN bought 300 July meal 310 puts at 10.00
  • FI bought 1,000 May bean oil 31-33 put spreads and sold 1,000 May bean oil 35 calls at 3 debit
  • JP Morgan bought 1,000 May bean oil 29 puts at 9 and bought 60 May bean oil futures at 3320
  • RJO sold 800 May bean oil 30 puts at 15 and bought 96 May bean oil futures at 3310

Closing vols and ATM straddles

Corn:

J vol 18 390 str 14 ¾-15 ¼

K vol 23 ¾ 390 str 28-28 ½

M vol 24 ½ 400 str 36-36 ¾

N vol 26 ¼ 400 str 47-47 ½

U vol 28 ½ 410 str 62-62 ½

Z vol 26 420 str 72-72 ½

Beans:

J vol 19 ¾ 1010 str 41 ½ -43

K vol 22 1010 str 67-68

N vol 22 1020 str 100-101

X vol 21 str 980 str 129 ½-130 ½

Wheat:

J vol 25 ½ 500 str 26-27

K vol 26 500 str 40-42

N vol 26 3/8 500 str 59-61

U vol 26 ½ 510 str 75-78

Z vol 25 530 str 90-93

KC wheat:

J vol 23 ¼ 530 str 26-28

K vol 25 530 str 40-42

N vol 25 530 str 59-61

U vol 24 ¼ 550 str 75-79

Z vol 23 ½ 560 str 88-90

Minneapolis wheat:

K vol 21 ¼ 560 str 34-39

N vol 22 ½ 560 str 53-58

U vol 23 ½ 570 str 69-75

Z vol 22 ½ 580 str 82-88

Crush quotes:

OPEN             CLOSE

MCH           1.06-1.10        1.03-1.06

MAY           83-84                81-81.5

JLY              74-75                72-74

AUG           72.5-74.5        71-73

SEP             85-87.5             83-87

OCT            85-86                83.5-85

DEC            84.5-85             83-83.5

JAN            82-84                 81-82.5

MCH6        80-83                 80-82

MAY6        75-80                 76.5-80

Crush and oil share players:

  • No crush pit players today
  • JP Morgan sold May oil share 249 oil/ 146 meal at 33.00%
  • Mizuho sold July oil share 32 oil / 20 meal at 32.98%

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE