From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 2/24/15

News:

 

Egypt GASC bought 290,000 tons of US wheat for April shipment.

 

Safras e Mercado said this morning that they expected the strike to end by the end of the week.

 

Protesters block Brazil’s Port of Santos

Brazilian lawsuit to end truckers strikes  – AGU triggers Justice in RS and 6 more states against stoppage of truck. Authority wants to ensure the right to come and go of people and fine of $ 100,000 for each hour the protesters refuse to release the traffic

https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=pt&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fzh.clicrbs.com.br%2Frs%2Fnoticias%2Ftransito%2Fnoticia%2F2015%2F02%2Fagu-aciona-justica-no-rs-e-mais-6-estados-contra-paralisacao-de-caminhoneiros-4705996.html&sandbox=1

 

Cordonnier’s weekly crop estimates

  • ‘14/15 Brazilian bean crop estimated at 93.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • ‘14/15 Brazilian corn crop estimated at 74.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • ‘14/15 Argentina bean crop estimated at 57.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • ‘14/15 Argentina corn crop estimated at 23.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

UkrAgroConsult said as of Feb 20th 41% of Ukraine’s winter cereals crop was in good condition vs. 59% a year ago and said 18% of the crop is in poor condition vs. 7% a year ago.

 

Fed Chairman Yellen testified to Senate Banking Committee this morning. Headlines from Rueters and Bloomberg

  • Dollar Gains as Treasuries Fall Before Yellen; Europe Bonds Rise
  • U.S. Stocks Little Changed Near Records Before Yellen Testimony
  • Dollar Gains as Fed’s Yellen May Signal Higher Interest Rates
  • Yellen Signals Fed to Be Flexible on Rates After Guidance Change
  • Yellen says improving jobs and fading oil impact to lift prices
  • Yellen says fed expects inflation to gradually rise to 2%
  • Yellen says inflation to fall further in near term
  • Yellen says risks facing foreign outlook not just on downside
  • Yellen says China could slow more and Euro area faces risks
  • Yellen says foreign developents could pose risks to US
  • Yellen: lower oil prices significant net plus for US economy
  • Yellen says GDP strong enough to gradually lower jobless rate
  • Yellen: guidance change to mean liftoff possible at any meeting
  • Yellen: balance sheet reduction mainly via halting reinvestment
  • Yellen: new guidance not necessarily liftoff in couple meetings
  • Yellen says fed will reduce balance sheet gradually
  • Yellen: Fed will change forward guidance before raising rates
  • Yellen: Fed will raise wheat “reasonably confident” on inflation

 

Moving averages

  • May beans closed above the 50 day moving average of 1014 ¼ and above the 100 day moving average of 1015 ¼ . May beans settled at 1018 ¾
  • May corn closed below the 20 day moving average of 390 ½ and below the 100 day moving average of 392 ½ . May corn settled at 385 ½
  • May Minneapolis wheat closed below the 20 day moving average of 573 ½ . May Minneapolis wheat settled at 569
  • May bean oil closed below the 20 day moving average of 3150. May bean oil settled at 3142
  • May meal closed below the 200 day moving average of 346.80. May meal settled at 345.70

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat sold 1,000
  • Corn sold 5,000
  • Beans bought 10,000
  • Meal bought 4,000
  • Bean oil bought 2,000

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • China markets return from holiday tomorrow.
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a build of 3.75 MB
    • Gas a draw of 2.0 MB
    • Distillates a draw of 3.75 MB
    • Weekly US ethanol plant production out tomorrow at 930 am CST

 

Open outcry option activity:

Corn:

JPM sold 1000 J 395 calls

ICAP bot 2000 K 330 puts

RJO sold 2000 K 420 calls

ICAP sold 1000 K 400 calls

ABN bot 1000 N 370 puts/sold 2000 N 340 puts

ABN bot 800 K 350 puts/bot 80 CK

FI bot 500 U 410 straddles

FI sold 500 K 365 puts

Macquarie sold 500 N/Z -15 cents cso calls

Dowd bot 500 U 410 straddles

 

Beans:

RJO bot 2500 N 960 puts

FI bot 1000 K 1060 calls

Rand bot 2000 J 1020 puts/bot 860 SK

Rosenthal bot 2000 J 1010-1000 put spreads

Dowd bot 1000 J 1040 calls/sold 420 SK

Tenco bot 1000 K 970-910 put spreads

JPM bot 500 K 1100 calls

JPM sold 500 J 1030 calls

RJO bot 600 K 1000 puts/sold 1200 K 900 puts

Rosenthal bot 500 K 980 puts

Rosenthal bot 500 J 1030 puts

Bache bot 700 J 110 calls

Rand bot 500 K 1100 calls

Rand sold 500 N 900-860 put spreads

Rand bot 500 U 960-940 put spreads

Rand bot 500 X 1000-1100 call spreads

ABN bot 500 K 1000-950 put spreads/bot 100 SK

 

Wheat:

Rosenthal sold 400 N 610-710 call spreads

 

Meal:

RJO sold 1500 K 350 calls

Tenco sold 500 J 350 calls

Tenco sold 500 K 360 calls

FI sold 500 N 330 puts/bot 750 N 390 calls

FCS sold 400 K 350-360 call spreads

JPM bot 300 N 350-360 call spreads

Rosenthal bot 300 J 340 puts/sold 300 K 360 calls

RJO sold 200 K 320-310 put spreads

 

Oil:

Tenco sold 1000 K 30 puts

JPM bot 1000 N 32 calls/sold 500 BON

RJO bot 200 K 31 ½ puts

RJO bot 200 J 31 ½ puts

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn:

J vol 17 ½ 385 str 15 ¼ -16 ¼

K vol 22 ¾ 385 str 28-28 ½

M vol 23 390 str 34-36

N vol 25 390 str 45 14 -46 ¼

U vol 28 400 str 62-63

Z vol 25 ½ 410 str 70 ¾ -71 ¾

 

Beans:

J vol 17 ½ 1020 str 42-43 ½

K vol 20 1020 str 65 ½-67

N vol 20 ¾ 1020 str 98-100

X vol 20 980 str 127-129

 

Wheat:

J vol 24 500 str 28-31

K vol 25 500 str 40-43

N vol 25 ½ 510 str 60-62

U vol 25 ¾ 520 str 75-77

Z vol 24 ¼ 530 str 89-90

 

KC wheat:

J vol 24 ¼ 540 str 30-32

K vol 24 ½ 540 str 41-44

N vol 24 ½ 550 str 60-63

U vol 24 ¼ 560 str 74-77

Z vol 22 ½ 580 str 86-90

 

Minneapolis wheat:

K vol 21 ¼ 570 str 37-41

N vol 21 ¾ 580 str 55-60

U vol 22 ¼ 580 str 67-73

Z vol 21 ¼ 590 str 77-83

 

Meal:

J vol 24.5 340 str 18-19.5

K vol 24.5 340 str 26-27.5

N vol 23.75 340 str 36-38

Q vol 23.5 330 str 38-40

U vol 23 330 str 40-43

V vol 21.75 330 str 43-45

Z vol 20.75 330 str 45-48

 

Bean oil:

J vol 19.75 31.5 str 145-155

K vol 20 31.5 str 200-215

N vol 19.75 31.5 str 285-300

Q vol 19.5 31.5 str 310-330

U vol 19.5 31.5 str 345-375

V vol 19.5 31.5 str 375-405

Z vol 19.25 31.5 str 405-435

 

Crush quotes:

OPEN                      CLOSE

MCH          1.115-1.135         1.145-1.155

MAY          89.5-90.5              88-89.5

JLY              79.5-81                 79-79.5

AUG           77-79.5                76.5-78

SEP              85-89                    86-88

OCT             84-86                    85.5-87

DEC             82.5-84                 84.5-85

JAN             80-83                    82-84

MCH6        78-83                     81-83

MAY6        75-79                     79-80

 

Crush and oil share players:

  • ADM sold 50 May crush at 88.5
  • Futures International bought 367 bean oil sold 220 July meal at 31.72%

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE