From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 2/19/15

News:

 

Annual USDA Outlook Forum started today and ends tomorrow. Here is the link from the Acting USDA Chief Economist speech at the conference.

http://www.usda.gov/oce/forum/2015_Speeches/Johansson_Slides.pdf

US EPA plans to propose renewable fuel standards for 2014, 2015 , and 2016 this spring –Reuters

 

US EPA plans to propose 2014 biofuels blending volumes based on actual production levels –Reuters

 

US generated 1.227 billion D6 ethanol RINs in January -EPA

 

US generated 141.3 million D4 biodiesel RINs in January -EPA

 

Egypt GASC bought 240,000 tons of wheat for March shipment. 180,000 tons from France and 60,000 tons from Romania.

 

Algeria bought 400,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat (possibly from France) for June shipment.

 

Oil World said EU’s July –Dec 2014 rapeseed crush was 13.5 MMT up 6% from a year earlier.

 

Oil World said EU’s July –Dec 2014 soybean crush was 6.5 MMT unchanged from a year ago

 

Oil World said EU’s July-Dec 2014 sunseed crush was 3.6 MMT vs. 3.7 MMT a year ago

 

Truckers strike in Mato Grosso continued today.

 

March beans closed above the 100 day moving average of 1007. March beans settled at 1007 ¼

 

March corn closed above the 20 and 100 day moving average of 382 ½. March corn settled at 389 ¾

 

May corn closed above the 20 day moving average day of 390 ½ and above the 100 day moving average of 391 ¼ . May corn settled at 397 ¾.

 

May wheat closed below the 20 day moving average of 521 ½ . May wheat settled at 519 ½

 

May Minneapolis wheat closed above the 20 day moving average of 575 ½. May Minneapolis wheat settled at 577 ¼.

 

March meal closed above the 50 day moving average of 342.70. March meal settled at 347.50

 

May meal closed above the 50 day moving average of 336.10 and the 100 day moving average of 332.60 . May meal settled at 339.70.

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat sold 2,000
  • Corn bought 8,000
  • Beans bought 9,000
  • Meal bought 4,000
  • Bean oil sold 1,000

 

Open outcry option activity: -March options expire tomorrow

  • Rosenthal bought 2,000 May bean 920 puts at 7 3/8 -7 ½
  • RJO sold 1,000 Nov bean 900 puts at 29 5/8 -29 7/8 and sold 250 Nov bean futures at 978
  • Macquarie bought 1,500 April bean 1050 calls at 9 5/8 -9 ¾ and sold 420 May futures at 1016
  • ABN bought 1,500 May bean 1020 calls at 26 and sold 660 May futures at 1004
  • Jefferies bought 750 May bean 960-920 put spreads at 8 and bought 90 May futures at 1009 ½
  • Rosenthal bought 2,000 March bean 1010 puts at 5 ½ -6 ¼
  • Tenco bought 600 March bean 1000 puts at 2 1/8 -2 ¼
  • Rand bought 2,000 May bean 1000 puts at 27 ¼ and bought 800 May bean futures at 1015
  • Dowd Wescott bought 1,000 Sept corn 420 straddles at 68 7/8 -69.
  • RJO sold 800 Dec corn 380 puts at 18 ½ , tied to futures at 419 ½
  • RJO bought 1,000 May corn 390 puts and sold 2,000 May corn 370 puts at 1 7/8 debit.
  • JP Morgan sold 1,000 Dec corn 400 puts at 27 ¼ , tied to futures at 419 ¼
  • FI sold 600 April corn 395 straddles at 19 ½
  • FI bought 1,000 March corn 385 puts at 1
  • ICAP bought 1,000 May corn 390 straddles at 30 ½ -31 ¾ , tied to futures at 392-396
  • JP Morgan bought 1,000 July wheat 530-560 call spreads at 10
  • EDF Mann bought 550 May wheat 500 puts at 12 and bought 154 May futures at 522 ½
  • FC Stone bought 200 Dec wheat 550 straddles at 95
  • Tenco bought 500 March wheat 520 puts at a ½
  • ADM bought 800 July KC wheat 500 puts and sold 800 May KC wheat 480 puts at 4
  • Tenco sold 400 Dec KC wheat  520 puts at 18-19
  • Rand bought 2,600 May meal 300-250 put spreads at 2.75
  • JP Morgan bought 400 May meal 340-360 call spreads at 7.00
  • JP Morgan bought 1,000 May meal 330 puts at 9.40-945 , tied to futures at 341.00 , 36 delta.
  • Wedbush bought 300 July bean oil 32 calls and sold 300 July bean oil 30 puts at 75 debit
  • Tenco bought 500 May bean oil 29 puts at 22 (they bought 1,100 yesterday at 19)

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST. Expecting
    • Wheat – 300 -500,000 tons
    • Corn – 650 -900,000 tons
    • Beans – 375 -550,000 tons
    • Meal – 150 -300,000 tons
    • Bean oil – 10 -50,000 tons
    • March options expire tomorrow at 115 pm CST
    • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST.
    • China, Malaysia, Taiwan, South Korea, and Indonesia markets are close again tomorrow

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles –March options expire tomorrow at 115 pm CST

 

Corn:

H vol 17 390 str 4 ½ -5

J vol 19 400 str 19 ¼ -19 ¾

K vol 23 ½ 400 str 31 ½ -32

N vol 26 ¼ 410 str 50 ½-51

U vol 28 ¾ 410 str 67-67 ¼

Z vol 26 420 str 75-75 ½

H16 vol 24 ¼ 430 str 82-83

 

Beans:

H vol 23 1010 str 13-14

J vol 17 ½ 1020 str 44 ½-46

K vol 20 1020 str 67 ½-69

N vol 20 ¾ 1020 str 98 ½-99 ½

X vol 19 ¾ 980 str 126 ½-128

 

Wheat:

H vol 20 ¼ 530 str 7 ½-8 1/2

J vol 25 520 str 32 ½ -34

K vol 25 ½ 520 str 44-45 ½

N vol 24 ½ 550 str 61-67

U vol 26 ¼ 530 str 77-80

Z vol 25 540 str 91 ½ -95 ½

H16 vol 23 ½ 550 str 100 ½-104 ½

 

KC wheat:

H vol 17 ½ 545 str 6-8

J vol 23 ¾ 545 str 31 ½-34 ½

K vol 24 545 str 42 ½-46 ½

N vol 24 ½ 550 str 61-67

U vol 25 560 str 76 ½-82 ½

Z vol 24 580 str 92-99

 

Minneapolis wheat:

H vol 20 580 str 7-13

K vol 22 580 str 39-46

N vol 23 580 str 57 ½ -66 ½

U vol 23 590 str 72-82

Z vol 23 600 str 90-100

 

Meal:

H vol 23.25 350 str 5.50-7.50

J vol 24.5 340 str 20.5-22

K vol 25 340 str 28-29.5

N vol 24.25 340 str 37.5-39

Q vol 23 330 str 38.5-40.5

U vol 22.25 330 str 41-43

V vol 21 330 str 43-45

Z vol 20.5 330 str 45-48

 

Bean oil:

H vol 21.5 32 str 30-45

J vol 20.5 32 str 160-175

K vol 20.5 32 str 215-230

N vol 20.5 32 str 300-320

Q vol 20.25 32 str 320-350

U vol 20 32 str 345-375

V vol 19.5 32 str 380-410

Z vol 19.75 32 str 415-445

 

Crush quotes:

OPEN              CLOSE

MCH        1.01-1.03        1.075-1.085

MAY        82.5-83            88-88.5

JLY            73.5-74            78-78.5

AUG        72-73                75-76

SEP          82.5-85             85-86.5

OCT         82-84                 83.5-84

DEC         81-82.5              82.5-83

JAN         79-80.5              80-82

MCH6     76-80                 79-80

MAY6      75-79                77-78.5

 

Crush and oil share players:

  • Drax bought 200 March crush at 1.06
  • Drax sold 200 May crush at 86.5
  • Jefferies bought 100 May crush at 87
  • Tenco sold 100 May crush at 86
  • No oil share pit players today

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE