From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 2/17/15

News:


Egypt GASC in for US wheat for April shipment.

 

Weekly US export inspections report came out today at 10 am CST

  • Wheat at 401,937 tons , expecting 300 -450,000 tons
  • Corn at 724,900 tons, expecting 700 -900,000 tons
  • Beans at 1,335,647 tons, expecting 1.25 -1.45 million tons

 

Morocco’s ONICL bought 171,600 tons of domestic soft wheat

 

Oil World estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 91.0 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 94.5 MMT

 

Oil World estimated Argentina’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 56.0 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 56.0 MMT

 

Russian statistics agency said Feb 1st grain stocks were at 29.2 MMT up 15% from a year ago

 

UkrAgroConsult said Ukraine’s 2015 corn area could fall by 5-7% from 2014’s area of 4.6 MH

 

UkrAgroConsult said as of Feb 13th that 40% of Ukraine’s winter cereals crop is in good condition vs. 59% a year ago , 42% is in satisfactory condition vs. 34% a year ago , and 18% is in poor condition vs. 7% a year ago

 

Favorable weather in France, Germany, UK, and Poland.

 

FranceAgriMer said 92% of France’s soft wheat crops are in good to excellent condition vs. 74% a year ago

 

Bitter cold in US Midwest this week.

 

March beans closed above the 100 day moving average of 1005 ¾ . March beans settled at 1007 ¾ .

 

February’s 3rd high in March beans was $9.99. The high in March beans overnight was $9.99 ¾ and the high in March beans during the day session was $10.09.

 

Front month (March) soybeans traded above $10 for the first time since Jan 15

 

March Minneapolis wheat closed below the 100 day moving average of 590 ½ . March Minneapolis wheat closed at 588.

 

March bean oil closed above the 50 day moving average of 3208. March bean oil settled at 3232.

 

March soymeal closed above the 100 day moving average of 337.20. March meal settled at 342.30.

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat bought 1,000
  • Corn bought 3,000
  • Beans bought 7,000
  • Meal bought 3,000
  • Bean oil sold 1,000

 

Open outcry option activity:

  • Jefferies bought 2,000 May bean 1080 calls at 7-9 ¼.
  • Jefferies sold 1,000 March bean 960 puts at ¾
  • JP Morgan bought 1,000 May bean 900 puts and 1,000 May bean 1020 calls at 27 1/8 -27 ¼ and sold 315 May bean futures at 1000
  • ABN bought 600 April bean 950 puts and sold 900 April bean 910 puts at 6 ½ -7
  • Macquarie bought 1,000 March bean 1020 calls at 4-4 1/8 and sold 260 March futures at 1006
  • Marex bought 1,000 April bean 980 puts and sold 1,000 March bean 980 puts at 8 ¾ debit and bought 150 March futures at 1007.
  • ABN bought 1,000 May bean 1060-1100 call spreads at 7 3/8 .
  • Drax bought 2,000 March bean 1000 calls at 8 and sold 960 March futures at 999.
  • Drax bought 2,000 May corn 430 calls at 5 3/8 and sold 440 May futures at 397.
  • Drax bought 2,000 May corn 430 calls at 4 ½ -4 ¾
  • FI bought 500 Sept corn 420 straddles at 67 ½.
  • FI bought 1,000 Sept corn 440-540 call spreads at 15 7/8-16
  • ABN sold 500 Dec corn 400 puts at 26 1/8
  • FI bought 2,000 March wheat 560 puts and sold 2,000 July wheat 560 puts at 22 ½ -24 ½ credit.
  • New Edge bought 500 March wheat 550-540 put spreads at 6.
  • RJO bought 400 March meal 330 puts at .75
  • FI sold 800 March meal 335-325 put spreads at .75
  • RJO bought 500 Oct bean oil 34 calls at 140
  • ABN bought 500 May bean oil 28 puts at 10
  • JP Morgan sold 400 May bean oil 30 puts at 32

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • May corn, wheat, KC wheat, beans, meal, bean oil , rice, and oats go top step (spot month) tonight/tomorrow.
  • Brazil and Argentina markets resume trading tomorrow. Brazil and Argentina markets were closed Monday and Tuesday for Carnival.
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report and US ethanol report is delayed until Thursday due to US holiday on Monday

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn:

H vol 21 ¾ 390 str 6 ½-7

J vol 19 ½ 400 str 20-20 ¾

K vol 22 ¾ 400 str 31-31 ¾

N vol 25 ¾ 410 str 49 ½ -50

U vol 28 410 str 65 ¼-66

Z vol 25 ½ 420 str 73 ½-74 ½

 

Beans:

H vol 21 ½ 1000 str 18-20

J vol 16 7/8 1000 str 44-46

K vol 18 7/8 1000 str 64-66

N vol 19 ¾ 1020 str 95-96 ½

X vol 19 980 str 122-123 ½

 

Wheat:

H vol 27 530 str 11-13

J vol 25 ¾ 530 str 34-36

K vol 25 ¾ 530 str 45-48

N vol 25 ¾ 530 str 65-67

U vol 26 ½ 540 str 79-83

Z vol 24 ½ 560 str 92-98

 

KC wheat:

H vol 25 ¼ 560 str 11-13

J vol 24 560 str 34-36

K vol 24 ¼ 560 str 45-47

N vol 24 ½ 570 str 65-67

U vol 24 ¼ 580 str 78-81

Z vol 23 590 str 92-96

 

Minneapolis wheat:

H vol 20 ½ 590 str 9-15

K vol 22 ½ 590 str 42-50

N vol 23 ½ 590 str 62-70

U vol 23 ½ 600 str 75-85

Z vol 23 ½ 610 str 93-105

H vol 24 ½ 620 str 110-130

 

Meal:

H vol 24.5 340 str 6.5-8.5

J vol 23.75 330 str 20.5-22.5

K vol 24.25 330 str 28.5-30.5

N vol 22.75 330 str 37-38

Q vol 22.5 330 str 39-41

U vol 22 330 str 41-43

V vol 21.25 320 str 42-44

Z vol 20.25 320 str 45-48

 

Bean oil:

H vol 21.5 32.5 str 55-70

J vol 20.5 32.5 str 160-180

K vol 20.5 32.5 str 215-235

N vol 20.25 33 str 305-325

Q vol 20.25 33 str 335-375

U vol 20 33 str 360-400

V vol 20 32.5 str 410-440

Z vol 20 32.5 str 435-465

 

Crush quotes:

OPEN               CLOSE

MCH           97-98              1.00-1.02

MAY           79.5-80.5       83-83.5

JLY               70.5-72          73.5-74

AUG            69-71.5          71.5-72

SEP              82-84               83-85

OCT             81.5-84           83-84.5

DEC             80-81.5            81-82

JAN             78.5-80           79.5-81

MCH6         75-81              78.5-81

MAY6          73-79              73.5-79

 

Crush and oil share players:

  • RJO sold 90 May crush at 82
  • ABN bought 60 May crush and sold 60 July crush at 10.25 , May crush over.
  • ABN bought 90 May crush and sold 90 July crush at 10.5, May crush is over
  • No oil share pit players today.

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE