From The Floor- An Afternoon Recap 2/12/15

News:

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchanged estimated Argentina’ s ‘14/15 corn crop at 22.5 MMT .

 

Paraguayan Oilseed Crushers Association estimated Paraguay’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 7.9 -8.0 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 8.5 MMT

 

CONAB estimated total Brazilian ‘14/15 grain crop at 200.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 202.2 MMT

 

Celeres estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 91.0 MMT

 

Celeres estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 corn crop at 76.7 MMT

 

Based on a Bloomberg survey India’s January palm oil imports estimated at 650,000 tons up 19% from a year ago.

 

Based on a Bloomberg survey India’s January bean oil imports estimated at 200,000 tons vs. 174,236 tons a year ago

 

Based on a Bloomberg survey India’s January sunflower oil imports estimated at 130,000 tons vs. 135,390 tons a year ago .

 

Based on a Bloomberg survey India’s January veg oil imports estimated at 1.025 MMT  vs. 905,814 tons a year ago

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India estimated India’s ‘14/15 palm oil imports at 12.5 MMT (record).

 

Sinograin estimated China’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 11.65 MMT

 

Sinograin estimated China’s ‘14/15 bean consumption at 83.5 MMT up 4.5 MMT from a year ago

 

Sinograin estimated China’s ‘14/15 bean imports at 71.5 MMT.

 

Russia’s Ag Min said Russia cannot exempt wheat supplies to Egypt from a recently –launched export tax.

 

Strategie Grains estimated EU’s ‘15/16 soft wheat exports at 29.0 MMT up 2.0 M from previous estimate

 

Strategie Grains estimated EU’s ‘14/15 soft wheat exports at 32.5 MMT (record) up 3.0 M from previous estimate.

 

Japan bought 129,395 tons of food wheat for April shipment. Breakdown:

  • 14,080 tons of US western white wheat
  • 8,380 tons of US HRW wheat
  • 18,495 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 61,400 tons of Canadian western red spring wheat
  • 27,040 tons of Australian white wheat

 

Morocco seeks 360,000 tons of EU soft wheat and 45,000 tons of EU durum wheat for May shipment.

 

Jordan seeks 100,000 tons of feed barley optional origin for Aug-Sept shipment.

 

South Korea KOCOPIA bought 53,000 tons of optional origin corn for Junes shipment

 

South Korea KFA bought 60,000 tons of optional origin corn for August shipment

 

South Korea KFA canceled tender for 30,000 tons of optional origin feed wheat for May shipment

 

Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report came out today at 930 am CST at -160 BCF expecting -168 BCF.

 

Today was the last day of the Goldman Sachs roll. They have been rolling long March positions into May. On the close:

  • 7,541 March /May bean spreads traded at -3 ¼ to -2 ½
  • 5,967 March / May bean oil spreads traded at -19 and -18
  • 5,513 March /May soymeal spreads traded at 6.60-7.00
  • 19,925 March/ May corn spreads traded at -8 to -7 ¾
  • 11,293 March /May wheat spreads traded at  ¾ -2 ¼
  • 2,562 March /May KC wheat spreads traded at -1 to – ½

 

March beans closed above the 20 day moving average of 976 ½. March beans settled at 976 ½

 

March corn closed above the 20 day moving average of 382 ½ . March corn settled at 383

 

March wheat closed slightly below the 20 day moving average of 521 ½ . March wheat settled at 521 ¼

 

March KC wheat closed below the 20 day moving average of 558. March KC wheat settled at 554

 

March Minneapolis wheat closed above the 20 day moving average of 572 ¼ March Minneapolis wheat settled at 574 ¾

 

March oil closed above the 20 day moving average of 3148, and closed below the 50 day moving average of 3206. March bean oil settled at 3201.

 

March meal closed below the 20 day moving average of 331.60. March meal settled at 330.50

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat sold 3,000
  • Corn sold 5,000
  • Beans bought 4,000
  • Meal bought 1,000
  • Bean oil bought 2,000

 

Open outcry option activity:

  • Drax bought 1,000 March bean 1000-1080 call spreads and sold 1,000 March 950 puts at 1 ½ debit
  • ABN sold 4,000 March bean 970 puts at 6 ¼ -6 ½ and sold 1,520 March bean futures at 977.
  • Marex bought 1,000 March bean 960 puts at 2 ¾ and bought 200 March bean futures at 980
  • FI bought 500 Nov bean 860 puts and sold 1,000 Nov bean 800 puts at 1 ¼ debit
  • Drax bought 4,000 Dec corn 450-500 call spreads at 10 ¾ tied to Dec futures at 415.
  • RJO bought 2,000 July corn 430 calls and sold 2,000 May corn 350 puts at 11 1/8 -11 ¼ debit.
  • RJO bought 1,000 July corn 430 calls at 13
  • JP Morgan bought 1,000 Dec corn 440-540 call spreads and sold 1,000 Dec corn 360 puts at 5 ½ debit.
  • Rand bought 2,000 Sept corn 440 calls at 18 5/8 -19
  • Drax bought 1,000 Sept corn 460 calls and sold 2,000 Dec corn 340 puts at ½ – ¾ credit.
  • FI bought 600 April wheat 560 calls at 6 1/8 tied to May futures at 520.
  • ICAP bought 500 April wheat 515 puts and sold 500 April wheat 545 calls at 3 ¾ debit tied to May futures at 523 ½ .
  • Tenco sold 700 July KC wheat 600 calls at 18-18 ½
  • Jefferies bought 500 May meal 300 puts at 6.10
  • RJO bought 278 May meal 300 puts and sold 417 May meal 330-340 call spread at even.
  • RJO bought 300 May bean oil 3150-2950 put spreads at 60
  • FC Stone bought 400 May bean oil 29 puts at 20.

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • CEC comes out tomorrow with their South African crop estimates .
    • Based on a Bloomberg survey South Africa’s corn crop estimated at 14.3 MMT vs. 11.7 MMT a year ago
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST.
  • NOPA January crush report comes out on Tuesday at 11 am CST. Based on a Reuters survey expecting
    • Crush average estimate is 162.673 MB , range of estimates are 157.5 -166.135 MB. December crush was 165.383 MB and in January 2014 crush was 156.943 MB.
    • Bean oil stocks average estimate is 1.170 billion lbs. , range of estimates are 1.014 -1.281 billion lbs. December bean oil stocks were 1.068 B and in January 2014 bean oil stocks were 1.794 billion.
    • Meal exports – no estimate is given for meal exports. In December meal exports were 1,004,548 tons and in January 2014 meal exports were 1,005,302 tons.

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn:

H vol 19 ½ 385 str 8 ½ -9

J vol 18 ½ 390 str 19 ½ -20 ¼

K vol 21 ½ 390 str 29 ½ -30

N vol 24 ½ 400 str 47-47 ½

U vol 27 400 str 61 ¾ -62 ¾

Z vol 24 ¾ 410 str 70 ¼ -71

 

Beans:

H vol 15 ½ 980 str 18-19 ½

J vol 16 ¼ 980 str 44-45 ½

K vol 18 980 str 62 ½ -63 ½

N vol 19 ¼ 980 str 92-94

X vol 19 ¼ 960 str 122 ½-124

 

Wheat:

H vol 25 ¼ 520 str 14-15

J vol 25 520 str 35-36

K vol 25 ½ 520 str 46-48

N vol 25 ¾ 520 str 64-66

U vol 26 530 str 78-80

Z vol 25 540 str 94-96

 

KC wheat:

H vol 23 550 str 15-16

J vol 23 ½ 550 str 35-37

K vol 24 550 str 46-48

N vol 24 560 str 65-67

U vol 24 ¼ 570 str 79-81

Z vol 23 580 str 92-94

 

Minneapolis wheat:

H vol 19 ½ 570 str 13 ½-15 ½

K vol 21 ¾ 580 str 42-47

N vol 22 ¾ 580 str 60-65

U vol 23 ¼ 590 str 74-80

Z vol 22 ¾ 600 str 89-95

 

Meal:

H vol 20 330 str 8.00- 9.00

J vol 23.5 320 str 21.5-23.5

K vol 23.25 320 str 27-29

N vol 22.75 320 str 35.5-37.5

Q vol 21.75 320 str 37.5-39.5

U vol 21.5 320 str 39-42

V vol 20.5 320 str 40-43

Z vol 20 310 str 43.5-45.5

 

Bean oil:

H vol 20.5 32 str 70-80

J vol 20 32 str 165-180

K vol 20 32 str 215-235

N vol 20 32 str 300-325

Q vol 20 32 str 330-360

U vol 20 32 str 355-385

V vol 20 32 str 390-420

Z vol 20 32 str 430-460

 

Crush quotes:

Open                     Close

Mar        97.5-98.0             95.0-96.0

May       79.5-80.0              79.5-80.0

July           70.5-71.0              71.0-72.0

Aug        70.0-71.25           70.0-72.0

Sep        79.0-84.0              81.0-84.0

Oct         80.5-82.5              81.0-83.0

Dec        80.0-80.5              80.5-81.5

Jan6       78.0-80.0              78.0-80.0

Mch6     78.0-80.0             78.0-80.0

 

Crush and oil share players:

  • Rand sold 100 May crush at 79.25
  • ABN sold 73 August crush at 71

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE