From The Floor- An Afternoon Recap 2/10/15

News:

 

See attachment for full USDA report from this morning.

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘14/15 Brazilian bean crop at 93.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘14/15 Brazilian corn crop at 74.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘14/15 Argentina bean crop at 56.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘14/15 Argentina corn crop at 22.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Abiove estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 92.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 91.9 MMT

 

Abiove estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 bean exports at 48.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Russian customs data showed Russia exported 22.1 MMT of wheat in 2014 vs. 13.8 MMT in 2013

 

UK customs data showed the UK exported 224,881 tons of wheat in December .

 

Libya official said Libya wheat reserves to last two to three months without fresh supplies.

 

Jordan canceled tender for 100,000 tons of feed barley for August –Sept shipment

 

Today was the third day of the Goldman Sachs roll. They are rolling long March positions into May. Roll ends on Thursday. On the close:

  • 5,710 March /May bean spreads traded at -5 ¼ to -5
  • 6,366 March / May bean oil spreads traded at -22 to -20
  • 5,551 March /May soymeal spreads traded at 6.90-7.60
  • 19,489 March/ May corn spreads traded at -8 ¼ to -8
  • 9,242 March /May wheat spreads traded at  – ¾ to even
  • 2,914 March /May KC wheat spreads traded at -2 ¾ to -2

 

March beans closed below the 20 day moving average of 979 ¾. March beans settled at 969.

 

March wheat closed below the 20 day moving average of 523 ½ . March wheat settled at 521 ¾

 

March KC wheat closed below the 20 day moving average of 560 ½. March KC wheat settled at 554

 

March Minneapolis wheat closed below the 20 day moving average of 573 ¼ . March Minneapolis wheat settled at 570 ½

 

March bean oil closed below the 20 day moving average of 3159. March bean oil settled at 3145

 

March bean oil closed below the 50 day moving average of 3209 . March bean oil settled at 3145

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat sold 6,000
  • Corn sold 8,000
  • Beans sold 8,000
  • Meal sold 3,000
  • Bean oil sold 4,000

 

Open outcry option activity:

  • ABN bought 1,200 May bean 920 puts at 12 ¾ -13 ¼
  • ABN bought 1,000 July bean 1100 calls at 12 ¼ -12 ½
  • TJM sold 1,000 May bean 900 puts at 8 ½ -8 ¾
  • Rosenthal sold 1,500 March bean 970 puts at 7 ½ -9.
  • Rosenthal sold 1,000 March bean 990 puts at 18-19
  • FI sold 1,200 March bean 960-920 put spreads at 6 ½ -6 ¾
  • Mann bought 1,000 March bean 970 straddles at 26 ½-27
  • ICAP bought 3,000 March corn 380 puts at 2 7/8 -3
  • ABN bought 1,500 April corn 405 calls at 7 ¾
  • ADM sold 1,000 week 4 corn 380 puts at 2
  • New Edge bought 1,000 March corn 400-410 call spreads at 1 ½ and sold 140 March corn futures at 389
  • Rand bought 1,000 Sept corn 440 calls at 19 ¾
  • Rand bought 1,500 May corn 420 calls at 6 5/8 -7 3/8
  • Drax bought 2,000 May corn 420 calls at 7 3/8 -7 7/8
  • Jefferies bought 1,000 Dec corn 450-500 call spreads at 10 ½ tied to futures at 415, 17 delta
  • ADM sold 1,000 May corn 380 puts at 8 ½
  • JP Morgan sold 1,000 March corn 400 calls at 2 tied to futures at 389, 24 delta
  • Macquarie sold 1,500 May corn 395 calls at 16 1/8 tied to futures at 396, 52 delta
  • Tenco sold 400 March wheat 510 puts at 3 ½.
  • ICAP bought 1,000 May meal 300 puts at 6.00
  • FC Stone bought 500 May meal 300-280 put spreads at 3.50
  • Bunge sold 1,000 July meal 340-360 put spreads at 4.50-4.75
  • TJM sold 500 March meal 340 calls at 1.30 , tied to futures at 329.00
  • RJO bought 1,000 May bean oil 3250 calls at 87 and 90 , tied to futures at 3184 and 3190.
  • FI bought 500 March bean oil 32-31.5 put spreads at 34.

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST.
  • USDA to release updated baseline acreage projections tomorrow. According to Reuters USDA confirmed it will make no changes on Feb 11th to long term supply and demand tables released on December 18th.
    • The full long-term report due Wednesday and the figures released in December are available at www.usda.gov/oce.
    • On December 18th the USDA estimated ‘15/16 US corn planting area at 88.0 MA
    • On December 18th the USDA estimated ‘15/16 US bean planting area at 84.0 MA
    • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST. Expecting
      • Crude a build of 3.5 million barrels
      • Gas a draw of 500,000 barrels
      • Distillates a draw of 1.5 million barrels
      • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST.
      • NOPA January crush report comes out on Tuesday February 17th at 11 am CST.

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn:

H vol 23 ½ 390 str 11-11 ¾

J vol 20 395 str 21 ½ -22 ¼

K vol 21 ¾ 395 str 30 ½ -31 ¼

N vol 23 ¾ 400 str 46 ¼ -47

U vol 26 410 str 61 ½ -63

Z vol 24 420 str 70-70 ¾

 

Beans:

H vol 17 ¼ 970 str 23 -23 ½

J vol 17 ¼ 970 str 47- 48 ½

K vol 18 ¾ 970 str 64-66

N vol 19 ½ 980 str 93 ½ -94 ½

X vol 19 ¼ 960 str 122-123 ½

 

Wheat:

H vol 23 ¾ 520 str 17-18

J vol 25 ¼ 520 str 35-38

K vol 25 ¼ 520 str 47-50

N vol 25 ¾ 530 str 65-68

U vol 26 530 str 80-83

Z vol 24 ½ 550 str 94-97

 

KC wheat:

H vol 23 550 str 17-19

J vol 24 560 str 37-39

K vol 24 ¼ 560 str 47-50

N vol 24 ¼ 560 str 65-67

U vol 24 570 str 78-81

Z vol 23 590 str 93-97

 

Minneapolis wheat:

H vol 19 ½ 570 str 15 ½-17 ½

K vol 21 ½ 570 str 42-47

N vol 22 ¾ 580 str 59-64

U vol 22 ¾ 590 str 72-78

Z vol 22 ¼ 600 str 87-93

 

Meal:

H vol 23 330 str 9.5-11.5

J vol 23 320 str 21-23

K vol 22.5 320 str 35.5-37

N vol 22.25 320 str 35.5-37

Q vol 22.25 320 str 37.5-39.5

U vol 22.25 310 str 39-42

V vol 21.25 310 str 39.5-42

Z vol 20.5 310 str 43-45

 

Bean oil:

H vol 20.5 31.5 str 80-95

J vol 20 31.5 str 170-190

K vol 20 31.5 str 230-235

N vol 20 31.5 str 305-325

Q vol 20 31.5 str 330-360

U vol 20 31.5 355-385

V vol 20 31.5 str 390-420

Z vol 20 31.5 str 430-460

 

Crush quotes:

OPEN           CLOSE

MCH         96-97           95-96.5

MAY          78-79           77-78

JLY              70-71           67-69

AUG          69-70.5        69-70.5

SEP            78.5-85        76-81

OCT            80-82           79-82

DEC            79-80           78-79

JAN            76-79           75-79

MCH6        77-79.5       76-78.5

MAY6         75-78           75-77.5

 

Crush and oil share players:

  • RJO bought 100 September crush at 81.
  • No oil share pit players today

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE