From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 2/09/15

News:

 

Weekly US export inspections report came out this morning at 10 am CST.

  • Wheat at 397,661 tons, expecting 275,000 -400,000 tons
  • Corn at 700,990 tons, expecting 700 -850,000 tons
  • Beans at 1,485,490 tons, expecting 1.225 -1.5 million tons

 

CNGOIC estimated China’s ‘14/15 corn imports at 3.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 2.7 MMT

 

CNGOIC said China imported 2.6 MMT of corn in 2014.

 

CNGOIC estimated China’s ‘14/15 sorghum imports at 6.4 MMT vs. ‘13/14 imports of 4.16 MMT

 

CNGOIC estimated China’s ‘14/15 barley imports at 5.6 MMT vs. 3.61 MMT in ‘13/14

 

Indonesia announced their budget would only support a biofuel subsidy for 1.7 million tons of biodiesel instead of 3.4 million tons previously expected.

 

Russia’s Ag Min has decided to leave its intervention prices for grain unchanged.

 

Russia’s Ag Min said Russia exported 2.0 MMT of grain in January vs. expected volume of 1.0 MMT.

 

Russia’s Ag Min estimated Russia’s February grain exports at 1.2 MMT

 

Russia’s Ag Min said Russia exported 23.5 MMT of grain between July 1st –Feb 4th

  • Russia’s Ag Min said Russia exported 18.5 MMT of wheat between July 1st –Feb 4th

Russia’s Ag Min estimated Russia’s ‘14/15 grain exports at 28-30 MMT

 

Ukraine Ag Min said 82% of Ukraine’s winter grain crop is in good to satisfactory condition

 

APK Inform said Ukraine sunflower oil imports are expected to decline by 9% this season due to a fall in output and a rise in India’s import tax on edible oils.

 

APK Inform estimated Ukraine’s ‘14/15 sunflower oil exports at 3.75 MMT vs. 4.12 MMT in ‘13/14

 

APK Inform estimated Russia’s ‘14/15 sunflower exports at 1.45 MMT down 13% from ‘13/14

 

AgRural estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 91.9 MMT vs. previous estimate of 95.0 MMT , due to dry weather in January.

 

AgRural said Brazil has harvested 9% of their ‘14/15 bean crop vs. 12% a year ago

 

FC Stone estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 92.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 93.5 MMT

 

Safras e Mercado said Brazil has harvested 7.8% of their ‘14/15 bean crop vs. 13% a year ago and vs. 10% average

 

Safras e Mercado said Mato Grosso bean harvest is 14% complete vs. 19% a year ago and vs. 19% average

 

Safras e Mercado said Parana bean harvest is 12% complete vs. 15% a year ago and vs. 12% average

 

Ciara –CEC said Argentina farmers sold $256 million of grain last week up 8%.

 

Ciara –CEC said Argentina farmers sold $1.34 billion of grain in 2015.

 

Canada reported outbreak of H5N1 bird flu virus in southwest province of British Columbia .

 

Cargill said on Friday that it is suspending deliveries and shipments at corn mill in Fort Dodge, Iowa due to significant mechanical failure. –Reuters

 

French government said French farmers have sold 48.0 MMT of grain until Jan 1st 2015 vs. 43.0 MMT a year ago

 

French government said grain stocks in France as of January 1st were at 22.7 MMT vs. 19.6 MMT a year ago

 

French government said France exported 7.1 MMT of wheat between July –Nov 2014 vs. 6.9 MMT a year ago

 

French government said France exported 2.7 MMT of barley between July –Nov 2014 unchanged from a year ago

 

French government said France exported 3.1 MMT of corn between July –Nov 2014 vs. 2.5 MMT a year ago

 

National Cotton Council expects 2015 cotton acres to decline 15% to 9.4 MA , analysts suspect beans and sorghum will get the bulk of this unplanted area

 

Today was the second day of the Goldman Sachs roll. They are rolling long March positions into May. Roll ends on Thursday. On the close:

  • 8,637 March /May bean spreads traded at – 6 ½ to -6 ¼
  • 8,143 March / May bean oil spreads traded at -22 to -20
  • 6,396 March /May soymeal spreads traded at 6.50-6.90
  • 20,825 March/ May corn spreads traded at -8 ¼ to -8
  • 10,310 March /May wheat spreads traded at  – ¾ to – ¼
  • 3,071 March /May KC wheat spreads traded at -3 ½ to -2 ¾

 

March beans closed below the 20 day moving average of 981 ½ . March beans settled at 978 ½.

 

March wheat closed above the 20 day moving average of 524 ½. March wheat settled at 529 ¾.

 

March KC wheat closed at the 20 day moving average of 563 ½ . March KC wheat settled at 563 ½

 

March Minneapolis wheat closed above the 20 day moving average of 574 ¼ . March Minneapolis wheat closed at 574 ½

 

March meal closed below the 20 day moving average of 332.70. March meal settled at 329.60

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat bought 1,000
  • Corn bought 10,000
  • Beans bought 4,000
  • Meal bought 1,000
  • Bean oil bought 2,000

 

Open outcry option activity:

  • Jefferies sold 500 March bean 950 puts at 5 5/8 and sold 115 March futures at 973
  • Jefferies sold 1,000 March bean 900 puts at 3/8 – ½
  • FI sold 600 March 990 puts bought 600 May 980-930 put spreads at 3 ¼ -3 ½ credit, and sold 264 March futures at 976
  • Drax sold 1,000 March bean 960 puts at 7 ¾ -8 ¼
  • TJM sold 500 May bean 1000-1020 call spreads at 7 1/8 credit
  • RJO sold 300 April bean 960 puts and bought 1,500 April bean 880 puts at 4-4 ¼ credit
  • Rand bought 500 March bean 970 straddles at 27
  • RJO  bought 3,000 May corn 370 puts at 5 ¼
  • Rand sold 1,000 April corn 390 straddles at 23 ½
  • ADM bought 1,000 week 4 corn 380 puts at 2 ¼
  • Jefferies sold 1,500 March corn 410 calls at 7/8 tied to futures at 384
  • FI bought 1,600 May wheat 515 -480 put spreads at 12 -12 ½ .
  • ADM sold 400 March/May wheat CSO -5 calls at 5
  • RJO sold 500 March meal 350 calls at 1.00 tied to futures at 330.40
  • FI sold 300 March meal 320 puts at 2.55sti
  • ADM sold 800 March bean oil 31.5 calls at 70-72
  • FC Stone sold 700 March bean oil 32 calls at 44-45 tied to futures at 3185
  • FI sold 500 May bean oil 32 calls at 125
  • FI bought 500 April bean oil 34.5 calls and sold 500 April bean oil 32 straddles at 156.5 credit

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out tomorrow with their January palm oil data report. Based on a Reuters survey expecting
    • January palm oil exports average estimate is 1.29 MMT vs. December exports of 1.52 MMT
    • January palm oil stocks average estimate is 1.29 MMT vs. 2.01 MMT in December
    • January palm oil output average estimate is 1.19 MMT vs. 1.36 MMT in December
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek estimate Malaysia’s Feb 1-10th palm oil exports tomorrow
  • USDA supply and demand and crop production report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CST . See below or attachment for estimates .
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • CEC comes out on Friday with their South African crop estimates .
    • Based on a Bloomberg survey South Africa’s corn crop estimated at 14.3 MMT vs. 11.7 MMT a year ago

 

Estimates for tomorrow’s USDA report.

 

Estimates for ‘14/15 US ending stocks

  • Wheat (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is .689 BB, range of estimates are .595 – .730 BB. USDA January estimate was .687 BB.
  • Corn (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is 1.879 BB, range of estimates are 1.817– 2.002 BB. USDA January estimate was 1.877 BB
  • Beans (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is .398 BB, range of estimates are .356 – .440 BB. USDA January estimate was .410 BB

 

Estimates for ‘14/15 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (18 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is 195.83 MMT, range of estimates are 191.40 -197.00 MMT. USDA January estimate was 196.00 MMT
  • Corn (17 analysts surveyed) –  average estimate is 189.28 MMT, range of estimates are 187.60 – 190.93 MMT. USDA January estimate was 189.15 MMT
  • Beans (18 analysts surveyed) –  average estimate is 90.44 MMT, range of estimates are 88.75 – 91.53 MMT. USDA January estimate was 90.78 MMT

 

Estimates for ‘14/15 South American crop estimates

  • Argentine corn production (21 analysts surveyed) –  average estimate 22.54 MMT , range of estimates are 21.20-28.50 MMT and USDA January estimate was 22.0 MMT
  • Argentine bean production (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 55.58 MMT, range of estimates are 54.40 -59.50 MMT and USDA January estimate was 55.0 MMT
  • Brazilian corn production (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 74.56 MMT, range of estimates are 72.80-76.00 MMT and USDA January estimate was 75.0 MMT
  • Brazilian beans production (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 94.67 MMT, range of estimates are 93.00 – 96.50 MMT and USDA January estimate was 95.50 MMT

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn:

H vol 24 ½ 390 str 13 ¼ -13 ¾

J vol 20 ¾ 400 str 23 ½-24 ¼

K vol 22 ½ 400 str 32 ¼-33

N vol 24 ¾ 410 str 48 ¾-49 ¾

U vol 26 ½ 410 str 62 ½-63 ½

Z vol 24 ¼ 420 str 71-72

 

Beans:

H vol 19 980 str 27-27 ½

J vol 18 980 str 50-51 ½

K vol 19 ¼ 980 str 67-69

N vol 20 980 str 96-97 ½

X vol 19 ½ 960 str 124-125

 

Wheat:

H vol 27 ½ 530 str 20-21

J vol 26 530 str 39-41

K vol 26 ¼ 530 str 49-51

N vol 26 ½ 530 str 68-70

U vol 26 540 str 81-83

Z vol 25 550 str 96-99

 

KC wheat:

H vol 26 560 str 22-23

J vol 25 570 str 39-42

K vol 24 ½ 570 str 49-52

N vol 25 570 str 68-71

U vol 24 ¼ 580 str 80-85

Z vol 23 ½ 600 str 96-100

 

Minneapolis wheat:

H vol 23 580 str 19-22

K vol 23 580 str 47-52

N vol 23 ¼ 590 str 63-69

U vol 23 ¾ 590 str 76-82

Z vol 23 ¼ 600 str 92-98

 

Meal:

H vol 23.25 330 str 11.5-12.5

J vol 23.75 320 str 22-24

K vol 24 320 str 27.5-29

N vol 23 320 str 35.5-37.5

Q vol 22 320 str 37-40

U vol 21.5 320 str 39.5-42

V vol 21.5 320 str 41-44

Z vol 20 320 str 44-46

 

Bean oil:

H vol 20.5 32 str 90-100

J vol 20.25 32 str 180-195

K vol 20.25 32 str 225-245

N vol 20.25 32.5 str 310-325

Q vol 20 32.5 str 335-355

U vol 20 32.5 str 355-385

V vol 20 32 str 390-420

Z vol 19.75 32 str 425-455

 

Crush quotes:

OPEN            CLOSE

MCH       99-99.5         97.5-99.5

MAY       80-80.5          79-81

JLY           71-72.5         71.5-73

AUG       69.5-72         70-72.5

SEP         78-84.5          81-85

OCT        82-84              81-83

DEC        80-82              79.5-81.5

JAN        78-80              77-79

MCH6    77.5-80          77.5-79.5

MAY6    76-78              75-78

 

Crush and oil share players:

  • ABN sold 20 July crush at 72

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE