From The Floor- An Afternoon Recap 2/05/15

News:

 

CME Group announced yesterday they plan to close open outcry futures pits by July. Open outcry option pits will remain open.

 

December US trade data came out this morning

  • US Dec trade deficit $46.56 billion expecting a deficit of $38.5 billion vs. November deficit of $39.75 billion
  • US Dec exports -.8% vs. -1.1% in November
  • US Dec imports +2.2% vs. -1.8% in November
  • US Dec soybean exports 301.5 million bushels, as expected, vs. 254.9 MB a year ago
  • US Sept –Dec bean exports 1,125.9 million bushels vs. 931.5 million bushels a year ago
  • US December soymeal exports 1.360 million tons vs. 1.420 million tons a year ago
  • US Oct –Dec meal exports at 3.567 million tons vs. 3.714 million tons a year ago
  • US soybean oil exports at 234 million pounds vs. 321 million pounds a year ago
  • US Oct –Dec bean oil exports 624 million pounds vs. 521 million pounds a year ago

 

Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report came out this morning at -115 BCF expecting -119 BCF.

 

Philippines bought 93,000 tons of optional origin feed wheat for June-July shipment

 

Turkey bought 60,000 tons of optional origin durum wheat for Feb –March shipment

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 57.0 MMT (record) . This is the first estimate made by the exchange for this season . USDA estimated Argentina’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 55.0 MMT

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s ‘14/15 bean area at 20.4 MH unchanged from previous estimate

 

Brazilian crop tour reported larger than expected losses in the Goias, Brazil’s fourth largest soybean producing states, but good yields in other states were expected to compensate.

 

FAO estimated ‘14/15 global cereals output at 2.534 billion tons vs. previous estimate of 2.532 billion

 

FAO estimated 2015 global cereals ending stocks at 622.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 628.4 MMT

 

FAO estimated ‘14/15 global wheat output at 724.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 724.9 MMT

 

Oil World said Indonesia exported 20.9 MMT of palm oil between Jan –Nov 2014 vs. 19.7 MMT a year earlier.

 

Informa’s ‘15/16 global crop estimates

  • ‘15/16 global wheat crop estimated at 720.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 718.2 MMT and vs. ‘14/15 estimate of 722.5 MMT
  • ‘15/16 global corn crop estimated at 967.9 MMT vs. previous estimate of 965.6 MMT and vs. ‘14/15 estimate of 985.8 MMT
  • ‘15/16 global soybean crop estimated at 312.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 313.7 MMT and vs. ‘14/15 estimate of 314.7 MMT
  • ‘15/16 global sunseed crop estimated at 41.1 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. ‘14/15 estimate of 39.8 MMT
  • ‘15/16 global rapeseed crop estimated at 69.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 68.9 MMT and vs. ‘14/15 estimate of 72.0 MMT

 

USDA attaché in Canada ‘15/16 estimates

  • All wheat crop estimated at 30.0 MMT vs. ‘14/15 estimate of 29.3 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 record crop of 37.5 MMT
  • All wheat area estimated at 9.9 MH vs. ‘14/15 area of 9.5 MH and vs. ‘13/14 area of 10.4 MH
  • All wheat exports estimated at 21.2 MMT vs. ‘14/15 exports of 23.0 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 exports of 23.2 MMT
  • Corn production estimated at 12.2 MMT vs. ‘14/15 corn crop of 11.5 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 14.2 MMT
  • Corn imports estimated at 1.2 MMT vs. ‘14/15 imports of 1.5 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 imports of 500,000 tons

 

Egypt’s state grain buyer could soon announce tenders to buy wheat of U.S. origin only in order to make use of a $100 million credit line made available to it by the United States. – Reuters

  • Talk/reports Egypt could buy as much as 6 cargoes of US SRW wheat

 

Russia’s Ag Min said Russia would not export more than 28.0 MMT of grain in ‘15/16

 

Ukraine’s Ag min said Ukraine exported 21.9 MMT of grain between July 1st –Feb 5th unchanged from a year ago

 

March bean oil closed below the 20 day moving average of 3180. March bean oil settled at 3171.

 

March corn closed above the 20 day moving average of 384 ¼ . March corn settled at 385 ¼ .

 

March Minneapolis wheat closed above the 20 day moving average of 577. March Minneapolis wheat settled at 578 ¾

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat bought 7,000
  • Corn bought 3,000
  • Beans bought 5,000
  • Meal sold 1,000
  • Bean oil bought 6,000

 

Open outcry option activity:

  • Marex bought 4,500 May bean 800 puts at 1 ½ . Yesterday they bought 7,000 May bean 800 puts at 1- 1 ½ , open interest went down by 6,200 yesterday.
  • XFA bought 1,000 May bean 800 puts at 1 ½ .
  • Rosenthal bought 800 March bean 970-950 put spreads at 6 1/8 – 6 3/8
  • FI bought 800 July bean 940 puts sold 800 July bean 1100 calls at 13 ¾ -13 7/8 debit and bought 432 July bean futures at 990
  • Goldman Sachs sold 2,000 May bean 960 puts at 24 ¼ -24 ½
  • Rosenthal bought 1,200 March bean 990 puts at 20-21 ½
  • ADM bought 1,000 March corn 375 puts at 2 7/8
  • JP Morgan bought 1,500 May corn 400 calls and sold 1,000 May corn 390 calls at 3 7/8 debit
  • ICAP bought 500 March corn 370 puts at 2 tied to futures at 384
  • Jefferies bought 1,500 May wheat 550-600 call spreads at 8 ¾ tied to futures at 518 ¾ .
  • Jefferies sold 1,000 March wheat 560 calls at 3 ½
  • FI bought 1,000 May wheat 500 puts at 14 tied to futures at 528
  • Rand bought 500 May meal 260 puts at 1.00
  • Rand sold 500 May meal 300 puts at 5.25
  • JP Morgan sold 1,000 May bean oil 29 puts at 27-30
  • FI bought 2,000 March bean oil 34 calls at 7-9
  • RJO sold 300 May bean oil 33.5 calls at 55
  • Jefferies bought 300 May bean oil 32-24 call spreads and sold 300 May bean oil 29.5 puts at 30 debit

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • January US unemployment report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins tomorrow and ends Thursday February 12th, they will be rolling long March positions into May.
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out on Tuesday Feb 10thwith their January palm oil data report. Based on a Reuters survey expecting
    • January palm oil exports average estimate is 1.29 MMT vs. December exports of 1.52 MMT
    • January palm oil stocks average estimate is 1.29 MMT vs. 2.01 MMT in December
    • January palm oil output average estimate is 1.19 MMT vs. 1.36 MMT in December
  • USDA supply and demand and crop production report comes out Tuesday Feb 10 at 11 am CST . I will email out estimates for the report today.
  • CONAB comes out Thursday Feb 12thwith their Brazilian crop estimate updates. Previous estimates were
    • ‘14/15 Brazilian bean crop estimated at 95.9 MMT
    • ‘14/15 Brazilian bean exports estimated at 49.6 MMT
    • ‘14/15 Brazilian corn crop estimated at 79.1 MMT
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports. The report was discontinued by the Census Bureau in 2011. First report is scheduled to come out Feb 20th during the Agricultural Outlook Forum

 

Estimates for Tuesday’s USDA report.

 

Estimates for ‘14/15 US ending stocks

  • Wheat (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is .689 BB, range of estimates are .595 – .730 BB. USDA January estimate was .687 BB.
  • Corn (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is 1.879 BB, range of estimates are 1.817– 2.002 BB. USDA January estimate was 1.877 BB
  • Beans (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is .398 BB, range of estimates are .356 – .440 BB. USDA January estimate was .410 BB

 

Estimates for ‘14/15 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (18 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is 195.83 MMT, range of estimates are 191.40 -197.00 MMT. USDA January estimate was 196.00 MMT
  • Corn (17 analysts surveyed) –  average estimate is 189.28 MMT, range of estimates are 187.60 – 190.93 MMT. USDA January estimate was 189.15 MMT
  • Beans (18 analysts surveyed) –  average estimate is 90.44 MMT, range of estimates are 88.75 – 91.53 MMT. USDA January estimate was 90.78 MMT

 

Estimates for ‘14/15 South American crop estimates

  • Argentine corn production (21 analysts surveyed) –  average estimate 22.54 MMT , range of estimates are 21.20-28.50 MMT and USDA January estimate was 22.0 MMT
  • Argentine bean production (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 55.58 MMT, range of estimates are 54.40 -59.50 MMT and USDA January estimate was 55.0 MMT
  • Brazilian corn production (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 74.56 MMT, range of estimates are 72.80-76.00 MMT and USDA January estimate was 75.0 MMT
  • Brazilian beans production (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 94.67 MMT, range of estimates are 93.00 – 96.50 MMT and USDA January estimate was 95.50 MMT

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn:

H vol 22 385 str 13 ¼-14

J vol 20 ½ 390 str 23 ¼ -24

K vol 22 390 str 31 ½ -32 ¼

N vol 24 400 str 47 ½ -48 ½

U vol 26 ¼ 410 str 62 ¾-63 ¾

Z vol 24 ¼ 420 str 71 ¼ -72

 

Beans:

H vol 18 ½ 980 str 29 ½ -31

J vol 18 ½ 980 str 53 ½ -54 ½

K vol 19 ½ 980 str 70 ½-72

N vol 20 ¼ 980 str 98-100

X vol 19 ½ 960 str 124-126

 

Wheat:

H vol 28 530 str 24-26

J vol 27 ¼ 530 str 42-44

K vol 27 530 str 52-54

N vol 27 ¼ 530 str 70-72

U vol 27 ¼ 530 str 84-87

Z vol 25 ½ 550 str 97-100

 

KC wheat:

H vol 26 565 str 24 ½-26 ½

J vol 25 ½ 565 str 41 ½ -44 ½

K vol 24 ¼ 565 str 49 ½ -53 ½

N vol 25 570 str 68 ½-73 ½

U vol 25 580 str 81 ½-87 ½

 

Minneapolis wheat:

H vol 23 ½ 580 str 23-25

K vol 23 580 str 47-51

N vol 23 ¾ 590 str 65-70

U vol 24 ¼ 600 str 80-86

Z vol 23 ¾ 610 str 95-101

 

Meal:

H vol 25.5 330 str 13-15

J vol 25 330 str 22.5-24.5

K vol 24.75 330 str 28.5-30.5

N vol 23.5 320 str 36-38

Q vol 22.75 320 str 38-40

U vol 22.25 320 str 39.5-41.5

V vol 21.25 320 str 41-43

Z vol 20 320 str 43-45

 

Bean oil:

H vol 21 32 str 105-120

J vol 20.5 30 str 185-200

K vol 20.25 32 str 230-245

N vol 20.25 32 str 310-325

Q vol 20.25 32 str 340-360

U vol 20 32 str 355-380

V vol 20 32 str 400-430

Z vol 20 32 str 425-455

 

Crush quotes:

OPEN           CLOSE

MCH            99-1.00         96-97

MAY             79-79.5        78.5-79.5

JLY                 71-71.5        70-72

AUG              69.5-70        70-71.5

SEP                79-83            79-83

OCT               81.5-83.5      82-84

DEC               79-80             79-80

JAN               78-80             77-80

MCH6          77-80              77-80

MAY6          75-78               75-78

 

Crush and oil share players:

  • No crush pit players today
  • No oil share pit players today

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE