From The Floor- An Afternoon Recap 2/03/15

News:

 

Egypt GASC bought 300,000 tons of wheat for March shipment, 120,000 tons from France and 180,000 tons from Romania.

 

Informa came out with world crop estimates this morning

  • ’14.15 Brazilian bean crop estimated at 93.5 MMT  vs. previous estimate of 93.5 MMT
  • ’14.15 Brazilian corn crop estimated at 72.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 72.25 MMT
  • ’14.15 Argentina bean crop estimated at 57.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 55.5 MMT
  • ’14.15 Argentina corn crop estimated at 23.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 22.0 MMT
  • Informa said Brazilian bean harvest is 7% complete unchanged from a year ago and vs. 4% average
  • Informa said Mato Grosso bean harvest is 10-15% complete
  • ’14.15 South Africa corn crop estimated at 13.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 13.5 MMT
  •  ’14.15 Kazakhstan what crop estimated at 13.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 12.6 MMT
  • ’14.15 Canadian wheat crop estimated at 29.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 28.0 MMT
  • ’14.15 China wheat crop estimated at 125.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 122.5 MMT
  • ’14.15 China bean crop estimated at 11.9 MMT vs. previous estimate of 12.25 MMT
  • ’14.15 China canola production estimated at 16.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 16.3 MMT

 

Hearing Pakistan bought 30,000 South American origin bean oil this week

 

Turkey seeks 60,000 tons of durum wheat.

 

Philippines seek 80,000 tons of optional origin feed wheat.

 

ADM estimated 2015 US ethanol exports at about 800 million gallons unchanged from 2014.

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘14/15 Brazilian bean crop at 93.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘14/15 Brazilian corn crop at 74.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘14/15 Argentine bean crop at 56.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘14/15 Argentine corn crop at 22.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 21.0 MMT

 

Secretary of Agriculture in Parana estimated Parana’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 16.63 MMT vs. previous estimate of 17.06 MMT and up 14% from ‘13/14 crop

 

Secretary of Agriculture in Parana said Parana farmers have sold 12% of their ‘13/14 bean crop vs. 10% a month ago

 

Oil World estimated ‘15/16 global rapeseed exports at 14.6 MMT vs. ‘14/15 export estimate of 14.42 MMT

 

USDA attaché in Indonesia estimated Indonesia’s ‘14/15 palm oil output at 33.0 MMT vs. ‘13/14 output of 30.5 MMT

 

USDA attaché in Indonesia estimated Indonesia’s ‘14/15 palm oil exports at 22.5 MMT vs. 21.718 MMT in ‘13/14

 

Russia bought 7,830 tons of intervention grains, making the total since September 30th at 348,010 tons. Russian government plans to buy 5.0 MMT of grain.

 

TASS news agency said Russian Ag Min will present proposal for adjusting wheat export duty and purchase prices for grain within one to two weeks.

 

Kazakhstan Ag min said Kazakhstan exported 3.96 MMT of grain between July 1st – January 30th vs. 5.28 MMT a year ago

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min estimated Kazakhstan’s ‘14/15 grain exports at 7.0 MMT

 

Yesterday afternoon state by state monthly wheat conditions report came out

  • Kansas winter wheat ratings
    • 46% good to excellent vs. 49% in December
    • 41% fair vs. 42% in December
    • 13% poor to very poor vs. 9% in December
  • Oklahoma winter wheat ratings
    • 41% good to excellent vs. 54% in December
    • 46% fair vs. 34% in December
    • 13% poor to very poor vs. 12% in December
  • Texas winter wheat ratings
    • 42% good to excellent unchanged from previous
    • 42% fair vs. 41% previously
    • 16% poor to very poor vs. 17% previously
  • Illinois winter wheat ratings
    • 49% good to excellent vs. 24% in December
    • 38% fair vs. 68% in December
    • 13% poor to very poor vs. 8% in December
  • Kentucky winter wheat ratings
    • 78% good to excellent vs. 82% in December
    • 18% fair vs. 15% in December
    • 4% poor to very poor vs. 3% in December

 

Mostly favorable South American weather forecasts.

 

March corn closed above the 100 day moving average of 378 ½. March corn settled at 385 ¾

 

March soymeal closed above the 20 day moving average of 336.40. March meal settled at 340.60

 

March meal closed above the 100 day moving average of 335.80. March meal settled at 340.60

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat bought 6,000
  • Corn bought 22,000
  • Beans bought 14,000
  • Meal bought 4,000
  • Bean oil bought 3,000

 

Open outcry option activity:

Corn:

Jefferies bot 3000 U 400 puts/bot 1380 CU

Jefferies sold 1400 H 360 puts/sold 152 CH

JPM sold 1000 H 360 puts

JPM sold 500 H 390 calls

JPM bot 1000 K 360 puts

ICAP sold 1500 Z 350 puts

ICAP sold 1000 K 390 calls

Tenco sold 1000 N’16 350 puts/sold 200 CN’16

ADM bot 1000 N 410 calls/sold 1000 N 370 puts

ABN sold 1000 Z 350 puts

Rosenthal bot 500 Z 380 puts

 

Beans:

RJO bot 2000 K 860 puts

RJO bot 1500 N 980 puts/sold 1000 N 1020 puts

RJO bot 500 K 950-910 put spreads/bot 55 SK

RJO bot 1500 K 950-940 put spreads

Rand sold 500 K 1000-980 put spreads

Marex bot 900 H 920 puts/1050 call strangles

ADM bot 1000 H 960 puts

Macquarie bot 600 H 1000 calls/sold 288 SH

ABN bot 1000 N 1020-1100 call spreads

Jefferies sold 500 H 950 puts/sold 120 SH

Jefferies bot 500 K 950 puts/sold 1000 K 900 puts/sold 25 SK

ICAP bot 500 K 1000 calls

ICAP sold 500 H 1010 puts

 

Wheat:

ICAP bot 800 K 560 calls/sold 800 K 450 puts

Tenco bot 600 H 500 puts

 

Oil:

RJO sold 1500 H 31puts/sold 869 BOH

FCS sold 800 H 31-32 call spreads

Tenco bot 1100 K 30 calls

Bunge sold 500 N 31 puts

Tenco sold 500 K 31 puts

ABN sold 300 K 33 ½ calls

Jefferies sold 300 N 29 puts

Drax sold 300 K 32 puts

RJO bot 700 N 37 calls

 

Meal:

TJM sold 600 K 350-360 call spreads

Rosenthal sold 800 H 340-350 call spreads

New Edge sold 300 H 300 puts

Bache bot 200 H 310 puts

FCS bot 200 H 340-350 call spreads

RJO sold 200 week 4 325 puts

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST.
  • China’s domestic wheat auction continues. China is auctioning 1.13 MMT of wheat from reserves today through Thursday
  • Surveyor Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s January palm oil exports tomorrow.
  • Malaysia returns from holiday tomorrow.
  • Stats Canada December 31st, 2014 stocks report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST. Expecting
    • All wheat stocks average estimate 25.0 MMT vs. 28.68 MMT in 2013
    • Durum average estimate 4.2 MMT vs. 5.239 MMT in 2013
    • Canola average estimate 10.7 MMT vs. 12.421 MMT in 2013
    • Oats average estimate 2.5 MMT vs. 2.848 MMT in 2013
    • Barley average estimate 4.9 MMT vs. 6.75 MMT in 2013
    • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST. Expecting
      • Crude a build of 3.75 MB
      • Gas unchanged
      • Distillates a draw of 1.15 MB
      • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn:

H vol 25 385 str 16 ¾-17 ¾

J vol 22 395 str 26-26 ½

K vol 23 390 str 33 ¾-34 ¾

N vol 24 ¾ 400 str 49 ½-50

U vol 27 410 str 64-65

Z vol 24 ¾ 420 str 72 ½-73 ½

 

Beans:

H vol 21 990 str 35 ½-37

J vol 19 ½ 1000 str 57 ½-59

K vol 20 ½ 1000 str 74 ½-76

N vol 20 ¾ 1000 str 102 ½ -104 ½

X vol 19 ½ 980 str 127-129

 

Wheat:

H vol 29 510 str 25-27

J vol 26 ½ 520 str 41-43

K vol 26 ½ 520 str 50-53

N vol 26 ¾ 520 str 68-70

U vol 26 ¾ 530 str 82-85

Z vol 25 540 str 94-98

 

KC wheat:

H vol 26 540 str 25-27

J vol 25 540 str 41-44

K vol 24 ½ 540 str 50-52

N vol 25 560 str 68-70

U vol 25 580 str 82-86

Z vol 23 ¼ 600 str 94-102

 

Minneapolis wheat:

H vol 24 580 str 24-27

K vol 21 ¾ 580 str 45-49

N vol 23 590 str 64-69

U vol 23 ½ 590 str 76-82

Z vol 23 600 str 91-97

 

Meal:

H vol 25 340 str 15-17

J vol 24.5 340 str 23.5-25

K vol 24.25 340 str 30.5-32

N vol 23.25 330 str 39-41

Q vol 22.5 330 str 40-43

U vol 21.5 320 str 42-45

Z vol 20 320 str 45.5-48

 

Bean oil:

H vol 21.5 31 str 110-120

J vol 20.5 31 str 185-200

K vol 20.5 31 str 230-250

N vol 20 31.5 str 305-325

Q vol 20 31.5 str 330-360

U vol 19.75 32 str 350-380

Z vol 19.75 31 str 425-480

 

Crush quotes:

              Open                       Closes

MCH      97-98                     100.00 – 100.50

MAY      78-79                     79.50 – 80.00

JLY          70-71                     69.50 – 70.00

AUG       68-70                    68.50 – 70.00

SEP         73-82                     74.00 – 82.00

OCT        78.5-82                 80.00 – 82.00

DEC        76.5-79                 77.00 – 79.00

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE