From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 11/13/15

News:

Weekly COT supplemental report did not come out this afternoon, delayed due to US holiday on Wednesday.  Report will come out Monday at 230 pm CST. Our current estimates for fund positions are

  • Wheat short 77,726 contacts
  • Corn short 75,731 contracts
  • Soybeans short 63,299 contracts
  • Soy Meal short 8,017 contracts
  • Bean oil short 10,893 contracts

FSA updated US acreage data at 11 am CST today , Data is as of November 2nd

  • 2015 planted acres including failed

o   Corn estimated at 85.033 MA vs. October  estimate of 84.811 MA

o   Bean estimated at 81.277 MA vs. October estimate of 81.079 MA

o   Wheat estimated at 52.673 MA vs. October estimate of 52.507 MA

  • 2015 prevented planting

o   Corn estimated at 2.366 MA vs. October estimate of 2.362 MA

o   Bean estimated at 2.231 MA vs. October estimate of 2.227 MA

o   Wheat estimated at .698 MA vs. October estimate of .697 MA  

Informa came out today at 1030 with their 2016 US acreage estimate updates

  • 2016 US corn planted area estimated at  90.1  MA vs. previous estimate of 90.8 MA
  • 2016 US soybean planted area estimated at 85.3 MA vs. previous estimate of 83.9 MA
  • 2016 US winter wheat planted area estimated at 38.7 MA
  • 2016 US cotton planted area estimated at 9.6 MA

November futures expired today.

  • November beans expired at $8.59 down 10 ¼ cents on the day

December wheat down 5.3% on week

Jan beans down 1.3% on week

Dec corn down 4.0% on week

Algeria bought 550,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat for January shipment. Analysts said they probably bought French wheat.

AgRural said 60% of Brazil’s bean crop has been planted vs. 47% a week ago and vs. 71% five year average

IMEA said Mato Grosso, Brazil’s soybean planting is 83.7% complete vs. 60.7% complete a week ago and about unchanged from a year ago

FranceAgriMer said as of November 9th French corn crop is 92% harvested vs. 86% a week ago and vs. 88% a year ago

FranceAgriMer said as of November 9th French soft wheat planting was 95% complete vs. 90% a week ago and vs. 92% a year ago

FranceAgriMer said as of November 9th French winter wheat crop is 97% in good condition

FranceAgriMer said as of November 9th French winter barley crop is 96% in good condition

COPA said for the week ending November 11th Canadian crushers crushed 158,783 tons of canola , down .3% from the week before

COPA said for the week ending November 11th Canadian crushers crushed 37,632 tons of soybeans, down 3.6% from the week before

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat sold 2,000
  • Corn sold 7,000
  • Beans sold 3,000
  • Meal sold 3,000
  • Bean oil sold 3,000

Upcoming reports/events:

  • G20 summit in Antalya Turkey will take place on Sunday and Monday
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek to estimate Malaysia’s Nov 1-15th palm oil exports on Monday
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • NOPA October crush report comes out on Monday at 11 am CST . Estimates for NOPA are

o   Crush average estimate is 161.002 MB , range of estimates are 158.5-164.8 MB. NOPA’s September soybean crush was 126.704 MB and October 2014 soybean crush was 157.960 MB.

o   Bean oil stocks average estimate is 1.444 billion pounds , range of estimates are 1.409-1.467 billion pounds. NOPA’s September bean oil stocks were 1.355 billion pounds and October 2014 bean oil stocks were 966.062 million pounds

o   No estimates are given for meal exports. NOPA’s September meal exports were 502,320 tons and October 2014 soymeal exports were 707,934 tons

  • Weekly COT report comes out on Monday at 230 pm CST , delayed due to US holiday
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST

Option players:

  • Macquarie bought 3,500 Feb bean 920 calls at 5 ¾ -6 tied to March futures at 856
  • FI bought 1,000 Jan bean 760 puts at 7/8
  • Rosenthal sold 1,000 March bean 860-820 puts 16 5/8 -16 ¾
  • FI bought 500 Dec soybean 850-830 put spreads at 3 3/8
  • FI bought 800 Dec corn 360 straddles at 6 ¾- 7
  • Macquarie sold 1,000 March corn 390 puts at 30 1/8
  • ICAP sold 500 Jan wheat 510c /490 p strangles at 18 ¾ -18 7/8
  • ABN sold 500 Jan wheat 480 puts at 6 5/8 -6 ¾ tied to March futures at 495
  • Macquarie sold 400 May wheat 500 calls at 29 ¾ tied to May futures at 496 ½
  • ICAP bought 400 May wheat 500 calls at 29 ¾ tied to May futures at 496 ½
  • Rand bought 3,000 Jan meal 280 puts and sold 600 Jan soymeal 290 straddles at .50 -1.00 debit
  • Drax sold 400 Dec bean oil 27-2550 put spreads 21

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

Corn:

Z15 360 6.75 / 7.25 18.00%

F16 370 16.50 / 17.50 17.00%

G16 370 25 / 26 19.50%

H16 370 30.50 / 31 20.00%

K16 370 39.50 / 40.50 20.25%

N16 380 50 / 51 21.25%

U16 380 60.50 / 62 22.75%

Z16  390 67 / 68 21.50%

Z17 400 85 / 89 19.75%

Beans:

Z15 860 14 / 16 16.00%

F16 860 34 / 36 15.50%

H16 860 58 / 60 16.50%

K16 860 73 / 75 16.50%

N16 860 88 / 91 16.50%

U16 880 102 / 106 16.50%

X16 880 110 / 115 16.50%

Wheat:

Z15 500 10 / 11.50 17.50%

F16 500 26.50 / 27.50 20.00%

H16 500 46 / 47.50 22.75%

K16 500 64 / 67 24.00%

N16 500 75.50 / 78 24.50%

KC Wheat:

Z15 460 9 / 11 18.00%

F16 480 25 / 26 20.50%

H16 480 42.50 / 44 22.50%

K16 490 58 / 61 23.50%

N16 500 72.50 / 74.50 24.00%

Minneapolis wheat:

Z15 505 8.50 / 10.50 18.00%

H16 510 40 / 44  20.00%

K16 520 58 / 62 22.00%

N16 530 72 / 77 23.00%

Meal:

Z15 290 5.0 / 6.0 16.50%

F16 290 12.5 / 13.5 16.75%

H16 290 20.5 / 21.5 17.50%

K16 290 26.5 / 27.5 17.75%

N16 290 32.0 / 33.0 18.00%

Q16 290 34.0 / 36.0 18.00%

U16 290 36.0 / 38.0 18.00%

V16 290 37.0 / 39.0 17.50%

Z16 290 39.5 / 41.5 17.00%

Bean oil:

Z15 27.0 50 / 70 20.00%

F16 27.5 140 / 160 20.50%

H16 27.5 225 / 245 20.50%

K16 28.0 290 / 310 20.50%

N16 28.0 340 / 370 20.50%

Q16 28.0 360 / 400 20.50%

U16 28.0 380 / 420 20.25%

V16 28.0 395 / 435 20.00%

Z16 28.0 430 / 470 19.75%

Opening crush quotes:

DEC

68.75

76.50

JAN

83.50

83.75

MCH

84.50

85.25

MAY

82.50

83.25

JULY

81.50

82.75

AUG

82.25

84.50

SEP

84.00

85.00

XUU6

79.00

81.50

DEC16

82.50

84.00

 

   

Closing crush quotes:

FZZ

77.00

77.50

JAN

82.00

82.50

MCH

83.00

83.50

MAY

82.00

82.50

JULY

82.00

82.50

AUG

83.00

84.00

SEP

80.00

81.00

OCT16

79.50

80.00

DEC16

82.00

82.50

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE