From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 11/12/15

News:

Egypt GASC canceled tender to buy bean oil and sunflower oil for December shipment , due to high prices

From Brazilian contact today, talk Brazilian traders are working to buy back some shorts because it is too hot and dry in Mato Grosso , some replanting will be necessary.

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange – weekly Argentina crop progress report

  • Soybean planting is 20% complete , vs. 8.7% complete a week ago , and vs. 16.8% complete a year ago
  • Estimated Argentina’s soybean planting area at 19.8 MH
  • Corn planting is 36.5% complete vs. 35.9% complete a week ago
  • Estimated Argentina’s corn planting area at 2.72 MH , unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 3.4 MH in ‘14/15
  • Sunflower planting is 60.8% complete vs. 49.9% a week ago and vs. 68.3% a year ago
  • Estimated Argentina’s sunflower area at 1.45 MH , unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 1.3 MH in ‘14/15
  • Wheat harvest is 7.1% complete vs. 4.5% a week ago
  • Estimated Argentina’s wheat crop at 9.5 MMT , unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 11.75 MMT in ’14/15

NOPA October crush report comes out on Monday at 11 am CST . Estimates for NOPA are

  • Crush average estimate is 161.002 MB , range of estimates are 158.5-164.8 MB. NOPA’s September soybean crush was 126.704 MB and October 2014 soybean crush was 157.960 MB.
  • Bean oil stocks average estimate is 1.444 billion pounds , range of estimates are 1.409-1.467 billion pounds. NOPA’s September bean oil stocks were 1.355 billion pounds and October 2014 bean oil stocks were 966.062 million pounds
  • No estimates are given for meal exports. NOPA’s September meal exports were 502,320 tons and October 2014 soymeal exports were 707,934 tons

Jordan bought 100,000 tons of optional origin wheat for January shipment

Jordan seeks 100,000 tons of optional origin barley for April shipment

US government weather forecaster CPC said that the El Nino weather phenomenon under way would likely peak during the Northern Hemisphere winter of ‘15/16 and taper off to neutral in late spring or early summer 2016

Ukraine’s grain harvest as of November 1st totaled 56.1 MMT down 2.1% from a year ago

Ukraine’s sunflower seed harvest as of November 1st totaled 11.1 MMT down 11% from a year ago

FranceAgriMer estimated France’s ‘15/16 soft wheat stocks at 5.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 4.8 MMT        

FranceAgriMer estimated France’s ‘15/16 soft wheat exports outside the EU at 11.5 MMT vs. ‘14/15 exports of 11.4 MMT

FranceAgriMer estimated France’s ‘15/16 barley stocks at 2.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 1.7 MMT

FranceAgriMer estimated France’s ‘15/16 corn stocks at 2.3 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

FranceAgriMer estimated France’s ‘15/16 corn crop at 13.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

CGG Trading said Brazilian farmers have already sold 45% of their ‘15/16 corn crop , record for this time of year

CGG Trading said Brazilian farmers have already sold 50% of their ‘15/16 bean crop

CGG Trading estimated Brazil’s ‘15/16 bean crop at 98-100 MMT

Iran stops wheat imports until March 2016 due to high domestic production

Iran plans to export 300,000 tons of durum wheat by March .

Weekly DOE energy inventory report came out today at 10 am CST

  • Crude a build of 4.22  million barrels , expecting a build of 1.3 million barrels
  • Gas a draw of 2.10 million barrels , expecting a draw of 1.0 million barrels
  • Distillates a build of 352,000 barrels, expecting a draw of 1.0 million barrels

Weekly US ethanol plant production report came out today at 10 am CST

  • Weekly US ethanol output up 1.3% BPD to 982,000 BPD
  • Weekly US ethanol stocks up .4% BBLS to 18.9 MB

Today was the last day of the Goldman Sachs / UBS roll. They have been rolling long December corn and wheat positions to March.

  • GS / UBS had already rolled their long December bean oil and soy meal positions to January during the November soybean roll.

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat bought 3,000
  • Corn sold 2,000
  • Beans bought 2,000
  • Meal sold 2,000
  • Bean oil bought 2,000

Upcoming reports/events:

  • India returns from two day holiday tomorrow
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST.  Expecting

o   Wheat 150-350,000 tons

o   Corn 450-650,000 tons

o   Beans 600,000 -1.0 million tons

o   Meal 150-350,000 tons

o   Bean oil 10-40,000 tons

  • Weekly Nat Gas storage report will come out tomorrow at 930 am CST , expecting +52 BCF
  • Informa comes out tomorrow at 1030 am CST with their updated US 2016 acreage estimates. Previous estimates from Informa were

o   2016 US corn planted area previously estimated at 90.8 million acres

o   2016 US soybean planted area previously estimated at 83.9 million acres

o   2016 US all wheat planted area previously estimated at 54.0 million acres

  • November beans and rice expire tomorrow at noon CST
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • G20 summit in Antalya Turkey will take place on Sunday and Monday
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek to estimate Malaysia’s Nov 1-15th palm oil exports on Monday

Option players:

  • TJM sold 2,000 March bean 760-780 put spreads at 1 5/8-2 1/8
  • Macquarie bought 500 Jan bean 840 puts at 8 5/8 tied to Jan futures at 864
  • RJO bought 2,000 May/July corn CSO -5 even call spreads at 1 3/8
  • TJM sold 2,500 March corn 330-340 put spreads at 1 7/8 -2
  • FI bought 1,000 Jan corn 375 calls and sold 1,000 Jan corn 350 puts at 2 7/8 debit tied to March futures at 367
  • Rand bought 2,000 Dec corn 350 puts at 7/8
  • Rand bought 1,000 Dec corn 355 puts at 1 ½ -1 5/8
  • TJM bought 1,000 March corn 360 puts at 12 ¼ tied to March futures at 367
  • ICAP bought 1,000 March corn 370 calls at 15 tied to March futures at 368 ½ 
  • Drax sold 1,500 March corn 390 c / 340 p strangles at 12 ½ -12 5/8
  • RJO bought 500 Dec wheat 525 calls at a ½
  • Macquarie sold 300 May wheat 500 straddles at 64 tied to May futures 502
  • Macquarie sold 300 Dec wheat 510 straddles at 15 ¾ tied to Dec futures at 499
  • RJO sold 500 March meal 280 puts at 5.50-5.75
  • EDF Mann bought 300 May meal 290
  • TJM bought 300 March meal 280-270-260-250 put condors at 2.00 debit
  • TJM sold 200 March meal 260 puts at 1.60 tied to March futures at 291.00
  • Rand sold 300 March bean oil 30 calls at 50

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

Corn:

Z15 360 7 / 8 17.50%

F16 370 16.50 / 17.50 16.75%

G16 370 25.25 / 26.25 19.75%

H16 370 30.25 / 31 20.00%

K16 370 40 / 40.50 20.25%

N16 380 50.25 / 51.25 21.25%

U16 380 61.50 / 63 23.00%

Z16 390 67.50 / 69 21.75%

Z17 400 86 / 90 19.75%

Beans:

Z15 860 15 / 17 15.50%

F16 860 34 / 36 15.00%

H16 860 57 / 59 16.25%

K16 860 72 / 74 16.00%

N16 880 88 / 91 16.25%

U16 880 102 / 106 16.50%

X16 880 110 / 115 16.50%

Wheat:

Z15 500 12 / 13 19.75%

F16 500 28.50 / 30 21.75%

H16 500 47.50 / 49.50 23.25%

K16 500 64.50 / 67 24.50%

N16 500 77 / 80 25.00%

KC Wheat:

Z15 460 13 / 15 19.00%

F16 480 25 / 27 21.00%

H16 480 45 / 48 22.50%

K16 490 60 / 63 23.50%

N16 500 75 / 77 24.00%

Minneapolis wheat:

Z15 505 11 / 13 19.00%

H16 510 40 / 44 20.00%

K16 520 58 / 62 22.00%

N16 530 72 / 77 23.00%

Meal:

Z15 290 5.5 / 6.5 17.50%

F16 290 12.0 / 13.0 16.00%

H16 290 20.5 / 21.5 17.50%

K16 290 26.5 / 27.5 17.50%

N16 290 32.0 / 33.0 17.75%

Q16 290 34.0 / 36.0 18.00%

U16 290 36.0 / 38.0 18.00%

V16 290 37.0 / 39.0 17.50%

Z16 290 39.5 / 41.5 17.00%

Bean oil:

Z15 27.5 60 / 80 20.50%

F16 27.5 145 / 165 20.50%

H16 28.0 230 / 250 20.50%

K16 28.0 295 / 315 20.50%

N16 28.0 340 / 370 20.50%

Q16 28.0 360 / 400 20.50%

U16 28.0 380 / 420 20.25%

V16 28.0 395 / 435 20.00%

Z16 28.0 430 / 470 19.75%

Crush quotes:

                Open                     Closes

Dec        71.0-77.0              70.5-77.0

JanDec  82.5-83.5             79.5-80.0

Jan         86.0-87.0              84.0-84.5             

Mch       87.5-88.5              84.0-84.5

May       84.0-85.0              82.5-83.0

July        82.5-84.0              81.5-82.5

Aug        84.0-86.0              82.5-84.5

Sep        85.0-92.0              82.0-92.0

Oct         80.5-83.0              79.5-81.5

Dec        79.0-91.0              81.5-90.0

NovSep81.0-84.0              80.0-82.0

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE