From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 11/04/15

Linn Group estimated 2015 US corn crop at 13.334 BB vs. previous estimate of 13.266 BB and vs. USDA October estimate of 13.555 BB

Linn Group estimated 2015 US bean crop at 3.942 BB vs. previous estimate of 3.898 BB and vs. USDA October estimate of 3.888 BB

Improving demand for US bean oil

Spot trading on Argentina’s main grains and oilseed market has slowed sharply as farmers hold on to their crops in the expectation this month’s presidential run-off vote will lead to a reduction in hefty export taxes

Oil World said soymeal prices may fall on more bean crushing

  • ‘15/16 soybean crushing estimated at 272.7 MMT up 5.9% from a year ago
  • ‘15/16 soymeal supplies expected to rise by 12.3 MMT

Oil World said global oilseed production expected to fall 2.2% in ‘15/16

Concerns about Australian wheat quality continues.

Speedwell weather service said Russia’s rainfall was 20% below normal in wheat areas

CWG said Kansas wheat crop to face stress next week as dryness returns

CME launched a new soybean option contract on Monday trade date 11-02-15. South American Short-Dated New Crop Soybean Options. These are short dated soybean options that go off the May soybean futures. The tradable months are Jan and March. As of today there is no open interest in these options. See attachment for details about the option.

Weekly DOE energy inventory report came out today at 930 am CST:

  • Crude – a build of 2.847 million barrels , expecting a build of 2.25 million barrels  
  • Gas – a draw of 1.30 million barrels , expecting a draw of 1.125 million barrels
  • Distillates – a draw of 3.30 million barrels , expecting a draw of 2.0 million barrels

Weekly US ethanol plant production report came out today at 930 am CST:

  • Weekly US ethanol output up 25,000 BPD to 969,000 BPD
  • Weekly US ethanol stocks up 501,000 BBLS to 18.77 MB

Today was the second day of the Deutsche Bank roll. Roll ends on Monday. They are rolling long Dec 2015 corn into September 2016.

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat bought 9,000
  • Corn sold 1,000
  • Beans bought 3,000
  • Meal bought 1,000
  • Bean oil bought 4,000

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Macquarie bought 1,000 Jan 800 puts at 1 ½
  • RJO bought 500 Jan bean 880 straddles at 40 ½ tied to Jan futures at 883
  • Dowd sold 500 Jan bean 900 puts bought 500 Dec bean 890 puts at 14 credit
  • JP Morgan bought 1,000 Dec corn 370 puts at 2 ½
  • JP Morgan bought 1,000 Dec corn 375 puts at 3 5/8 -3 7/8
  • TJM bought 3,000 March corn 360-350 put spreads and sold 3,000 March 380-370 put spreads at 1 ¾ credit
  • RJO bought 1,000 Jan corn 350 puts at 1 1/8 tied to March futures at 386
  • ICAP bought 1,000 Dec corn 385-395 call spreads at 2 3/8 -2 ½
  • ICAP bought 1,000 Dec corn 385 calls at 3 ¾
  • ADM bought 1,000 Dec corn 390 calls at 2 3/8
  • EDF Mann sold 500 Dec wheat 520-530 call spreads at 4 ¾ tied to Dec futures at 526
  • Macquarie bought 300 Dec wheat 520 calls at 8 1/8 tied to futures at 515 ½
  • Rand bought 500 March wheat 530 calls / 480 puts strangles at 31-31 ½
  • RJO bought 400 Dec meal 350 calls at .10
  • RJO sold 800 May bean oil 27.50p / 31.50c strangles at 190-195
  • Rosenthal bought 400 Jan bean oil 2850 calls at 110

Option players:

  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST . Expecting

o   Wheat 300-500,000 tons

o   Corn 450-650,000 tons

o   Beans 1.4-1.8 million tons

o   Meal 150-350,000 tons

o   Bean oil 10-80,000 tons

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST , expecting +57 BCF

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

Corn:

Z15 380 14 / 14.50 21.75%

F16 390 22 / 22.75 19.25%

G16 390 30.50 / 31.25 21.25%

H16 390 36 / 36.75 21.50%

K16 390 46.25 / 47.50 21.75%

N16 400 56.50 / 57.50 22.50%

U16 400 66.50 / 68 23.50%

Z16 410 73.50 / 75 22.25%

Z17 410 89 / 93 19.75%

Beans:

Z15 880 23 / 25 16.00%

F16 880 40 / 42 15.50%

H16 880 63 / 65 17.00%

K16 900 81 / 84 17.00%

N16 900 99 / 102 17.50%

U16 900 111 / 116 17.50%

X16 900 119 / 124 17.25%

Wheat:

Z15 530 21 / 23 23.50%

F16 530 35.50 / 37.50 22.50%

H16 530 55 / 58 24.00%

K16 530 72 / 74 24.50%

N16 530 85 / 87 25.00%

KC Wheat:

Z15 500 20 / 21 21.50%           

F16 510 32 / 34 21.50%

H16 510 52 / 54 24.00%

K16 520 67 / 70 24.25%

N16 530 79 / 83 24.50%

Minneapolis wheat

Z15 525 17 / 21 20.25%

H16 530 49 / 53 22.00%

K16 540 66 / 70 23.50%

N16 550 80 / 84 24.00%

Meal:

Z15 300 9.0 / 10.0 18.25%

F16 300 15.0 / 16.0 17.25%

H16 300 23.5 / 24.5 18.50%

K16 300 29.0 / 30.0 18.00%

N16 300 34.0 / 35.5 18.25%

Q16 300 35.5 / 37.5 18.00%

U16 300 38.0 / 40.0 18.00%

V16 300 38.5 / 40.5 17.75%

Z16 300 40.0 / 43.0 17.00%

Bean oil:

Z15 28.5 100 / 120 24.00%

F16 29.0 170 / 190 22.00%

H16 29.0 270 / 300 22.50%

K16 29.0 330 / 360 22.25%

N16 30.0 400 / 430 21.75%

Q16 30.0 415 / 445 21.50%

U16 30.0 430 / 460 21.00%

V16 30.0 450 / 490 20.75%

Z16 30.0 460 / 510 20.25%