From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 11/02/15

Algeria bought 350,000 tons of durum wheat for Dec-Jan shipment , likely from Canada.

Ethiopia bought 856,000 tons of milling wheat for Nov-Jan shipment

Reports of India buying South American bean oil continue.

Bunge CEO said China’s crush margins may be half than in the US

Pakistan starting to export soymeal, usually soymeal importers, after soybean imports rise over the past few months

  • Pakistan is in the market to export up to 50,000 tons of soymeal
  • Analysts estimated Pakistan’s ‘15/16 bean imports at 1.5+ MMT vs. ‘14/15 imports of 450,000 tons

US Wheat Associates estimated US ‘15/16 wheat exports at 24-25 million tons vs. USDA estimate of 23.13 MMT

Safras e Mercado said on Friday Brazil’s bean planting is 27.5% complete vs. 18.3% a week ago vs. 22% a year ago and vs. 40.8% average

Safras e Mercado said on Friday Mato Grosso bean planting is 38% complete vs. 21% a week ago vs. 35% a year ago and vs. 59% average

IMEA said Mato Grosso bean crop is 38% vs. 40.5% a year ago and vs. 59.5% average

Safras e Mercado said on Friday Goias bean planting is only 12% complete vs. 5% a week ago vs. 27% a year ago and vs. 41% average

USDA attaché in Ukraine estimated ‘15/16 winter wheat crop at 27.6 MMT , largest crop since 1990

USDA attaché in Ukraine estimated ‘15/16 corn production of 22.7 MMT down 20% from previous

USDA attaché in Ukraine estimated ‘16/17 winter crops being planted could be at risk due to unfavorable weather conditions and delayed planting

USDA attaché in Russia estimated Russia’s ‘15/16 grain crop at 102.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 97.0 MMT

  • Estimated wheat crop at 60.5 MMT vs. previous estimates of 56.0 MMT
  • Estimated barley production at 16.5 MMT , unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated corn production at 12.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 12.0 MMT

USDA attaché in Russia estimated Russia’s ‘15/16 grain exports at 31.0 MMT vs. ‘14/15 exports of 32.0 MMT (record)

Russia’s Ag Min said Russia exported 13.306 MMT of grain between July 1-Oct 28th down 9.2% from a year ago

Russia’s Grain Quality Centre said Russia exported 4.0 MMT of grain including 2.6 MMT of wheat in October

UkrAgroConsult said Ukraine’s 2016 winter rapeseed crop is in the worst condition in 7 years

  • As of October 30th 28.9% of Ukraine’s rapeseed crop was rated in good condition (lowest in 7 years) vs. 46.8% a year ago

Ukraine state weather forecasters said severe drought across half of Ukraine has hit winter planting and could sharply reduce Ukraine’s 2016 wheat crop , wheat production could fall as much as 20%

Indonesia’s Stats Bureau estimated 2015 corn production at 19.83 MMT vs. previous estimate of 20.67 MMT

Indonesia’s Stats Bureau estimated 2015 soybean production at 982,970 tons vs. previous estimate of 998,870 tons

Indonesia’s Stats Bureau estimated 2015 rice production at 74.99 MMT vs. previous estimate of 75.55 MMT

FranceAgriMer said on Friday French corn crop is 75% harvested vs. 58% a week earlier and vs. 52% a year ago

FranceAgriMer said on Friday French wheat planting is 78% complete vs. 58% a week earlier  and vs. 70% complete a year ago

Iran plans to export wheat for the first time in a decade.

  • Expected to export 300,000 tons of durum wheat in ‘15/16

Drought in South Africa is raising concerns about corn plantings

EIA said on Friday that August US biodiesel production was 123 million gallons vs. July US biodiesel production of 121.0 million gallons

EIA said on Friday that 464 million lbs. of bean oil was used for biodiesel production in August vs. 446 million lbs. used in July

EPA has sent its latest proposal on blending targets for the country’s renewable fuels program to the White House for review.

  • The move is one of the last formal hurdles for the EPA before it finalizes the program ahead of the November 30th deadline

Weekly US export inspections report came out today at 10 am CST.

  • Wheat at 170,993 tons, expecting 275-400,000 tons
  • Corn at 477,438 tons, expecting 475-625,000 tons
  • Beans at 2.56 million tons, expecting 1.9-2.3 million tons

USDA September Census crush report came out this afternoon at 2 pm CST

  • Census September US soybean crush was 4.04 million tons vs. August census crush of 4.38 million tons
  • Census September US bean oil stocks were 1.481 billion lbs. vs. August US bean oil stocks of 1.297 billion lbs.
  • Census September US soy cake and meal stocks were 240,755 tons vs. August stocks of 305,920 tons

USDA September ethanol production report came out this afternoon at 2 pm CST

  • September corn used for ethanol was 427.5 million bushels vs. 445.2 million bushels in August
  • September DDGS production was 1.907 million tons vs. 1.943 million tons in August

FC Stone comes out this afternoon about 3 pm CST with their updated 2015 US crop estimates. Previous estimates were

  • 2015 US bean crop previously estimated at 3.919 BB vs. USDA October estimate of 3.888 BB
  • 2015 US bean crop previously estimated at 46.9 BPA vs. USDA October estimate of 47.2 BPA
  • 2015 US corn crop previously estimated at 13.541 BB vs. USDA October estimate of 13.555 BB
  • 2015 US corn yield previously estimated at 167.0 BPA vs. USDA October estimate of 168.0 BPA

Effective today, CBOT has reset price limits for grain and oilseed futures. New price limits are

  • Corn – .25 cents per bushel vs. .30 cents currently
  • Soybeans – .60 cents per bushel vs. .70 cents currently
  • Chicago wheat – .35 cents per bushel vs. .40 cents currently
  • KC wheat – .35 cents per bushel vs. .40 cents currently
  • Bean oil – 200 tics unchanged from current limit
  • Soy meal – $20 per ton vs. $25 currently
  • Oats – .20 cents per bushel unchanged from current limit
  • Rice – .90 cents vs. .75 cents currently

Today was the last day of the Rogers roll. They have been rolling long December bean oil and soy meal positions into January and have been rolling long Dec wheat and Dec corn positions to March.

Deutsche Bank roll starts tomorrow. Roll runs for five days. They will be rolling long Dec 2015 corn positions into Dec 2016 corn.

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat sold 8,000
  • Corn sold 8,000
  • Beans sold 5,000
  • Meal sold 2,000
  • Bean oil sold 4,000

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST.

o   Analysts expecting about 91-93% of the US soybean crop will be harvested

o   Analysts expecting about 84-87% of the US corn crop will be harvested

o   Analysts expecting winter wheat conditions to be about 50% good to excellent vs. 47% good to excellent a week ago

o   Analysts expecting winter wheat planting to be 88-90% complete

  • ADM to release third quarter financial results tomorrow
  • Informa comes out tomorrow at 1030 am CST with their 2015 US crop estimate updates . Previous estimates were

o   2015 US bean crop previously estimated at 3.878 BB vs. USDA October estimate of 3.888 BB

o   2015 US bean yield previously estimated at 47.2 BPA vs. USDA October estimate of 47.2 BPA

o   2015 US corn crop previously estimated at 13.561 BB vs. USDA October estimate of 13.555 BB

o   2015 US corn yield previously estimated at 168.4 BPA vs. USDA October estimate of 168.0 BPA

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • Linn Group will update their 2015 US crop estimates on Wednesday
  • USDA November crop production and supply and demand report comes out Tuesday November 10th at 11 am CST

Option players:

  • Drax bought 1,500 March bean 760 puts at 2 ½ tied to March futures at 885
  • Drax bought 500 March bean 840 p / 940 c strangles at 26 7/8 -27 tied to March futures at 883
  • ABN sold 500 July bean 840 puts at 23 ¼
  • TJM sold 4,000 March corn 360 puts at 6 ¾
  • TJM bought 2,000 March corn 320-380 put spreads at 13 3/8 -13 ½
  • TJM bought 1,000 March corn 340-380 put spreads at 11 ½
  • JP Morgan bought 1,000 Jan corn 390 calls at 8 ¾
  • RJO bought 1,000 Dec corn 370 puts at 3 ¾
  • RJO sold 1,000 Dec/March CSO corn +10 calls at 1 ½
  • FI bought 400 Dec wheat 500 puts and sold 400 Dec corn 390 puts at 2 ¼ – 2 5/8
  • RJO bought 700 Dec wheat 485 puts at 2 ¼
  • Rand bought 1,000 Jan wheat 510 calls sold 1,000 March wheat 470 p / 550 call strangles at 2 credit
  • ICAP bought 600 Dec wheat 510-490 put spreads at 6 ¾ -8 ¼
  • RJO bought 800 Dec meal 280 puts at .30
  • RJO bought 1,000 Dec meal 350 call at .15-.20
  • TJM sold 700 March meal 300-290 put spreads at 4.30
  • TJM sold 1,000 March meal 270 puts at 2.90
  • Rand sold 200 Dec bean oil 28 puts at 50
  • EDF Mann bought 300 March bean oil 30 calls at 93
  • RJO bought 400 Dec bean oil 30 calls at 11
  • Rosenthal sold 500 Jan bean oil 2850 straddles at 185

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

Corn:

Z15 380 13.25 / 13.75 19.00%

F16 390 21.25 / 22.00 18.00

G16 390 30 / 31 20.75%

H16 390 45.75 / 46.75 21.75%

K16 390 45.75 / 46.75 21.75%

N16 400 56.50 / 57.50 22.50%

U16 400 66.50 / 68 23.50%

Z16 400 72.25 / 73.25 22.25%

Z17 410 89 / 93 19.75%

Beans:

Z15 880 24 / 26 16.00%

F16 880 39 / 41 15.25%

H16 880 63 / 65 16.75%

K16 900 81 / 84 16.75%

N16 900 98 / 101 17.25%

U16 900 110 / 115 17.25%

X16 900 118 / 123 17.00%

Wheat:

Z15 510 19.50 / 20.50 23.00%

F16 510 34 / 35.50 21.75%

H16 510 53 / 54.50 23.75%

K16 520 69 / 71 24.50%

N16 520 80 / 83 24.75%

KC Wheat:

Z15 490 17 / 19 20.50%

F16 500 31 / 33 21.00%

H16 500 49 / 52 23.00%

K16 510 66 / 69 24.00%

N16 520 78 / 82 24.00%

Meal:

Z15 300 9.0 / 10.0 17.50%

F16 300 15.0 / 16.0 17.00%

H16 300 22.5 / 23.5 17.75%

K16 300 28.5 / 30.0 17.75%

N16 300 33.5 / 35.0 17.75%

Q16 300 35.0 / 37.0 17.75%

U16 300 37.0 / 39.0 17.75%

V16 300 38.0 / 40.0 17.50%

Z16 300 39.5 / 42.5 16.75%

Bean oil:

Z15 28.0 110 / 130 25.00%

F16 28.0 180 / 200 22.00%

H16 29.0 275 / 305 22.00%

K16 29.0 330 / 360 22.00%

N16 29.0 385 / 415 21.50%

Q16 29.0 400 / 430 21.00%

U16 29.0 410 / 450 20.50%

V16 29.0 420 / 470 20.25%

Z16 29.0 450 / 500 20.00%

Crush quotes:

                Open                     Close

Dec        93.5-95.0              93.0-94.5

JanDec  91.5-92.5             92.0-93.0

Jan         92.0-93.0              94.0-94.5

Mch       88.5-89.5              90.0-90.5

May       83.5-84.5              85.0-85.5

Jly           79.5-82.0              81.5-82.0

Aug        81.5-85.0              83.0-84.0

Sep        84.5-91.5              85.0-90.0

Oct         83.5-88.0              84.0-87.5

Dec6      84.5-87.5              85.0-87.0

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE