From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 10/22/15

US dollar sharply higher.

Ethiopia seeks 1.0 million tons of optional origin milling wheat for Nov-March shipment.

Industry analysts said China could buy about 50% less corn for state reserves in ‘15/16 season than in ‘14/15 as local governments offer subsidies to encourage processors to use more domestic grain.

  • China expected to buy 40.0-50.0 MMT of corn for reserves during the six month buying period that starts next month vs. 83.0 MMT bought a year ago
  • These purchases expected to raise Chinese corn stocks to 200.0 MMT , about 20.0 million tons more than expected ‘15/16 Chinese consumption

CNGOIC estimated China’s ‘15/16 corn crop at 228.0 MMT (record) up 6% from ‘14/15

CWG said rains in Brazil will spread north starting today and expand in driest areas of central Brazil next week , improving plant germination and moisture for early growth.

Much needed rains are falling in western portions of the US Plains wheat belt . Rains are expected to aid winter wheat germination

Russia’s state weather forecaster said rains have come and brought some relief to winter grain areas in southern Russia , rains in forecast for northern and western Russia.

Russia’s Grain Union estimated Russia’s 2015 grain crop at 102-103 MMT vs. 105.0 MMT in 2014.

Russia’s Grain Union estimated Russia’s ‘15/16 wheat exports at 23-24 MMT , unchanged from previous estimate

Russia’s Grain Union estimated Russia’s November grain exports at 3.0 MMT vs. 4.0 MMT in October.

Egypt Supply Minister said Egypt has 4.2 MMT of wheat stockpiles

  • Egypt wheat stockpiles sufficient until the beginning of April

Indonesia’s Ag Min estimated Indonesia’s 2015 corn imports at 3.0 MMT vs. 3.1 MMT in 2014

Saskatchewan grain harvest is almost complete.

Rabobank forecasted average bean oil price for the fourth quarter of 2015 at 28.00 vs. previous forecast of 27.00

  • Said the uncertainty over the impacts of El Nino on palm oil output through 2016 could drive bean oil prices higher

Rabobank forecasted average corn price at $4.10/bushel for the first quarter of 2016 vs. previous forecast of $4/bushel

Rabobank forecasted average corn price at $4.20/bushel for the second quarter of 2016 vs. previous forecast of $4.10/bushel.

Weekly Nat Gas storage report came out today at 930 am CST at +81 BCF, expecting +89 BCF.

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat sold 3,000
  • Corn sold 5,000
  • Beans sold 8,000
  • Meal sold 2,000
  • Bean oil sold 3,000

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Euro Zone flash October PMI comes out tomorrow morning.
  • Last trading day for November options is tomorrow. Grain options expire at 115 pm CST.
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • CEC to estimate South Africa’s corn area on Tuesday.

o   Based on a Reuters survey South Africa’s 2016 corn area estimated at 2.63 MH vs. 2015 area of 2.65 MH

  • Rogers roll starts Thursday October 29th . Rogers roll runs for three days. They will be rolling long December bean oil and soy meal positions into January and will be rolling long wheat and corn positions to March.
  • Goldman Sachs / UBS roll begins Friday November 6th . GS /UBS roll runs for five days. They will be rolling long December corn and wheat positions to March.

o   GS / UBS has already rolled their long December bean oil and soy meal positions to January during the November soybean roll.

 

Option players:

  • RJO bought 1,000 Jan bean 1000 calls at 4
  • ABN sold 1,000 Jan bean 900 puts at 19 3/8
  • TJM bought 1,000 March bean 900-880 put spreads and sold 1,000 March 840-820 put spreads at 4 ¾ -5 1/8
  • RJO bought 1,000 March bean 960 calls sold 1,000 Jan bean 960 calls at 9 ¾ debit , tied to March futures at 916 and tied to Jan futures at 915
  • RJO sold 1,000 Dec corn 360 p / 400 c strangles at 4 3/8- 4 ¼
  • FI bought 1,000 Nov corn 380 puts at 1 5/8 tied to Dec futures at 381.
  • ICAP sold 1,000 Dec corn 390 calls at 4 ¼
  • RJO bought 1,000 May corn 400 puts at 27 3/8 -27 ½ tied to May futures at 393
  • EDF Mann sold 2,000 Dec/July corn CSO -20 calls at 1 ¾ – 2
  • FI bought 1,600 Dec wheat 460 puts at 1 7/8.
  • ICAP bought 500 Dec wheat 480 puts at 7 ¼
  • FI sold 400 Dec wheat 490-460 put spreads at 8 ¼
  • ADM bought 500 Dec bean oil 28 puts at 30
  • EDF Mann sold 700 March bean oil 27.50 puts at 62-63
  • EDF Mann bought 400 Dec bean oil 32.50 calls at 10
  • RJO bought 300 July bean oil 31 calls at 155

Closing vols and ATM straddles: – November options expire tomorrow

Corn:

X15 380 3.75 / 4.75 17.75%

Z15 380 17 / 17.50 20.00%

F16 390 24 / 25 18.75%

H16 390 36.50 / 37.25 20.50%

K16 390 46.75 / 47.75 21.25%

N16 400 57 / 58 22.00%

U16 400 67 / 68.50 23.25%

Z16 400 72.50 / 73.50 22.00%

Z17 410 89 / 93 19.75%

Beans:

X15 900 5 / 7

Z15 900 34 / 36 17.00%

F16 900 48 / 50 16.25%

H16 900 69 / 71 17.00%

K16 900 84 / 87 16.75%

N16 920 100 / 104 17.00%

U16 920 111 / 116 17.00%

X16 920 120 / 125 16.75%

Wheat:

X15 490 5 / 6.50 22.00%

Z15 490 25 / 26 23.75%

H16 500 53 / 55 23.50%

K16 510 67 / 69 24.00%

N16 510 79 / 81 24.50%

KC Wheat:

X15 480 5 / 7 22.00%

Z15 480 23 / 25 22.00%

H16 490 49 / 51 23.00%

K16 500 63 / 66 23.50%

N16 510 79 / 82 24.00%

Minneapolis wheat:
Z15 510 20 / 24 20.00%

H16 520 45 / 49 20.25%

K16 530 59 / 63 20.75%

N16 540 72 / 76 21.75%

Meal:

X15 310 3.0 / 4.0

Z15 310 13.0 / 14.0 19.00%

F16 310 18.5 / 19.5 18.50%

H16 310 26.0 / 27.0 18.50%

K16 310 30.5 / 32.0 18.00%

N16 310 35.5 / 37.5 18.00%

Q16 310 37.5 / 39.5 18.00%

U16 310 39.5 / 41.5 17.75%

V16 310 39.0 / 42.0 17.25%

Z16 310 42.0 / 45.0 16.75%

Bean oil:

X15 29.0 30 / 50

Z15 29.0 150 / 170 24.00%

F16 29.0 210 / 230 22.50%

H16 30.0 290 / 320 22.25%

K16 30.0 340 / 380 21.75%

N16 30.0 390 / 430 20.75%

Q16 30.0 400 / 440 20.50%

U16 30.0 410 / 450 20.00%

V16 30.0 420 / 470 19.75%

Z16 30.0 450 / 500 19.25%

Crush quotes

                Open                     Closes

Dec        99.5-100.5            95.5-96.0

JanDec  96.5-97.5             93.0-93.5

Jan         96.5-98.0              93.5-94.5

Mch       91.5-93.0              88.5-89.5

May       84.5-85.5              83.0-83.5

July        81.0-81.5              79.0-80.0

Aug        81.0-83.5              79.5-82.0

Sep        86.0-92.0              86.5-91.0

Oct6       84.0-87.5             82.5-85.5

Dec6      85.0-87.0              83.5-85.0

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE