From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 10/21/15

Good soybean demand from China continues.

India seeking / buying South American bean oil this week.

The high today in Dec bean oil was 29.45 , nine week high , Dec bean oil settled at 29.18, up 52 on the day, due to good export demand

  • This morning USDA announced a total of 40,000 tons of US bean oil sold to China and unknown .

Reports today saying US bean oil is about $20 a ton cheaper than South American bean oil

Cash corn basis firm in the Midwest

Cash soy bean basis firm in Midwest

AgroConsult estimated Brazil’s ‘15/16 bean crop at a record high of 100.6 MMT (first estimate made for the ‘15/16 season) vs. ‘14/15 crop of 96.2 MMT

AgroConsult estimated Brazil’s ‘15/16 bean area at 33.1 million hectares up 3.3% from ‘14/15

AgroConsult estimated Brazil’s 2016 bean exports at 54.0 MMT

AgroConsult expects average price of soybeans in ‘15/16 to be $9.00 per bushel

AgroConsult said Brazil’s bean crop planting is 14% complete as of October 15th vs. 11% a year earlier

AgroConsult estimated Brazil’s total corn crop at 88.5 MMT up 3.5% from a year ago

AgroConsult estimated Brazil’s total corn area at 16.7 MH up 5.1% from a year ago

AgroConsult estimated Brazil’s 2016 corn exports at 32-34 MMT

AgroConsult said Brazil has sold 30-40% of their 2016 winter corn crop.

APPA said Brazilian bean and corn loading in Paranagua port was suspended again today due to rains

  • Lineup of vessels waiting to load at Paranagua terminals reached 45, more than double the average for this time of year
  • Port ops have been halted for 11 days in October due to rain
  • Shipments were suspended 15 days in September
  • Port terminals still able to receive and store beans and corn

Ukraine Ag Min estimated Ukraine’s 2015 grain crop at 59.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 59-60 MMT and vs. 63.8 MMT in 2014

Ukraine’s Ag Min said due to dry weather Ukraine will have one of the smallest rapeseed crop in the past several years

Kazakhstan Ag Min said Kazakhstan exported 1.882 MMT of grain between July 1-Oct 20 vs. 1.924 MMT a year ago

Kazakhstan Ag Min said Kazakhstan has harvested 99.8% of their grain crop
FAO estimated Algeria’s ‘15/16 wheat imports at 7.2 MMT vs. five year average of 6.0 MMT

Tunisia bought 167,000 tons of optional origin durum wheat for Dec-April shipment

Japan customs data showed Japan imported 1,930,245 tons of grain in September down 9% from a year ago

  • Imported 1,485,282 tons from the US down 5% from a year ago

Japan customs data showed Japan imported 233,283 tons of soy beans in September up 44.5% from a year ago

  • Imported 139,919 tons from the US up 84% from a year ago

Japan receives no offers for regular feed wheat and barley SBS tender

Japan seeks 120,000 tons of feed wheat and 200,000 tons of barley via SBS tender for Jan-Feb shipment

Bangladesh rejected a 20,000 ton cargo of French wheat .

  • Grain failed to match tender specifications

Some concerns over dryness in Center-West Brazil, some analysts saying it is too early in the season to be concerned, rains are in the forecast for Center-West Brazil next week

Concerns about palm oil production in Southeast Asia due to haze and dryness.

Concerns about dryness in parts of Ukraine, Russia, and Australia continues, rains are in the forecast for these areas.

Much needed rains are in the forecast for today through the weekend for US Plains HRW wheat areas.

Iran Oil Minister does not expect OPEC to change its current output policies at December 4th’s  meeting in Vienna

Iran Oil Minister said Iran does not need OPEC’s approval to boost output

Iran Oil Minister said he wants prices back above $70 a barrel

Weekly DOE energy inventory report came out today at 930 am CST:

  • Crude – a build of 8.028 million barrels, expecting a build of 3.5 million barrels    
  • Gas – a draw of 1.518 million barrels, expecting a draw of 1.00 MB
  • Distillates – a draw of 2.622 million barrels, expecting a draw 1.2 million barrels.

Weekly US ethanol plant production report came out today at 930 am CST:

  • Weekly US ethanol output up 2,000 BPD at  951,000 BPD
  • Weekly US ethanol stocks down 84,000 BBLS to 18.87 MB

Effective Sunday November 1st , for trade date Monday, November 2nd CBOT will reset price limits for grain and oilseed futures. New price limits will be

  • Corn – .25 cents per bushel vs. .30 cents currently
  • Soybeans – .60 cents per bushel vs. .70 cents currently
  • Chicago wheat – .35 cents per bushel vs. .40 cents currently
  • KC wheat – .35 cents per bushel vs. .40 cents currently
  • Bean oil – 200 tics unchanged from current limit
  • Soy meal – $20 per ton vs. $25 currently
  • Oats – .20 cents per bushel unchanged from current limit
  • Rice – .90 cents vs. .75 cents currently

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat bought 2,000
  • Corn bought 9,000
  • Beans bought 9,000
  • Meal bought 2,000
  • Bean oil bought 5,000

Upcoming reports/events:

  • ECB meets tomorrow

o   Uncertainty over whether the ECB will ease policy further at tomorrow’s meeting.

  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST. Expecting

o   Wheat 300-500,000 tons

o   Corn 450-650,000 tons

o   Beans 1.2-1.8 million tons

o   Meal 150-300,000 tons

o   Bean oil 10-60,000 tons

  • Weekly Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST, expecting +89 BCF
  • SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Oct 1-25th palm oil exports on Sunday.  

Option players:

  • ABN bought 1,000 Dec soybean 910 calls at 13 5/8 tied to Jan futures at 903.
  • ABN bought 1,000 Dec soybean 920 calls at 10 ½ tied to Jan futures at 903.
  • ABN bought 1,000 Dec soybean 920 calls at 12 ¼ tied to Jan futures at 907.
  • ADM bought 1,000 Jan bean 930 calls at 15 1/8 tied to Jan futures at 906
  • TJM bought 1,600 March bean 880-820 put spreads and sold 1,600 Jan bean 880-820 put spreads at 4 ¾ -4 7/8 debit
  • RJO bought 500 Jan bean 960 calls at 7 ½ – 7 ¾
  • ABN bought 1,000 March bean 960 call / 860 put combos at 1 ¾ debit (calls over) tied to March futures at 910
  • ICAP bought 1,000 Dec corn 370 puts at 4 ½
  • FI bought 1,500 Dec corn 370 puts at 5 5/8 – 6
  • JP Morgan sold 1,200 Jan corn 390 calls at 11 ½ -12 ½
  • JP Morgan sold 500 week 5 corn 370 puts at 1 3/8 tied to Dec futures at 378 ½
  • JP Morgan sold 700 Dec corn 380 calls at 8 ½
  • RJO bought 500 Dec corn 370 calls at 13 ¼ -13 ¾
  • JP Morgan bought 1,000 Dec wheat 480 puts at 7 ¼ tied to Dec futures at 492.
  • JP Morgan bought 500 Dec wheat 470 puts at 3 ½
  • Rosenthal bought 500 Dec wheat 470 puts at 3 ½
  • ABN bought 500 Jan wheat 530 calls at 9 7/8 tied to March futures at 503
  • Rosenthal bought 800 Dec soy meal 310 calls at 6.40-7.70
  • RJO sold 300 Dec soy meal 300 puts at 3.00
  • FI sold 300 Nov soy meal 310 puts at 1.50
  • Drax sold 400 Dec bean oil 28 p / 29.5 c strangles at 104 tied to Dec futures at 2935
  • FI bought 700 March bean oil 2850 puts at 90 tied to March futures at 2988
  • JP Morgan bought 300 March bean oil 32 calls at 70
  • Macquarie sold 500 March bean oil 32 calls at 70
  • Rosenthal bought 300 Dec bean oil 30.5 calls at 37
  • Rosenthal sold 250 Dec bean oil 35 calls at 2.5

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

Corn:

X15 380 4 / 4.50 18.00%

Z15 380 17.25 / 17.75 19.75%

F16 390 24.25 / 24.75 18.75%

H16 390 36.50 / 37.25 20.50%

K16 400 47.25 / 48 21.00%

N16 400 56.50 / 57.50 21.75%

U16 400 66.50 / 68 23.25%

Z16 400 72.50 / 73.50 22.00%

Z17 410 89 / 93 19.75%

Beans:

X15 29.0 40 / 60

Z15 29.0 155 / 175 24.25%

F16 29.5 210 / 230 22.50%

H16 30.0 290 / 320 22.25%

K16 30.0 340 / 380 21.75%

N16 30.0 390 / 430 20.75%

Q16 30.0 400 / 440 20.50%

U16 30.0 410 / 450 20.00%

V16 30.0 420 / 470 19.75%

Z16 30.0 450 / 500 19.25%

Wheat:

X15 500 7.50 / 8.50 20.50%

Z15 500 26 / 27 22.75%

H16 500 53 / 55 23.50%

K16 510 68 / 70 24.00%

N16 510 80 / 83 24.50%

KC Wheat:

X15 480 6.50 / 9.50 20.00%

Z15 480 23 / 25 21.50%

H16 500 51 / 53 22.50%

K16 510 65 / 67 23.00%

N16 520 79 / 82 23.75%

Minneapolis wheat:
Z15 510 21 / 25 19.00%

H16 530 46 / 50 20.25%

K16 540 59 / 63 20.75%

N16 550 73 / 78 21.75%

Meal:

X15 310 3.5 / 4.5

Z15 310 13.0 / 14.0 19.00%

F16 310 18.5 / 19.5 18.50%

H16 310 26.0 / 27.0 18.50%

K16 310 30.5 / 32.0 18.00%

N16 310 35.5 / 37.5 18.00%

Q16 310 37.5 / 39.5 18.00%

U16 310 39.5 / 41.5 17.75%

V16 310 39.0 / 42.0 17.25%

Z16 310 42.0 / 45.0 16.75%

Bean oil:

X15 29.0 40 / 60

Z15 29.0 155 / 175 24.25%

F16 29.5 210 / 230 22.50%

H16 30.0 290 / 320 22.25%

K16 30.0 340 / 380 21.75%

N16 30.0 390 / 430 20.75%

Q16 30.0 400 / 440 20.50%

U16 30.0 410 / 450 20.00%

V16 30.0 420 / 470 19.75%

Z16 30.0 450 / 500 19.25%

Crush quotes

                Open                     Closes

Dec        101.5-102.5         98.5-99.5

JanDec  96.5-98.0             94.0-95.0             

Jan         97.5-99.0              95.5-96.5

Mch       93.0-94.0              90.0-91.0

May       86.5-88.0              84.0-85.0

July        82.5-83.5              80.5-81.5

Aug        82.5-85.0              81.0-83.0

Sep        85.0-92.0              88.0-91.0

Oct6       81.0-89.0             84.5-88.0

Dec6      82.0-89.0              85.5-87.5

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE