From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 10/15/15

Egypt GASC bought 240,000 tons of wheat for November shipment

  • 180,000 tons of wheat from Russia
  • 60,000 tons of wheat from Romania

NOPA September crush report came out today  at 11 am CST.

  • Crush at 126.704 MB, average estimate was 129.4 MB, range of estimates were 125.0-137.41 MB. August crush was 135.304 MB and Sept 2014 crush was 99.97 MB.
  • Bean oil stocks at 1.355 billion lbs. , average estimate was 1.396 billion lbs., range of estimates were 1.250-1.580 billion lbs. August bean oil stocks were 1.480 billion lbs. and Sept 2014 bean oil stocks were 936.880 million lbs.
  • Soy meal exports at 502,300 tons , no estimate is given for meal exports. August meal exports were 491,051 tons and September 2014 meal exports were 308,5115 tons.

Talk/reports of strong soybean demand from China continues.

Analysts saying Mato Grosso’s bean crop is 12-15% planted vs. 25% a year ago and vs. 23.5% average.  

Somar said Brazilian bean and corn planting is being held up due to dryness in center-west grain belt and excess rain in the southernmost grain state of Rio Grande do Sul.

Report on Reuters said Asian feed millers are expected to import Ukrainian corn if heavy rains in Brazil further delay shipments from Brazil’s busiest port Paranagua .

  • Waiting times for vessels at Paranagua port has already climbed to 40 days

Asian feed millers have been buying several Brazilian corn cargoes for Oct-Dec shipment

  • Vietnam has bought about 500,000 tons of corn for Oct-Dec shipment
  • Bangladesh has bought 150,000 tons of Brazilian corn

Rosario Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s ‘15/16 bean planting area at 20.5 MH

Rosario Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s ‘15/16 wheat production at 9.3 MMT

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said in their weekly Argentina crop progress report that 28% of Argentina’s corn crop has been planted

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimated ’15/16 Argentine corn planting area at 2.7 MH , unchanged from previous estimate

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimated ‘15/16 Argentine wheat planting area at 3.7 MH unchanged from previous estimate

Strategie Grains EU crop estimates

  • 2015 Soft wheat crop estimated at 149.5 MMT (record) vs. previous estimate of 147.5 MMT and vs. 149.1 MMT in 2014
  • 2015 Corn crop estimated at 57.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 57.4 MMT and vs. 75.9 MMT in 2014
  • 2015 Barley crop estimated at 60.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 60.4 MMT and vs. 60.4 MMT in 2014
  • 2016 soft wheat area estimated at 24.0 MH vs. 2015 area of 24.1 MH
  • 2016 total cereal area estimated at 57.4 MH vs. 57.2 MH in 2015

FranceAgriMer –France estimates

  • France’s ‘15/16 soft wheat exports outside the EU estimated at 11.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 11.0 MMT and vs. ‘14/15 exports of 11.4 MMT
  • France’s ‘15/16 soft wheat production estimated at 41.0 MMT (record) , vs. previous estimate of 40.7 MMT
  • France’s ‘15/16 corn production estimated at 13.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 13.3 MMT and down 27.5% from a year ago

FranceAgriMer weekly France crop progress report, as of October 12th

  • Corn harvest is 38% complete vs. 15% a year ago
  • Soft wheat planting is 39% complete vs. 31% a year ago
  • Barley planting is 61% complete vs. 50% a year ago

Oil World said this week that global palm oil supplies to tighten in 2016 and raise prices and reduce price discount compared to other vegetable oils

  • Malaysian palm oil at $66/mt discount to Argentina bean oil as of Oct 8th vs. and average of $77 in September and vs. an average of $96 in August
  • Dry conditions for at least 30% of palm oil areas in Malaysia and Indonesia over the past 2-3 months
  • Estimated 2015 Colombia palm oil production at 1.22 MMT up 9.9% from a year ago
  • Estimated 2015 Colombia palm oil exports at 230,000 tons up 73% from a year ago

Russia’s Ag Min said as of Oct 14 Russia has harvested 102.4 MMT of grain on 42.7 MH (96.2% complete) with average yield of 2.4 TPH. A year ago Russia harvested 104.1 MMT of grain on 41.7 MH with an average yield of 2.5 TPH

SovEcon said Russia raised average state grain prices by 1,000 roubles per ton.

SovEcon said Russia could buy up to 1.5 MMT of grain from domestic market by January for stocks.

Russia’s Ag Min said Russia should have no less than 3.5 MMT of grain in reserves, currently grain stocks are at 1.9 MMT

SovEcon estimated Russia’s ‘15/16 grain exports at 30.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 31.0 MMT

Ukraine Ag Min and traders unions failed to agree on ‘15/16 grain exports.

Ukraine’s State Statistics Service said Ukraine’s grain stocks as of October 1st were at 25.8 MMT up 10% from a year ago

USDA attaché in India estimated India’s ‘15/16 soybean output at 11.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 12.5 MMT

USDA attaché in India estimated India’s ‘15/16 oilmeal exports at 3.3 MMT (second lowest in 10 years)

USDA attaché in India estimated India’s ‘15/16 veg oil imports at 14.5 MMT

India considers raising the wheat import tax to 25% from 10% to curb cheaper imports from Australia and France.

  • Reports India has bought 500,000+ tons of Australian wheat since March

Kazakhstan’s Ag Min said Kazakhstan exported 1.618 MMT of grain between July 1-Oct 10 down 1.8% from a year ago

Kazakhstan’s Ag Min said as of today Kazakhstan harvested 19.303 MMT of grain on 14.581 MH (98.9% complete) with an average yield of 1.32 TPH

Saskatchewan weekly crop progress report showed 91% of their grain /oilseed crop has been harvested vs. 84% a week ago and vs. 93% five year average.

Fitch downgrades Brazil to BBB-  from BBB; Outlook remains negative.

Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report came out today at 930 am CST at +100 BCF expecting +91 BCF.

Weekly DOE energy inventory report came out today at 10 am CST:

  • Crude – a build of 7.562 million barrels, expecting a build of 2.577 million barrels    
  • Gas – a draw of 2.62 million barrels, expecting a draw of 1.25 MB
  • Distillates – a draw of 1.52 million barrels, expecting a draw 700,000 barrels.

Weekly US ethanol plant production report came out today at 10 am CST:

  • Weekly US ethanol output down 1,000 BPD at  949,000 BPD
  • Weekly US ethanol stocks up 144,000 BBLS to 18.96 MB

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat sold 3,000
  • Corn sold 5,000
  • Beans sold 6,000
  • Meal sold 2,000
  • Bean oil sold 2,000

Upcoming reports/events:

  • China auctioning a total of 5.4 MMT of corn from reserves today and tomorrow
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST. Expecting

o   Wheat 250-450,000 tons

o   Corn 450-650,000 tons

o   Beans 1.0-1.5 million tons

o   Meal 175-375,000 tons

o   Bean oil 0-30,000 tons

  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST.
  • November options expire Friday October 23rd .

Option players:

  • RJO bought 1,000 Jan bean 960 calls at 11 5/8 -11 ¾ tied to Jan futures at 913, 27 delta.
  • RJO bought 1,000 Nov bean 920-950 call spreads at 5 5/8 tied to Nov futures at 913, 32 delta
  • Macquarie bought 800 May bean 1000-1040 call spreads at 7 ¼ tied to May futures at 921 ¾
  • FC Stone bought 500 Dec bean 890 puts at 11-11 ¼
  • ABN sold 1,000 Dec corn 420 calls at 5/8
  • ICAP sold 1,000 Dec corn 400 calls at 3 tied to Dec futures at 378
  • ICAP sold 1,000 Nov corn 360 puts at 3/8
  • RJO bought 600 Jan corn 370 puts and sold 120 March corn 390 straddles at 8 ½ credit
  • RJO bought 500 Jan corn 370 puts and sold 100 March corn 390 straddles at 7 ½ credit tied to March futures at 387 ½
  • RJO bought 600 Nov corn 375-385 put spreads at 6
  • RJO bought 500 Nov corn 375-380 puts spreads at 2 ½
  • EDF Mann bot 1,000 Dec wheat 490-460 put spreads at 5 3/4 – 5 7/8 tied to Dec futures at 509
  • ICAP sold 800 Dec wheat 550-600 call spreads at 3 5/8 tied to Dec futures at 512 ¾
  • ABN bought 700 Dec wheat 480 puts and sold 700 Nov wheat 485 puts at 4 tied Dec futures at 505
  • RJO sold 400 Dec meal 280 puts at .35
  • RJO sold 300 Dec meal 300 puts at 2.00
  • RJO bought 200 Nov meal 310 puts at 1.30
  • FI sold 500 Jan bean oil 28 puts at 80
  • FI bought 500 Dec bean oil 33 calls at 10
  • Rosenthal bought 40 Jan crush 90 puts at 7

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

Corn:

X15 375 8 / 9 19.00%

Z15 375 19.25 / 19.75 20.50%

F16 390 26.50 / 27.25 19.75%

H16 390 38 / 39 21.00%

K16 390 46.50 / 47.50 21.00%

N16 400 56.50 / 57.50 21.50%

U16 400 66 / 67.50 22.75%

Z16 400 72 / 73.50 21.50%

Beans:

X15 28.5 85 / 105 27.00%

Z15 28.5 180 / 200 26.00%

F16 29.0 230 / 250 23.00%

H16 29.0 290 / 320 22.50%

K16 30.0 350 / 390 21.50%

N16 30.0 390 / 430 20.75%

Q16 30.0 400 / 440 20.25%

U16 30.0 420 / 460 20.00%

V16 30.0 430 / 480 19.75%

Z16 30.0 450 / 500 19.00%

Wheat:

X15 500 13.50 / 14 22.00%

Z15 500 28.50 / 30 23.00%

H16 510 54.50 / 56.50 23.00%

K16 520 70 / 72 23.50%

N16 530 82 / 84 23.50%

KC Wheat:

X15 500 12 / 14 21.00%

Z15 500 28 / 30 22.50%

H16 510 54 / 56 23.00%

K16 520 69 / 72 23.50%

N16 530 81 / 85 23.50%

Minneapolis wheat:
Z15 525 26 / 30 20.75%

H16 540 50 / 54 20.75%

K16 550 64 / 68 21.00%

N16 560 78 / 81 22.00%

Meal:

X15 315 7.0 / 8.0 20.00%

Z15 310 14.5 / 15.5 18.75%

F16 310 20.0 / 21.0 18.75%

H16 310 27.0 / 28.0 19.00%

K16 310 32.0 / 33.5 18.25%

N16 310 36.5 / 38.5 18.25%

Q16 310 38.0 / 40.0 18.00%

U16 310 40.0 / 42.0 17.75%

V16 310 39.5 / 42.5 17.25%

Z16 310 42.0 / 45.0 16.75%

Bean oil:

X15 910 18 / 20 16.50%

Z15 920 40 / 42 17.25%

F16 920 54 / 56 17.00%

H16 920 75 / 77 17.50%

K16 920 89 / 92 17.00%

N16 920 104 / 107 17.25%

U16 920 115 / 120 17.25%

X16 920 122 / 127 17.00%

Crush quotes

                Open                   Closes

Dec        99.0-99.5              99.5-100.0

DecJan  95.0-96.5             95.5-96.5

Jan         95.5-97.0              95.5-97.0

Mch       90.0-91.5              90.0-91.5

May       83.5-85.5              84.0-86.0

July        80.0-81.5              79.5-81.0

Aug        79.5-83.0              79.5-82.0

Sep        85.0-92.0              85.0-92.0

Oct         85.0-88.5              84.5-87.5

Dec        85.5-87.5              85.0-86.5

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE