From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 10/13/15

Brazilian Real sharply lower today , trading around 3.86 to the dollar, analysts said if it goes over 4 it could initiate Brazilian farmer selling

Rumors overnight/today that China’s government is going to start buying edible oils for state reserves

Reports of good Chinese soybean demand

Technical buying , short covering .

Egypt FIHC bought 9,000 tons of sunflower oil and 45,000 tons of bean oil from ADM and Glencore for Jan-Feb shipment

Weekly US export inspections report came out today at 10 am CST

  • Wheat at 290,717 tons , expecting 500-625,000 tons
  • Corn at 573,298 tons , expecting 625-750,000 tons
  • Beans at 1,831,696 tons , expecting 1.1-1.25 million tons

SovEcon estimated ‘15/16 Russian grain crop at 101.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 101.50 MMT and vs. Russia’s Ag Min estimate of 100.0 MMT

  • Wheat crop estimated at 60.8 MMT
  • Barley crop estimated at 17.4 MMT
  • Corn crop estimated at 12.1 MMT

SovEcon estimated ‘15/16 Russia exportable grain surplus at 30.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 31.0 MMT

China wheat output estimated at 66.3 MMT vs. 73.6 MMT a year ago

Egypt, Indonesia , Saudi Arabia , and Algeria have been actively buying wheat over the past two weeks.

Jordan canceled tender to buy 100,000 tons of optional origin hard wheat for Feb-March shipment

Michael Cordonnier weekly crop estimates

  • Estimated Brazil’s ‘15/16 bean crop at 100.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 99.0 MMT
  • Estimated Brazil’s ‘15/16 bean planting area at 33.3 MH vs. previous estimate of 33.0 MH
  • Said Brazil’s ‘15/16 bean crop is about 4-5% planted vs. 7% a year ago and vs. 9% average
  • Estimated Brazil’s ‘15/16 total corn crop at 81.2 MMT vs. previous estimate 84.3 MMT vs. 85.4 MMT in ‘14/15
  • Estimated Argentina’s ‘15/16 bean crop at 60.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Said Argentina’s ‘15/16 bean crop is about 1-2% planted unchanged from average.
  • Estimated Argentina’s ‘15/16 corn crop at 21.6 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated total South America’s ‘15/16 bean crop at 175.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 174.3 MMT vs. 171.5 MMT in ‘14/15
  • Estimated total South America’s ‘15/16 corn crop at 107.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 110.2 MMT and vs.  ‘14/15 crop of 115.1 MMT
  • Estimated US 2015 bean yield at 47.2 BPA unchanged from USDA and vs. previous estimate of 46.5 BPA
  • Estimated US 2015 corn yield at 167.5 BPA vs. USDA estimate of 168.0 BPA and vs. previous estimate of 165.0 BPA

Concerns about dryness causing lower wheat production in Black Sea region and Australia continues.

Today was the last day of the Goldman Sachs / UBS roll. They were rolling long Nov bean and Dec bean oil and soymeal positions into Jan. Roll ends tomorrow.

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat bought 6,000
  • Corn bought 7,000
  • Beans bought 17,000
  • Meal bought 8,000
  • Bean oil bought 6,000

Upcoming reports/events:

  • US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST. Expecting

o   Corn harvest 40-45% complete vs. 43% average

o   Bean harvest 60-65% complete vs. 53% average

o   Winter wheat planting 60-67% complete

  • China’s PPI and CPI comes out tonight/tomorrow morning
  • FSA US acreage data comes out tomorrow morning
  • Last trading day of October soy meal and bean oil is tomorrow. Futures expire at noon CST
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out Thursday at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out Thursday at 930 am CST
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out Thursday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out Thursday at 10 am CST
  • NOPA September crush report comes out on Thursday at 11 am CST .

o   Based on Reuters poll Expecting

  • NOPA September crush average estimate is 129.4 MB , range of estimates are 125.0-132.741 MB
  • NOPA September bean oil stocks average estimate 1.396 billion lbs. range of estimates are 1.250-1.580 billion lbs.
  • No September soy meal export estimate is given.

o   NOPA August crush was 135.304 MB 

o   NOPA August bean oil stocks were 1.480 billion lbs.

o   NOPA August soymeal  exports were 491,501 tons

o   NOPA Sept 2014 crush was 99.970 MB

o   NOPA Sept 2014 bean oil stocks were 936.880 million lbs. 

o   NOPA Sept 2014 soymeal exports were 308,515 tons

  • Weekly US export sales report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • Weekly COT report comes out on Friday at 230 pm CST.
  • ADM to release third quarter financial results on Tuesday November 3rd

Option players:

  • EDF Mann bought 800 Nov bean 880-860 put spreads at 3 tied to Nov futures at 899
  • TJM sold 1,000 Nov bean 920 calls at 4 1/8 -4 5/8
  • TJM bought 1,500 Jan bean 900-880 put spreads and sold 1,500 Jan bean 840-820 puts spreads at 5-5 ¾ debit
  • RJO bought 2,000 Jan bean 950 calls at 12-12 1/8 tied to Jan futures at 906
  • UBS sold 1,000 Jan bean 950 calls at 11 ½
  • Bunge bought 1,000 July bean 900 calls at 61 ½ -62 ½
  • RJO bought 1,000 May bean 1000-1040 call spreads at 6 ½ tied to May futures at 914 ½
  • ADM bought 600 Dec soy bean 900 straddles at 41 ½ -41 ¾ tied to Jan futures at 907
  • ABN bought 1,500 Nov bean 900 puts at 8 ¼ -8 3/8 tied to Nov futures at 907
  • Rand bought 5,000 Nov corn 375 puts at 2 ¼ tied to Dec futures at 328
  • ADM bought 2,000 Dec corn 360 puts 2 ½ -2 5/8
  • ICAP sold 2,000 Sept 375 put / 390 call corn strangles at 4
  • ICAP sold 1,000 Dec corn 390 puts at 14 ¼
  • Drax bought 500 Dec wheat 540 calls at 7 tied to Dec futures at 514
  • Rosenthal bought 1,000 Dec wheat 490 puts at 4 ¾ tied to Dec futures at 520.
  • RJO bought 1,500 Dec meal 300 puts at 2.70-3.50
  • Rand sold 800 March meal 300 puts at 9.00-9.25
  • Rand sold 500 Dec meal 300 puts at 2.45-2.50
  • Bunge sold 500 Dec meal 320 calls at 6.00
  • FI bought 700 Jan bean oil 29 calls and sold 700 Dec bean oil 28 calls at 12 credit

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

Corn:

X15 385 9.50 / 10.50 19.50%

Z15 385 19.75 / 20.50 20.25%

F16 400 27.50 / 28.50 19.75%

H16 400 39.25 / 39.75 20.75%

K16 400 48 / 48.50 20.75%

N16 410 58 / 59.50 21.50%

U16 400 67 / 69 22.75%

Z16 410 73.50 / 75.50 21.75%

Beans:

X15 920 23 / 25 19.50%

Z15 920 43 / 45 18.25%

F16 920 58 / 60 17.75%

H16 920 78 / 80 18.00%

K16 920 90 / 93 17.25%

N16 920 106 / 109 17.50%

U16 920 117 / 122 17.50%

X16 920 123 / 128 17.25%

Wheat:

X15 520 16 / 17 22.75%

Z15 520 31 / 32 23.00%

H16 530 59 / 60 23.00%

K16 530 72 / 74 23.50%

N16 530 84 / 87 24.00%

KC Wheat:

X15 510 15 / 16 22.25%

Z15 510 29 / 31 22.75%

H16 520 56 / 58 23.00%

K16 530 71 / 73 23.50%

N16 540 83 / 85 23.50%

Minneapolis wheat:
Z15 540 28 / 31 22.00%

H16 550 55 / 59 22.00%

K16 560 69 / 73 22.00%

N16 570 84 / 88 23.50%

Meal:

X15 320 9.0 / 10.0 22.00%

Z15 320 17.0 / 18.0 21.00%

F16 310 22.5 / 23.5 20.25%

H16 310 28.5 / 29.5 19.50%

K16 310 32.5 / 34.0 18.50%

N16 310 36.5 / 38.5 18.25%

Q16 310 38.0 / 40.0 18.00%

U16 310 40.0 / 42.0 17.75%

V16 310 39.5 / 42.5 17.25%

Z16 310 42.0 / 45.0 16.75%

Bean oil:

X15 29.0 90 / 110 26.50%

Z15 29.0 175 / 195 25.00%

F16 29.0 225 / 245 22.50%

H16 30.0 290 / 320 21.75%

K16 30.0 340 / 380 21.00%

N16 30.0 390 / 430 20.50%

Q16 30.0 400 / 440 20.25%

U16 30.0 420 / 460 20.00%

V16 30.0 430 / 480 19.75%

Z16 30.0 440 / 490 19.00%

Crush quotes

Open                     Closes

Oct         100.5-105.0         —          

Dec        105.0-106.0         102.5-103.5

DecJan  100.5-101.5         98.5-99.5

Jan         100.5-101.5         99.0-100.5

Mch       94.5-95.0              92.5-93.0

May       87.5-88.0              84.5-86.0

July        82.5-83.0              79.0-80.0

Aug        82.0-83.0              78.0-80.5

Sep        85.0-92.0              84.0-90.5

Oct         84.5-87.5              83.0-86.5

Dec6      85.0-86.5              83.0-85.0

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE