From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 10/12/15

South Korea , Cuba , and Morocco shopping for soy meal.

Mexico and Egypt shopping for corn

Philippines and Thailand seeking wheat. 

Jordan tenders to sell 50,000 tons of Polish wheat for the third time.

AgRural estimated Brazil’s ‘15/16 bean crop at 98.9 MMT vs. CONAB estimate of 100.1-101.9 MMT and vs. USDA estimate of 100.0 MMT

AgRural estimated Brazil’s ‘15/16 bean planting area at 32.8 MH up 2.7% from a year ago

AgRural said as of Friday Brazil’s ‘15/16 bean crop is 8% planted vs. 7% a year ago

IMEA said Friday Mato Grosso bean crop is 6.1% planted, vs. 1.7% a week ago, vs. 8.3% a year ago, and vs. 12.0% average

China to keep 2016 state wheat purchase price unchanged from 2015.

France Farm Ministry – 2015 France crop estimates

  • Corn crop estimated at 13.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 13.5 MMT vs. 2014 record crop of 18.1 MMT and down 15.8% from five year average
  • Corn average yield estimated at 8.5 TPH vs. vs. 10.5 TPH in 2014
  • Soft wheat crop estimated at 41.0 MMT (record) vs. previous estimate of 40.8 MMT up 9.3% from 2014 crop and up 14.2% from five year average
  • Soft wheat average yield estimated at 7.93 TPH vs. 7.48 TPH in 2014

Talk continues of poor Indian soybean crop due to dryness ,

Australian Crop Forecasters lowered their estimate for Australia’s wheat crop to 24.3 MMT and said they may reduce estimate further if rain doesn’t come in October for later developing crops . ABARES September estimate was 25.28 MMT and vs. USDA estimate of 27.0 MMT

Russia’s Grain Quality Centre said Russia exported 1.1 MMT of grain between October 1-9th , including 800,000 tons of wheat

Russia’s Grain Quality Centre said Russia exported 12.7 MMT of grain between July 1-Oct 9th, including 9.5 MMT of wheat

Morocco to cut customs duty for soft wheat imports to 50% starting November 1st , from 75% currently

Morocco 2015 cereals crop expected to be a record of 11.0 MMT , including 5.2 MMT of soft wheat

USDA attaché in Ukraine said Ukraine’s 2015 corn production may be 7.3 MMT lower than 2014 production

USDA attaché in Ukraine estimated Ukraine’s ‘15/16 corn exports at 12.5 MMT vs. 19.4 MMT in ‘14/15

USDA attaché in Ukraine said Ukraine’s 2015 wheat production will be 2.6 MMT higher than 2014 production.

USDA attaché in Ukraine estimated Ukraine’s ‘15/16 wheat exports at 15.6 MMT vs. ‘14/15 exports of 11.2 MMT

USDA attaché in India estimated India’s ‘15/16 corn crop at 22.5 MMT

Today was the fourth day of the Goldman Sachs / UBS roll. They are rolling long Nov bean and Dec bean oil and soymeal positions into Jan. Roll ends tomorrow.

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat even
  • Corn sold 6,000
  • Beans even
  • Meal bought 2,000
  • Bean oil sold 3,000

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Brazil , Canada, Mexico , Japan , and all US markets resume trading tomorrow.
  • China’s September trade balance report comes out tonight / tomorrow morning
  • Weekly US export inspections comes out tomorrow at 10 am CST.  Delayed one day due to US government holiday
  • US crop progress report comes out tomorrow at 3 pm CST. Expecting

o   Corn harvest 40-45% complete vs. 43% average

o   Bean harvest 60-65% complete vs. 53% average

  • China’s PPI and CPI comes out on Wednesday
  • FSA US acreage data comes out on Wednesday
  • Last trading day of October soy meal and bean oil is Wednesday. Futures expire at noon CST
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out on Wednesday at 330 pm
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out Thursday at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out Thursday at 930 am CST
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out Thursday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out Thursday at 10 am CST
  • NOPA September crush report comes out on Thursday at 11 am CST . Estimates for NOPA’s report are not out yet

o   NOPA August crush was 135.304 MB 

o   NOPA August bean oil stocks were 1.480 billion lbs.

o   NOPA August soymeal  exports were 491,501 tons

o   NOPA Sept 2014 crush was 99.970 MB

o   NOPA Sept 2014 bean oil stocks were 936.880 million lbs. 

o   NOPA Sept 2014 soymeal exports were 308,515 tons

  • Weekly US export sales report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • Weekly COT report comes out on Friday at 230 pm CST.

Option players:

  • Drax sold 4,000 Nov bean 930 calls at 1 ¼ -1 ½ tied to Nov futures at 892
  • Rand sold 1,000 Nov bean 860 puts at 2-2 1/8
  • RJO sold 500 Nov bean 860-840 put spreads at 1 ¼ tied to Nov futures at 892
  • RJO bought 500 Nov bean 860 puts at 2 1/8 tied to Nov futures at 890
  • Rosenthal sold 500 Nov bean 860-840 put spreads at 1 ¼ tied to Nov futures at 893
  • ICAP bought 600 Nov bean 870 puts at 3 3/8
  • JP Morgan bought 1,400 Nov corn 400 calls at ¾
  • ABN sold 1,000 Dec corn 390-370 put spreads at 9 ¾ tied to Dec futures 381 ¾ 
  • RJO bought 500 Dec corn 450 call and sold 500 Dec corn 340 put combos at 3/8 credit tied to Dec futures at 381
  • FC Stone sold 800 Dec wheat 550-600 call spreads at 3 3/8 tied to Dec futures at 510 ¼
  • Macquarie sold 400 Dec wheat 505 straddles at 32
  • TJM sold 400 Dec wheat 560 calls at 2 ¾
  • RJO bought 300 Nov soy meal 300 puts at 1.25-1.35
  • Drax bought 500 Dec bean oil 25 puts at 6
  • FI bought 1,000 Dec bean oil 33 calls at 8-9
  • Rosenthal bought 500 Dec bean oil 29-31 call spreads at 45

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

Corn:

X15 380 10 / 10.50 19.50%

Z15 380 20.25 / 20.75 20.50%

F16 390 27.50 / 28.50 20.00%

H16 390 38.50 / 39 20.75%

K16 400 47.50 / 48.50 20.75%

N16 400 57 / 58.50 21.25%

U16 400 68 / 70 23.25%

Z16 410 74 / 75.50 21.75%

Beans:

X15 890 21 / 23 17.50%

Z15 900 39 / 41 17.00%

F16 900 53 / 55 16.75%

H16 900 73 / 75 17.25%

K16 900 85 / 88 16.50%

N16 900 98 / 102 16.50%

U16 900 110 / 114 16.75%

X16 900 118 / 123 16.50%

Wheat:

X15 510 16.50 / 17.50 23.00%

Z15 510 30.50 / 31.75 23.50%

H16 520 58 / 59.50 23.50%

K16 520 72 / 74 24.25%

N16 520 83 / 85 24.25%

KC Wheat:

X15 500 16 / 17 22.50%

Z15 500 29.50 / 31 23.00%

H16 520 56 / 58 23.00%

K16 520 70 /  73 23.50%

N16 530 83 / 86 23.75%

Minneapolis wheat:
Z15 530 28 / 31 21.75%

H16 540 54 / 58 21.75%

K16 550 67 / 72 21.75%

N16 560 81 / 86 23.00%

Meal:

X15 310 8.0 / 9.0 19.75%

Z15 310 16.0 / 17.0 20.25%

F16 310 21.5 / 22.5 19.75%

H16 310 28.0 / 29.0 19.25%

K16 310 32.0 / 33.5 18.25%

N16 310 36.0 / 38.0 18.00%

Q16 310 38.0 / 40.0 18.00%

U16 300 39.0 / 41.0 17.75%

V16 300 39.0 / 42.0 17.25%

Z16 300 41.0 / 44.0 16.75%

Bean oil:

X15 28.5 90 / 110 25.00%

Z15 28.5 175 / 195 24.50%

F16 28.5 220 / 240 22.50%

H16 29.0 280 / 310 21.75%

K16 29.0 330 / 370 20.75%

N16 29.0 370 / 410 20.25%

Q16 29.0 390 / 430 20.00%

U16 29.0 410 / 450 20.00%

V16 29.0 420 / 470 19.75%

Z16 29.0 430 / 480 19.00%

Crush quotes

 

                Open                     Closes

Oct         98.0-100.0           99.5-102.0

Dec        102.0-103.0         103.0-103.5

JanDec  97.0-98.0             98.0-98.5

Jan         97.5-99.0              99.0-100.0

Mch       92.5-94.0              93.5-94.0

May       86.5-88.0              87.0-87.5

July        83.0-83.5              82.0-83.0

Aug        83.0-85.0              81.5-83.0

Sep        85.0-90.0              85.0-92.0

Oct         86.0-89.0              85.0-88.0

Dec6      86.5-89.0              85.0-87.0

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE