From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 10/07/15

Chinese markets reopen open tonight/tomorrow morning after week long holiday.

Celeres estimated ‘15/16 Brazilian bean crop at 97.1 MMT up 1.2% from ‘14/15

Celeres estimated ‘15/16 Brazilian bean yield at 3.02 TPH

Celeres estimated Brazil’s ‘15/16 summer corn crop at 30.9 MMT down .3% from a year ago

Celeres estimated Brazil’s ‘15/16 second corn crop area at 9.64 MH up 4.4% from a year ago

Egypt to allow 13.5% moisture in next wheat tender, previous moisture requirement was 13%

NFU survey showed that UK’s 2015 wheat output is 16.68 MMT vs. 2014 output of 16.61MMT

NFU survey showed that UK’s 2015 wheat yield is 9.1 TPH vs. 2014 yield of 8.6 TPH

Weekly DOE energy inventory report came out today at 930 am CST:

  • Crude – a build of 3.073 million barrels, expecting a build of 2.0 million barrels    
  • Gas – a build of 1.910 million barrels, expecting unchanged
  • Distillates – a draw of 2.458 million barrels, expecting a draw 800,000 barrels.

Weekly US ethanol plant production report came out today at 930 am CST:

  • Weekly US ethanol output up 7,000 BPD at  950,000 BPD
  • Weekly US ethanol stocks up 30,000 BBLS to 18.81 MB

Oil World estimates

  • 2016 German rapeseed area estimated at 1.28 MH , about unchanged from a year ago and down 8.6% from average
  • Said Ukraine’s 2016 rapeseed crop will probably fall to a multiyear low due to dry weather
  • Said Ukraine’s ‘16/17 rapeseed exports will fall for a third straight year
  • Said Ukraine’s rapeseed planted area as of October 1st totaled 570,000 hectares down 29% from a year ago  and said it is now too late for farmers to plant more.
  • Estimated South America’s October soybean exports at 2.34 MMT vs. 900,000 tons in October 2014 and vs. 5.2 MMT in September 2015

Colombia’s Ag Min has approved the import of an additional 2.5 MMT of corn due to drought.

  • Colombia’s statistics agency said Colombia has imported 3.1 MMT of corn between Jan-July this year.

MDA Weather Services –Black Sea area comments

  • Most winter wheat areas in Black Sea region will see poor germination due to widespread dryness
  • Weather to turn much colder over next 10 days with freezing temperatures across Volga Valley , Central Region, northern and central Ukraine
  • Cold may lead to earlier close of planting window for winter wheat, will slow growth of already germinated

Cordonnier’s weekly crop comments

  • Brazilian ‘15/16 bean crop is 2-3% planted , normal for this time of year
  • Estimated Brazilian ‘15/16 bean crop at 99.0 MMT , unchanged from previous estimate

o   Said some analysts are saying Brazil’s ‘15/16 bean crop could be as high as 103.0 MMT

  • Estimated Brazilian ‘15/16 total corn crop at 84.3 MMT, unchanged from previous estimate
  • Said Argentina’s ‘15/16 bean planting has just begun, normal for this time of year
  • Said Argentina’s ‘15/16 corn planting is 13% complete, normal for this time of year
  • Estimated Argentina’s ‘15/16 bean crop at 60.0 MMT, unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Argentina’s ‘15/16 corn crop at 21.6 MMT, unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated South America’s total ‘15/16 bean production at 174.3 MMT
  • Estimated South America’s total ‘15/16 corn production at 110.2 MMT
  • Estimated US 2015 corn yield at 165.0 BPA unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated US 2015 bean yield at 46.5 BPA unchanged from previous estimate

Today was the first day of the Goldman Sachs / UBS roll. They are rolling long November bean and Dec bean oil and soy meal positions into Jan. Roll ends on Tuesday.

Today was the fourth day of the Deutsche Bank roll, roll ends tomorrow . They are rolling long Nov 2015 bean positions into Nov 2016 beans.

American Fats and Oils Association Conference in New York ends tomorrow.

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat sold 5,000
  • Corn sold 5,000
  • Beans bought 4,000
  • Meal bought 2,000
  • Bean oil sold 2,000

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST. Expecting

o   Wheat – 175 – 375,000 tons

o   Corn – 550 – 750,000 tons

o   Beans – 700,000 – 1.2 million tons

o   Meal – 50 – 350,000 tons

o   Bean oil – 0 – 40,000 tons

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST , expecting +99 BCF
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out on Monday with their September palm oil data report

USDA’s October supply and demand and production report comes out Friday at 11 am CST.  

  • Estimates are based on what analysts think the USDA will report on Friday .

Estimates for ‘15/16 US corn and soybean production

  • Corn production (21 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 13.504 BB, range of estimates are 13.283 -13.798 BB. USDA Sept estimate was 13.585 BB
  • Corn yield (21 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 167.1 BPA, range of estimates are 165.0 -169.5 BPA. USDA Sept estimate was 167.5 BPA
  • Corn harvested acres (20 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 80.826 MA, range of estimates are 80.430-81.403 MA. USDA Sept estimate was 81.101 MA
  • Soybean production (21 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 3.908 BB, range of estimates are 3.830-3.975 BB. USDA Sept estimate was 3.935 BB
  • Soybean yield (21 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 47.2 BPA, range of estimates are 46.5 – 47.7 BPA. USDA Sept estimate was 47.1 BPA
  • Soybean harvested acres (20 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 82.914 MA, range of estimates are 82.213 – 83.900 MA. USDA Sept estimate was 83.549 MA

Estimates for ‘15/16 US ending stocks

  • Wheat (19 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .819 BB, range of estimates are .765 -.891 BB. USDA Sept estimate was .875 BB
  • Corn (20 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 1.534 BB, range of estimates are 1.339 -1.750 BB. USDA Sept estimate was 1.592 BB
  • Beans (20 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .414 BB, range of estimates are .300 -.475 BB. USDA Sept estimate was .450 BB

Estimates for ‘14/15 world ending stocks:

  • Wheat (8 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 211.37 MMT, range of estimates are 210.00 -212.79 MMT. USDA Sept estimate was 211.31 MMT.
  • Corn (7 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 196.97 MMT, range of estimates are 195.00 -198.00 MMT. USDA Sept estimate was 197.21 MMT.
  • Beans (8 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 78.11 MMT, range of estimates are 77.50- 78.56 MMT. USDA Sept estimate was 78.73 MMT.

Estimates for ‘15/16 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (13 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 224.76 MMT, range of estimates are 222.19-226.00 MMT . USDA Sept estimate was 226.56 MMT
  • Corn (13 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 188.73 MMT, range of estimates are 184.85-193.00 MMT . USDA Sept estimate was 189.69 MMT
  • Beans (14 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 84.41 MMT, range of estimates are 82.00 -86.50 MMT . USDA Sept estimate was 84.98 MMT

Option players:

  • TJM bought 2,500 Nov bean 920 calls at 6 ½ -7
  • RJO bought 1,000 x 2,000 Nov bean 940-1020 1×2 call spreads at 2 7/8 -3
  • ABN bought 1,000 Jan bean 920 calls at 22 ¼ -22 ½
  • Cunningham bought 2,000 July corn 540-600 call spreads at 3 1/8 tied to July futures at 415 ½
  • FI bought 800 Nov corn 385-370 put spreads at 2 ¾ -3 1/8
  • JP Morgan sold 1,000 March corn 430 calls at 13 ½ tied to March futures at 405
  • Rand sold 1,000 Dec corn 400 calls at 11-11 1/8
  • Rosenthal bought 800 Nov wheat 495 – 470 put spreads at 1 7/8 – 2
  • RJO bought 500 Dec wheat 480-460 put spreads at 2 ¼
  • EDF Mann bought 500 Dec wheat 500-480 put spreads at 5 ¼ tied to Dec futures at 523
  • Drax sold 500 Jan meal 270-250 put spreads at 1.20 tied to Jan futures at 305.80
  • RJO sold 1,000 Dec meal 360 calls at .50
  • RJO sold 800 Dec meal 270 puts at 1.00
  • EDF Mann bought 200 March bean oil 2750 puts and sold 200 March bean oil 36 calls at 80 debit

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

Corn:

X15 400 18.25 / 18.75 26.50%

Z15 400 27 / 27.50 24.25%

F16 410 34 / 35 22.75%

H16 410 46 / 46.75 23.25%

K16 420 55.50 / 56.50 23.25%

N16 420 65.50 / 66.50 23.50%

Z16 420 78.50 / 79.50 22.25%

Beans:

X15 890 34 / 36 23.00%

Z15 900 51 / 53 20.75%

F16 900 65 / 67 19.75%

H16 900 82 / 84 19.00%

K16 900 92 / 94 17.50%

N16 900 104 / 107 17.25%

U16 900 115 / 119 17.25%

X16 900 122 / 127 17.00%

Wheat:

X15 520 24.50 / 25.50 27.75%

Z15 520 37.50 / 38.50 26.00%

H16 520 63.50 / 64.75 25.25%

K16 530 78.50 / 80.50 25.50%

N16 540 90 / 93 25.50%

KC Wheat:

X15 510 23 / 24.50 27.00%

Z15 510 46 / 48 25.00%

H16 520 61 / 63 25.00%

K16 530 78 / 80 25.00%

N16 540 89 / 93 25.00%

Minneapolis wheat:
Z15 530 31 / 35 21.75%

H16 550 56  / 60 22.25%

K16 550 69 / 74 22.25%

N16 560 83 / 88 23.50%

Meal:

X15 305 11.5 / 12.5 23.00%

Z15 300 19.0 / 20.0 22.50%

F16 300 23.5 / 24.5 21.00%

H16 300 29.5 / 30.5 20.50%

K16 300 32.5 / 34.5 19.00%

N16 300 37.0 / 39.0 18.75%

Q16 300 38.5 / 40.5 18.50%

U16 300 39.5 / 42.5 18.25%

V16 300 40.0 / 43.0 17.75%

Z16 300 42.0 / 45.0 17.25%

Bean oil:

X15 28.5 125 / 145 28.25%

Z15 28.5 205 / 225 27.00%

F16 29.0 245 / 265 24.00%

H16 29.0 300 / 330 22.75%

K16 30.0 360 / 400 21.75%

N16 30.0 400 / 440 21.00%

Q16 30.0 420 / 460 20.75%

U16 30.0 440 / 480 20.50%

V16 30.0 440 / 490 20.00%

Z16 30.0 450 / 500 18.75%

Crush quotes

                Open                     Closes

Oct         91.0-93.5              91.5-94.0

Dec        97.0-98.0              97.5-98.0

DecJan  93.0-94.0             93.0-94.0

Jan         93.5-94.5              94.0-95.0

Mch       88.5-89.5              89.5-90.0

May       83.0-84.0              83.5-84.5

Jly           80.0-81.0              80.0-81.0

Aug        80.5-82.0              80.5-83.0

Sep        82.5-88.0              85.0-88.0

Oct6       —     -87.0             82.0-87.0

Dec6      84.5-86.5              85.5-86.5

 

 

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE