From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 10/06/15

Algeria is in for optional origin wheat for Nov-Dec shipment

Israel seeks 80,000 tons of optional origin corn for Nov – Jan shipment

Israel seeks 55,000 tons of optional origin feed wheat for Nov – Jan shipment

Russia’s Ag Min estimated ‘15/16 exportable grain surplus at 30.0 MMT

SovEcon said Russia may buy up to 2.0 MMT of grain for state reserves in 2016.

SovEcon said Russia currently has 1.9 MMT of grain in reserves

  • Russia’s Ag Min said Russia should have no less than 3.5 MMT of grain in stocks

UkrAgroConsult said Ukraine traders and Ukraine Ag Min have reached an agreement to export 16.5 MMT of wheat in ‘15/16 , 16.0 MMT of corn and 3.8 MMT of barley .

Ukraine Ag Min estimated ‘15/16 grain exports at 36.0 MMT vs. 35.0 MMT in ‘14/15

Today was the third day of the Deutsche Bank roll, roll ends Thursday . They are rolling long Nov 2015 bean positions into Nov 2016 beans.

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat bought 8,000
  • Corn bought 9,000
  • Beans bought 4,000
  • Meal even
  • Bean oil bought 1,000

Upcoming reports/events:

  • China on holiday . China markets closed again tomorrow. Trade resumes Thursday.  
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST.
  • Bank of Japan’s two day policy meeting continues, started this morning ends tomorrow morning.

o   Analysts expect BOJ to take measures to boost economy.

  • American Fats and Oils Association Conference in New York tomorrow and Thursday.
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST. Expecting

o   Crude a build of 2.0 million barrels

o   Gas unchanged

o   Distillates a draw of 800,000 barrels

  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Goldman Sachs / UBS index fund roll for Nov beans and Dec meal and bean oil begins tomorrow. They will be rolling long Nov / Dec positions into Jan. Roll runs for 5 days.

Option players:

Corn:

RJO bot 2000 X 390-370 put spreads

RJO bot 2000 Z 450 calls/sold 2000 Z 350 puts

RJO bot 750 X 370 puts

RJO sold 1000 short dated G 420-435 call spreads

Rand sold 1500 Z 400 straddles

ICAP sold 1000 Z 400 calls

ICAP sold 600 Z 400-420 call spreads

ICAP bot 1000 Z 370 puts

ICAP sold 500 Z 400 straddles

JPM sold 1000 Z 430 calls-370 put strangles

JPM sold 600 Z 380 puts/bot 600 Z 420 calls covered

Macquarie sold 1000 X 400-410 call spreads covered

FI bot 500 X 385-370 put spreads covered

FI sold 600 Z 380 puts/bot 600 Z 420 calls covered

FI bot 500 X 385-370 put spreads

Macquarie bot 400 Z 360 puts

Beans:

ABN bot 3000 F 880 puts covered

RJO sold 750 F 900 straddles

Man bot 750 X 810 puts

Man bot 400 X 880 calls

FI sold 500 X 860 puts covered

Man bot 500 week 2 860 puts

Meal:

Macquarie sold 1000 Z’16 260 puts covered

FCS bot 600 Z 290 puts

RJO sold 250 X 315 calls

Drax sold 500 X 300-280 put spreads covered

Drax bot 500 Z 290-270 put spreads/sold 500 Z 310 calls covered

Oil:

Drax sold 500 X 28-27 put spreads covered

Drax sold 500 F 26-35 put spreads covered

Macquarie sold 500 Z 27-26 put spreads covered

ICAP sold 500 Z 29 calls

Man sold 200 N 27 puts

RJO bot 200 Z 29 calls

Rosenthal sold 200 Z 29 calls

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

Corn:

X15 400 17.50 / 18.25 25.25%

Z15 400 26.75 / 27.25 24.00%

F16 410 34.25 / 35.25 22.75%

H16 410 46.25 / 47.25 23.50%

K16 410 56.25 / 57.25 23.50%

N16 420 66.50 / 68 23.75%

Z16 420 78.50 / 79.50 22.25%

Beans:

X15 890 34 / 36 22.50%

Z15 900 51 / 53 20.50%

F16 900 64 / 66 19.50%

H16 900 82 / 84 19.00%

K16 900 92 / 94 17.75%

N16 900 105 / 108 17.50%

U16 900 116 / 120 17.50%

X16 900 122 / 127 17.00%

Wheat:

X15 520 25 / 26 26.00%

Z15 520 37.50 / 39 26.25%

H16 530 64.50 / 66.50 25.50%

K16 530 78 / 81 25.50%

N16 530 89 / 92 25.50%

KC Wheat:

X15 510 23 / 25 26.50%

Z15 510 36 / 39 26.00%

H16 520 63 / 65 25.50%

K16 530 78 / 81 25.00%

N16 540 90 / 93 25.00%

Minneapolis wheat:
Z15 540 32 / 36 22.75%

H16 550 57 / 61 22.75%

K16 560 71 / 76 22.75%

N16 570 83 / 88 23.50%

Meal:

X15 305 11.5 / 12.5 22.75%

Z15 300 18.5 / 19.5 22.25%

F16 300 23.0 / 24.0 21.00%

H16 300 29.5 / 30.5 20.50%

K16 300 32.5 / 34.5 19.00%

N16 300 37.0 / 39.0 18.75%

Q16 300 38.5 / 40.5 18.50%

U16 300 39.5 / 42.5 18.25%

V16 300 40.0 / 43.0 17.75%

Z16 300 42.0 / 45.0 17.25%

Bean oil:

X15 28.5 130 / 150 28.25%

Z15 28.5 210 / 230 27.25%

F16 29.0 250 / 270 24.25%

H16 29.0 310 / 340 23.00%

K16 30.0 370 / 410 22.25%

N16 30.0 410 / 450 21.50%

Q16 30.0 420 / 460 21.00%

U16 30.0 440 / 480 20.50%

V16 30.0 440 / 490 20.00%

Z16 30.0 450 / 500 18.75%

Crush quotes

                Open                     Closes

Oct         91.0-93.5              89.0-91.0

Dec        99.0-99.5              95.5-96.0

JanDec  94.5-96.0             91.5-92.5

Jan         94.5-95.5              92.5-93.0

Mch       89.5-90.5              88.0-88.5

May       82.5-84.0              88.0-88.5

Jly           79.5-80.5              79.0-80.0

Aug        79.5-82.0              80.0-80.5

Sep        82.5-88.0              81.5-88.0

Oct6       70.5-87.0             —     -87.0

Dec6      86.0-87.0              85.0-86.5

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE