From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 10/05/15

Weekly US export inspections report came out today at 10 am CST

  • Wheat at 557,109 tons, expecting 450-650,000 tons
  • Corn at 469,697 tons, expecting 750-900,000 tons
  • Beans at 1,122,669 tons, expecting 450-600,000 tons

Abiove estimated 2016 Brazilian bean crop at 97.8 MMT (record)

Abiove estimated 2016 Brazilian bean exports at 52.8 MMT (record)

Abiove estimated 2015 Brazilian bean crop at 94.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 94.4 MMT

Abiove estimated 2015 Brazilian bean exports at 52.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 50.3 MMT

Abiove estimated 2016 Brazilian soy meal exports at 14.8 MMT vs. 2015 meal exports of 15.2 MMT

Abiove estimated 2016 Brazilian bean oil exports at 1.37 MMT vs. 2015 bean oil exports of 1.35 MMT  

AgRural said as of October 2nd Brazil has planted 3% of their 2016 bean crop unchanged from a year ago 

IMEA said as of October 1st Mato Grosso’s bean crop is 1.67% planted vs. .55% a week ago and vs. 4.6% a year ago

Soybean Processors Association of India estimated India’s 2015 soybean crop at 8.6 MMT down 3.97% from 2014 crop and vs. USDA September estimate of 11.5 MMT

Soybean Processors Association of India estimated India’s 2015 soy meal exports at below 646,000 tons

  • Brazil , Argentina, and US soy meal trading at $100-$150 per ton discount to India soy meal

Ciara-CEC said for the week ending October 2nd Argentina sold $298 million  grains and oilseeds vs. $231 million the week before.  

Forecaster Speedwell said Russia wheat areas did receive some rain , but more is needed , scattered light rains in forecast for the next 2 weeks

  • Rains in Russia are 45% below average since the start of planting in August

Forecaster Speedwell said Russia may get frost next week.

Russia’s Ag Min data showed 2.7 MH of crops were killed or damaged from dry weather previously expecting that 1.4 MH of crop land was damaged /killed.

Russia’s Ag Min said as of today Russia wheat harvest is about 96% complete. Russia harvested 62.3 MMT of wheat vs. 59.3 MMT a year ago

Russia’s Ag Min said Russia’s 2016 crops were planted on 12.8 MH vs. 12.9 MH planted a year ago

IKAR estimated Russia’s ‘15/16 total grain crop at 103.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 104.0 MMT

IKAR estimated Russia’s ‘15/16 wheat crop at 60.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 60.8 MMT

IKAR estimated Russia’s ‘15/16 barley crop at 16.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 17.1 MMT

Ukraine Ag Min said as of today Ukraine has harvested 43.5 MMT of grain

Egypt’s supplies minister said Egypt has enough wheat stocks to last until the first week of March.

Today was the second day of the Deutsche Bank roll, roll ends Thursday . They are rolling long Nov 2015 bean positions into Nov 2016 beans.

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat bought 2,000
  • Corn bought 6,000
  • Beans bought 7,000
  • Meal bought 3,000
  • Bean oil bought 6,000

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST. Expecting

o   Corn harvest 28-32% complete

o   Bean harvest 37-43% complete

o   Winter wheat planting about 53% complete

  • China on holiday . Markets closed today through Wednesday. Trade resumes Thursday.  
  • Bank of Japan two day policy meeting begins tonight/tomorrow .

o   Analysts expect BOJ to take measures to boost economy.

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST.
  • American Fats and Oils Association Conference in New York Wednesday and Thursday.

Option players:

  • FI bought 2,000 Nov bean 860-840 put spreads at 5-5 ¼
  • UBS sold 1,000 Nov bean 850 puts at 6
  • FI sold 500 Nov bean 840 puts at 4 5/8
  • Macquarie sold 750 Nov bean 860 puts at 9 ¼ tied to Nov futures at 880
  • ABN bought 2,000 Dec 2016 corn 350 puts and sold 2,000 July corn 350 puts at 4 debit
  • ICAP bought 1,000 Nov corn 400 calls at 5 5/8
  • JP Morgan sold 900 Nov corn 390 calls at 8 ¾ -9 ½
  • JP Morgan sold 600 Dec corn 410 calls at 6 5/8 tied to Dec futures at 392.
  • RJO sold 500 Nov corn 385 puts at 6 ¾
  • Macquarie sold 500 Dec corn 370 puts at 5 ¼ tied to Dec futures at 390
  • Dowd Westcott sold 500 Dec corn 330 / 375 put spreads at 6 tied to Dec futures at 391.
  • Division of New Edge bought 400 Nov wheat 550 calls at 3 3/8
  • JP Morgan bought 300 May wheat 520 straddles at 78 ½ tied to May futures at 524
  • JP Morgan bought 200 Dec meal 300 puts at 8.50
  • FC Stone sold 200 Nov meal 300 puts at 4.50
  • FC Stone bought 500 Dec meal 290 puts at 4.20-4.25
  • FI bought 400 Dec bean oil 2950 calls and sold 200 Dec bean oil 2700 calls at 59 credit
  • EDF Mann bought 200 Jan bean oil 26 puts at 30

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

Corn:

X15 395 17 / 18 24.50%

Z15 395 26.25 / 27.25 23.75%

F16 405 34.25 / 35.25 23.00%

H16 400 45.50 / 46.50 23.50%

K16 410 55.50 / 57.50 23.25%

N16 410 65 / 66 23.50%

Z16 410 76.50 / 78 22.25%

Beans:

X15 880 34 / 36 22.00%

Z15 880 50 / 52 20.00%

F16 880 63 / 65 19.00%

H16 900 81 / 83 18.75%

K16 900 92 / 94 17.50%

N16 900 103 / 107 17.25%

U16 900 116 / 120 17.50%

X16 900 122 / 127 17.00%

Wheat:

X15 520 24 / 25 25.75%

Z15 520 37.50 / 39 25.50%

H16 520 63 / 65 25.25%

K16 520 77 / 79 25.00%

N16 530 89 / 91 25.00%

KC Wheat:

X15 500 22 / 24 25.50%

Z15 500 34 / 36 24.50%

H16 520 61 / 64 24.50%

K16 530 75 / 78 24.75%

N16 540 88 / 92 24.75%

Meal:

X15 305 12.0 / 13.0 23.00%

Z15 300 18.5 / 19.5 22.00%

F16 300 23.0 / 24.0 21.00%

H16 300 29.5 / 30.5 20.50%

K16 300 33.0 / 35.0 19.25%

N16 300 37.0 / 39.0 18.75%

Q16 300 38.5 / 40.5 18.50%

U16 300 40.0 / 43.0 18.25%

V16 300 40.0 / 43.0 17.75%

Z16 300 42.0 / 45.0 17.25%

Bean oil:

X15 28.5 130 / 150 27.50%

Z15 28.5 205 / 225 26.50%

F16 29.0 250 / 270 24.00%

H16 29.0 300 / 330 22.50%

K16 29.0 350 / 390 21.50%

N16 29.0 400 / 440 21.25%

Q16 29.0 410 / 450 20.75%

U16 29.0 430 / 470 20.25%

V16 29.0 430 / 470 19.50%

Z16 29.0 450 / 500 19.00%

Crush quotes

                Open                     Closes

Oct         91.5-94.0              90.0-92.0

Dec        99.5-100.5            99.0-99.5

JanDec  95.0-96.0             94.5-96.0

Jan         95.0-96.0              95.0-96.0

Mch       89.5-90.0              90.0-91.0

May       83.0-83.5              83.5-84.0

Jly           79.5-81.0              80.0-80.5

Aug        79.5-82.0              80.5-82.0

Sep        —     -88.0              —     -88.0

Oct         —    – 87.0              —     -87.0

Dec6      83.5-87.0              86.0-87.0

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE