From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 10-29-15

Today was position day for November futures. Tomorrow is first notice day.

  • Most analysts are not expecting any soybean deliveries tonight , some analysts are expecting light deliveries mostly out of Chicago

o   Reuters poll estimated soybean deliveries for tonight at 0-500.

o   As of yesterday afternoon there were no soybean receipts registered

  • As of yesterday afternoon there were 41,682 November soybean contracts opened, down 26,836 contracts from the day before

Egypt GASC bought 240,000 tons of wheat for December shipment

  • 60,000 tons from Poland
  • 60,000 tons from Romania
  • 120,000 tons from France

Ethiopia government still in negotiations on wheat tender. Ethiopia seeking to buy 1.0 MMT of wheat , lowest offer was thought to be Black Sea origin

India has bought 7,000 tons of non-GMO soymeal from China, first time in several years India has bought soymeal from China.

IGC estimated ‘15/16 global wheat output at 726.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 727.0 MMT

IGC estimated ‘15/16 global corn output at 970.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 967.0 MMT

Argentine economic research firm says odds of Macri victory in presidential election on Nov 22 at 75%.

Massa, who finished 3rd in Sunday’s first round, seems to be signaling support for Macri, not Scioli. This is very good news for opening up the Argentine economy.

Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report came out today at 930 am CST at +63 BCF, expecting +69 BCF

Rogers roll started today and ends Monday. They are rolling long December bean oil and soy meal positions into January and will be rolling long Dec wheat and Dec corn positions to March.

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat bought 6,000
  • Corn bought 7,000
  • Beans sold 4,000
  • Meal bought 3,000
  • Bean oil sold 4,000

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Tomorrow is month end.
  • Bank of Japan policy meeting is tonight/tomorrow morning

o   Most analysts expecting BOJ will take measures to boost economy

  • SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s October palm oil exports tomorrow
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST.

o   Analysts expecting about 92% of the US soybean crop will be harvested by Sunday

o   Analysts expecting about 85% of the US corn crop will be harvested by Sunday.

Option players:

  • RJO sold 1,000 Dec soybean 870 puts at 8 ¼ -8 ½
  • Rosenthal bought 1,000 March bean 860 puts and sold 1,000 Jan bean 860 puts at 9 3/8
  • RJO sold 1,000 Jan bean 820 puts at 3 5/8 – 3 ¾
  • ICAP sold 1,500 Dec corn 385 calls at 5
  • ICAP bought 1,200 Dec corn 380 calls at 6 5/8 – 7 3/8 tied to Dec futures at 379 and 379 ½
  • FI sold 700 Dec / Jan wheat 540 call calendars at 6 ¾ -6 5/8 tied to Dec futures at 514
  • Drax bought 500 Dec wheat 490 /480 put spreads at 1 ½
  • ICAP bought 500 Dec wheat 520 / 540 call spreads at 5 3/8
  • Rosenthal sold 800 Dec KC wheat 480 c / 500 p strangles at 31 ½
  • FI sold 500 Jan meal 290 puts at 4.30
  • FI sold 500 Jan meal 290 puts at 4.00 tied to Dec meal futures at 300.80
  • FI sold 2,000 Dec bean oil 30 calls at 14
  • FI sold 2,500 Dec bean oil 30 / 32 call stupids at 16

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

Corn:

Z15 380 14 / 14.50 19.00%

F16 390 21.75 / 22.25 18.00%

G16 390 30.75 / 31.50 20.75%

H16 390 36 / 36.75 21.00%

K16 400 47.50 / 48.50 21.75%

N16 400 56.75 / 57.75 22.25%

U16 400 67 / 68.50 23.50%

Z16 400 74.50 / 75.50 22.50%

Z17 410 89 / 93 19.75%

Beans:

Z15 880 27 / 29 16.25%

F16 880 42 / 44 15.50%

H16 880 65 / 67 16.75%

K16 900 81 / 84 16.50%

N16 900 98 / 102 17.25%

U16 900 110 / 115 17.25%

X16 900 118 / 123 17.00%

Wheat:

Z15 510 21.75 / 23 22.00%

F16 520 35 / 36.50 22.00%

H16 520 53 / 54.50 23.50%

K16 520 69 / 71 24.00%

N16 520 82 / 83.50 24.50%

KC Wheat:

Z15 490 19.50 / 21 21.00%

F16 500 32.50 / 34.50 21.00%

H16 500 51 / 53 23.00%

K16 510 65 / 68 23.50%

N16 520 78 / 81 24.00%

Minneapolis wheat:
Z15 520 20 / 23 20.25%

H16 530 48 / 52 21.00%

K16 540 64 / 69 22.50%

N16 550 78 / 82 23.00%

Meal:

Z15 300 10.0 / 11.0 18.00%

F16 300 16.0 / 17.0 17.50%

H16 300 24.0 / 25.0 18.25%

K16 300 29.0 / 30.0 17.75%

N16 300 34.0 / 35.5 18.00%

Q16 300 35.5 / 37.5 18.00%

U16 300 37.5 / 39.5 17.75%

V16 300 38.5 / 40.5 17.50%

Z16 300 40.0 / 43.0 16.75%

Bean oil:

Z15 28.0 125 / 145 24.50%

F16 28.0 185 / 205 21.75%

H16 29.0 280 / 310 22.50%

K16 29.0 340 / 370 22.00%

N16 29.0 380 / 410 21.25%

Q16 29.0 400 / 430 21.00%

U16 29.0 410 / 450 20.50%

V16 29.0 420 / 470 20.25%

Z16 29.0 450 / 500 20.00%

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE