From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 10-19-15

Rains in forecast this week for Black Sea region and US Plains

Rains in the forecast next week for northern Brazil.

India has raised  import tax on wheat to 25% from 10%

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s ‘15/16 soybean area at 19.8 MH (first estimate made) up 1% from ‘14/15 area

AgRural said the Brazilian bean crop is 13% planted vs. 10% a year ago and vs. 18% average

Parana bean crop is about 42% planted , above average

Mato Grosso is 14% planted vs. 9% a year ago

Ukraine Ag Min estimated 2015 Ukraine corn crop at 22.9 MMT vs. 2014 crop of 28.5 MMT

Jordan seeks 100,000 tons of hard wheat and 100,000 tons of barley , optional origin

Weekly US export inspections report came out today at 10 am CST

  • Wheat at 205,468 tons , expecting 300-500,000 tons
  • Corn at 459,812 tons , expecting 500-700,000 tons
  • Beans at 2.365 million tons , expecting 1.2-1.8 million tons

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat sold 5,000
  • Corn sold 6,000
  • Beans sold 7,000
  • Meal sold 2,000
  • Bean oil sold 3,000

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on today at 3 pm CST

o   First US winter wheat conditions are expected to come out in this afternoon’s report.  

o   Corn harvest expecting 55-60% complete vs. average of 53%

o   Bean harvest expecting 70-75% complete vs. average of 66%

  • SGS and Intertek Agri Services will estimate Malaysia’s Oct 1-20th palm oil exports tomorrow
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST.

Option players:

  • TJM sold 1,500 Jan bean 920-900 put spreads and bought 1,500 Jan bean 860-840 put spreads at 7 1/8 -7 ¼ credit
  • Drax bought 800 May bean 980-1020 call spreads at 7 3/8 tied to May futures at 908
  • RJO sold 1,000 week 2 corn 375 puts at 7 ¾
  • ICAP bought 1,000 Dec corn 400 calls at 1 ¾
  • EDF Mann sold 500 Dec wheat 495-480 put spreads at 8 tied to Dec futures at 487
  • ABN bought 1,000 Dec/March wheat -5 CSOs at 1 ¼
  • RJO sold 1,000 Dec wheat 540 calls at 1 3/8
  • Rand bought 500 March meal 300 puts at 10.25
  • Macquarie sold 500 Dec meal 300 puts at 2.50 tied to Dec futures at 312.00
  • RJO sold 500 Dec bean oil 27 / 30 strangles at 57 tied to Dec futures at 2828
  • RJO bought 500 July bean oil 31 calls at 125
  • FI bought 500 Dec 32-33 bean oil call spreads at 4

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

Corn:

X15 375 6 / 7 19.25%

Z15 375 17.50 / 18 19.75%

F16 380 24.25 / 25 18.75%

H16 380 36 ¼ / 37 20.50%

K16 390 46 / 47 20.75%

N16 400 56 / 57 21.50%

U16 390 64.50 / 66 22.75%

Z16 400 71.25 / 72.25 21.50%

Beans:

X15 890 12 / 14

Z15 900 35 / 37 16.75%

F16 900 52 / 54 16.75%

H16 900 70 / 72 17.00%

K16 900 84 / 87 16.75%

N16 900 99 / 103 16.75%

U16 900 110 / 115 16.75%

X16 900 118 / 123 16.75%

Wheat:

X15 490 10 / 11 21.50%

Z15 490 25.50 / 26.50 21.75%

H16 490 49.50 / 51 22.50%

K16 500 64 / 66 23.00%

N16 500 76 / 78 23.25%

KC Wheat:

X15 470 9 / 11 21.50%

Z15 470 23 / 25 21.50%

H16 490 49 / 51 21.75%

K16 500 64 / 67 22.75%

N16 510 76 / 79 23.00%

Minneapolis wheat:
Z15 505 23 / 27 20.00%

H16 520 46 / 50 20.25%

K16 530 58 / 62 20.25%

N16 540 72 / 77 21.75%

Meal:

X15 310 5.5 / 6.5

Z15 310 13.5 / 14.5 19.00%

F16 310 19.5 / 20.5 19.00%

H16 310 26.5 / 27.5 18.75%

K16 310 31.0 / 32.5 18.00%

N16 310 35.5 / 37.5 18.00%

Q16 310 37.5 / 39.5 18.00%

U16 310 39.5 / 41.5 17.75%

V16 310 39.0 / 42.0 17.25%

Z16 310 42.0 / 45.0 16.75%

Bean oil:

X15 28.5 55 / 75

Z15 28.5 160 / 180 23.50%

F16 28.5 210 / 230 22.50%

H16 29.0 275 / 305 22.00%

K16 29.0 330 / 370 21.00%

N16 29.0 370 / 410 20.50%

Q16 29.0 380 / 420 20.00%

U16 29.0 400 / 440 19.75%

V16 29.0 410 / 460 19.75%

Z16 29.0 440 / 490 19.00%

Crush quotes

                Open                     Closes

Dec        101.0-102.0         102.0-102.5

JanDec  97.0-98.0             97.0-98.0

Jan         96.5-98.0              97.5-98.5

Mch       91.5-92.5              92.5-93.0

May       85.0-87.0              86.0-86.5

July        81.0-83.0              82.0-82.5

Aug        80.5-81.0              82.0-83.5

Sep        85.0-92.0              85.0-92.0

Oct         86.5-89.0              85.0-87.0

Dec        87.0-89.0              86.0-86.5

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE